Analysis The Rebuild Of Essendon And North Melbourne And Their Future Prospects

[Engimal v3]

tbh I'm just sad the great Jamie Macmillan has retired.

Why?

 

[owen87]

Why?

Why not? North Melbourne Champion.

 

[Engimal v3]

Why not? North Melbourne Champion.

I think he sucked

 

[Bjchan13]

I reckon North will beat us

 

[Usayed Givashe]

tbh I'm just sad the great Jamie Macmillan has retired.

Not as sad as Tippa and Stringer, let’s be honest.

Essendon going well at moment, better availability and more advanced across the board than us.

 

[citizen-erased]

I reckon North will beat us

We have a decent enough draw that we can (but won't) win 11 of the next 16. Which would put us on 13 wins for the year.
I'd be happy with 8 wins for the year, and it's handy we dodge the better teams in double ups.
1x West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Richmond, Dogs and Port.

Absolutely should be winning both North games.
I'd argue GWS, Crows, Swans & Dockers games at home too.

Those 6, plus the 2 we have, is a good year for a team tipped for bottom 3.
Return bout v Pies & Hawks and the Carlton game this week would also be nice

 

[B4Bear]

We have a decent enough draw that we can (but won't) win 11 of the next 16. Which would put us on 13 wins for the year.
I'd be happy with 8 wins for the year, and it's handy we dodge the better teams in double ups.
1x West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Richmond, Dogs and Port.

Absolutely should be winning both North games.
I'd argue GWS, Crows, Swans & Dockers games at home too.

Those 6, plus the 2 we have, is a good year for a team tipped for bottom 3.
Return bout v Pies & Hawks and the Carlton game this week would also be nice

So another mid-table finish. Not saying that to have a go at you, but that is where we have been for 20 years.

Not good enough for a flag. Too good for decent draft picks.

Now don't get me wrong; this year sucks dogs' balls. Would much rather get a few wins; hell a loss under 20 points would be nice at this stage.

The only, and I mean only consolation is that we will get a good pick this year, and most likely next year too. Painful, but being mired in 20 years of mediocrity has to end for the long term health of the club.

 

[carnthedons]

So another mid-table finish. Not saying that to have a go at you, but that is where we have been for 20 years.

Not good enough for a flag. Too good for decent draft picks.

Now don't get me wrong; this year sucks dogs' balls. Would much rather get a few wins; hell a loss under 20 points would be nice at this stage.

The only, and I mean only consolation is that we will get a good pick this year, and most likely next year too. Painful, but being mired in 20 years of mediocrity has to end for the long term health of the club.

We took 3 top 10 picks last year (one of which is a ) and will have at least one more in all likelihood this year. We’ll be ok.

 

[Sphynx]

Most think we are regressing, but I actually think the opposite compared to under Scott/Shaw.

We've unearthed some genuine long term players already this year.

Powell looks a nailed on future A grade midfielder unless something absolutely disastrous happens. Once he a builds up his body he's going to be an outstanding mid. His footy IQ is as good as I've seen in an 18 year old.

Bonar and Atu have really come on as medium defenders also, they look excellent long term prospects in positions we've struggled to fill over the last decade. Both have elite foot speed. Bonar has the unique athletic ability to match up well on the likes of Dangerfield, Fyfe etc when they go forward.

This will be a 3 year process, by which time we will have a pretty outstanding group of young players. I think we will probably add some more younger kids from other clubs like we have with Bonar, Atu, Stephenson in the last few years.

 

[north_lad]

I reckon North will beat us

.....why?

Also... how. We can barely scrape together 6 goals a game. You kicked 16 yesterday.

 

[citizen-erased]

So another mid-table finish. Not saying that to have a go at you, but that is where we have been for 20 years.

Not good enough for a flag. Too good for decent draft picks.

Now don't get me wrong; this year sucks dogs' balls. Would much rather get a few wins; hell a loss under 20 points would be nice at this stage.

The only, and I mean only consolation is that we will get a good pick this year, and most likely next year too. Painful, but being mired in 20 years of mediocrity has to end for the long term health of the club.

Nah, i get it. it's a bit of a balancing act of targeting sharper talent vs. not stymying development & culture

2021 should bat deep enough that finishing 9th-14th is much of a muchness.
With how we hit last years draft as well, i'd be more comfortable building the culture with some wins where we can get them, esp if it means we keep the likes of Merrett as a result.

I don't mind so much finishing 16th or lower, but i'd like to see the momentum continue vs. Truck pulling them back to finish lower.
If we naturally finish bottom 3, that's ok. I'd like to avoid trying to manufacture those results for a pick.

 

[The Prosecutor]

So another mid-table finish. Not saying that to have a go at you, but that is where we have been for 20 years.

Not good enough for a flag. Too good for decent draft picks.

Now don't get me wrong; this year sucks dogs' balls. Would much rather get a few wins; hell a loss under 20 points would be nice at this stage.

The only, and I mean only consolation is that we will get a good pick this year, and most likely next year too. Painful, but being mired in 20 years of mediocrity has to end for the long term health of the club.

There's nothing wrong with a rebuilding team having an encouraging season with 6-7 wins and having a pick in the 3-8 range. In fact most successful rebuilds seem to come from picks in that range.

Look at the Bulldogs for example.

2012

15th with 5 wins

5 - Jake Stringer
6 (ward compensation) - Jack Macrae

2013

15th with 8 wins

4 - Marcus Bontempelli

2014-2016 they didn't have a top 10 pick due to trading for Boyd and, well, winning a flag.

2017

10th with 11 wins

9 - Aaron Naughton

2018

13th with 8 wins

7 - Bailey Smith

 

[Bjchan13]

.....why?

Also... how. We can barely scrape together 6 goals a game. You kicked 16 yesterday.

The 2 youngest teams in the comp, results will vary. Sydney a good example of how young sides can be patchy and they have far more experience than us. North and Essendon games have been close the last few years and i think you're due.

 

[Petrify]

So another mid-table finish. Not saying that to have a go at you, but that is where we have been for 20 years.

Not good enough for a flag. Too good for decent draft picks.

Now don't get me wrong; this year sucks dogs' balls. Would much rather get a few wins; hell a loss under 20 points would be nice at this stage.

The only, and I mean only consolation is that we will get a good pick this year, and most likely next year too. Painful, but being mired in 20 years of mediocrity has to end for the long term health of the club.

Yeah just look at how well bottoming out and getting all the #1 draft picks worked for Carlton... great strategy!

 

[The Prosecutor]

Yeah just look at how well bottoming out and getting all the #1 draft picks worked for Carlton... great strategy!

Melbourne too, Petracca was a hit in 2014 but look at Scully (1), Trengove (2), Watts (1), Toumpas(4) that preceded him from 2008-2012.

 

[north_lad]

Yeah just look at how well bottoming out and getting all the #1 draft picks worked for Carlton... great strategy!

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Dont think ive seen odds like this for a long time.

 

[Psicosis]

Dons approach to list management has been pretty interesting. Kind of went the Hawthorn route, bringing in the likes of Shiel & Smith and paying overs. IMO things could have been far worse then they are if they continued that route, however...

Despite their players wanting out, they've managed to really make the best out of the situation through AFL's compensation system & the fact Carlton paid overs for Saad. As bad as the supp saga was, it netted them McGrath.

Saad, Daniher & The Supp Saga = Perkins, Cox & McGrath.

For what it's worth, I think they're a year or so ahead of Norths rebuild. The 3 first round picks in 2020 is difficult for any side to compete against, but good on them.

 

[Petrify]

Dont think ive seen odds like this for a long time.

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Not quite as lopsided but Essendon vs Geelong in 2011 was $1.05 to $7 and Essendon won. Geelong were 13-0 and Essendon had lost the last 5 in a row, and hadn't beaten Geelong since 2005 at that point.

 

[citizen-erased]

Dons approach to list management has been pretty interesting. Kind of went the Hawthorn route, bringing in the likes of Shiel & Smith and paying overs. IMO things could have been far worse then they are if they continued that route, however...

Despite their players wanting out, they've managed to really make the best out of the situation through AFL's compensation system & the fact Carlton paid overs for Saad. As bad as the supp saga was, it netted them McGrath.

Saad, Daniher & The Supp Saga = Perkins, Cox & McGrath.

For what it's worth, I think they're a year or so ahead of Norths rebuild. The 3 first round picks in 2020 is difficult for any side to compete against, but good on them.

Add Ridley via our nice early 2nd pick too.

Less Hawks top up and more Crazy Vossy lions style i reckon. Close, so we tried to fast-track the gap close at the expense of depth
Paying for it now. Esp 2019 in keeping Daniher and talking Fantasia out of asking for a trade.

I'd like to see us become a draft first team now, with the odd foray into role players (Wright/Hind) at cheap prices or FA's (Would love George Hewett this year)

 

[The Prosecutor]

Dons approach to list management has been pretty interesting. Kind of went the Hawthorn route, bringing in the likes of Shiel & Smith and paying overs. IMO things could have been far worse then they are if they continued that route, however...

Despite their players wanting out, they've managed to really make the best out of the situation through AFL's compensation system & the fact Carlton paid overs for Saad. As bad as the supp saga was, it netted them McGrath.

Saad, Daniher & The Supp Saga = Perkins, Cox & McGrath.

For what it's worth, I think they're a year or so ahead of Norths rebuild. The 3 first round picks in 2020 is difficult for any side to compete against, but good on them.

I think we may be an extra year ahead to be honest.

The 15-16 drafts are starting to bear fruit for us now (McGrath, Parish, Ridley, Draper, Francis, Redman and even McDonald-Tipunwuti in the rookie draft) which is enabling our youngsters to come in and perform with extra protection. I'm not sure North has that core of 22-24 year olds to facilitate that development.

I see us more similar to the Bulldogs of 2013 at the moment. Multiple top selections last year that look to have been excellent choices and and a likely 8ish win, top 4 selection this year with a good 22-24-year old core in place.

 

[north_lad]

Not quite as lopsided but Essendon vs Geelong in 2011 was $1.05 to $7 and Essendon won. Geelong were 13-0 and Essendon had lost the last 5 in a row, and hadn't beaten Geelong since 2005 at that point.

some plonker chucked a cool mill on the Cats too. Woops

 

[blitzer]

These things can shift quickly but I'd say we are probably 2 years ahead of North. I think Essendon will be challenging for the top 8 next year (assuming we can retain Merrett). Our depth and quality in the 22-28 bracket is miles ahead of North.
I also wouldn't trade our 1st and 2nd years for North's. Cox, Perkins, Reid & Jones I think are excellent prospects. Nick Bryan (2nd year ruck) looks set to get an AFL debut very soon. Eyres & Brand may be something but are your typical unproven first years KP's.
Cox I reckon will be the best of all of them, what he's doing this year as a 200cm 19 year old is pretty incredible. Could see his attributes scaling into an elite player in the competition in the future.

Anyway with rebuilds the main thing is where you end rather than how quickly you get there. So North may eventually reap the rewards of gutting their list but I do reckon they'll need more time. North will likely get a pick 1 and another top 4 pick. I think this year will be our highest pick in the next couple of years and isn't even guaranteed to be a top 4 pick (although we could still finish as low as 2nd last on the flipside).

 

[Sphynx]

These things can shift quickly but I'd say we are probably 2 years ahead of North. I think Essendon will be challenging for the top 8 next year (assuming we can retain Merrett). Our depth and quality in the 22-28 bracket is miles ahead of North.
I also wouldn't trade our 1st and 2nd years for North's. Cox, Perkins, Reid & Jones I think are excellent prospects. Nick Bryan (2nd year ruck) looks set to get an AFL debut very soon. Eyres & Brand may be something but are your typical unproven first years KP's.
Cox I reckon will be the best of all of them, what he's doing this year as a 200cm 19 year old is pretty incredible. Could see his attributes scaling into an elite player in the competition in the future.

Anyway with rebuilds the main thing is where you end rather than how quickly you get there. So North may eventually reap the rewards of gutting their list but I do reckon they'll need more time. North will likely get a pick 1 and another top 4 pick. I think this year will be our highest pick in the next couple of years and isn't even guaranteed to be a top 4 pick (although we could still finish as low as 2nd last on the flipside).

I'm not going to get into a pissing contest, but I don't think Essendon's kids "are miles ahead" of Norths.

There's a bit of a gap in the criteria of your first and second year players and 22-28 year olds as well. the 20, 21, 22 year age group where North have ALOT of players.


Darcy Parish is about to hit the sweet spot at 24 years of age your other highest ranked players are Merrett, Ridley, Heppell, Shiel and McGrath.

North's 22 and under still contains Simpkin, McKay, Zurhaar, Larkey, Stephenson, Bonar, LDU, Thomas, Taylor.

I agree with you that Essendon definitely have a much better group of 24-28 year olds, but I'd say on balance North definitely shades that list in the 20-24 year olds where the vast majority of North's list demographic is at the minute.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I'm not going to get into a pissing contest, but I don't think Essendon's kids "are miles ahead" of Norths.

There's a bit of a gap in the criteria of your first and second year players and 22-28 year olds as well. the 20, 21, 22 year age group where North have ALOT of players.


Darcy Parish is about to hit the sweet spot at 24 years of age your other highest ranked players are Merrett, Ridley, Heppell, Shiel and McGrath.

North's 22 and under still contains Simpkin, McKay, Zurhaar, Larkey, Stephenson, Bonar, LDU, Thomas, Taylor.

I agree with you that Essendon definitely have a much better group of 24-28 year olds, but I'd say on balance North definitely shades that list in the 20-24 year olds where the vast majority of North's list demographic is at the minute.

I mean, Simpkin and Larkey were taken in the same draft as McGrath, Ridley and Draper while Zurhaar is the same age as the 2016 crop (23 in a fortnight) but was rookied in 2017.

McKay was in the 2015 draft so same as Parish/Francis.

Stephenson, Bonar and LDU were all taken in the 2017 draft so I don't see how one year difference makes any impact other than attempting to cherry pick a subsection of your list.

Even then, Jones, Ham, Guelfi and Zerk-Thatcher (drafted between 17-19 for us) all played yesterday while Caldwell and Mosquito are injured. Now of that group Caldwell, Jones, Ham and Mosquito might end up being very good players, but if nothing else, we have six players in that three-year span that at least look like being valued role players who are getting games on merit and will likely complement the star power drafted the two years either side of them.