Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

Who has the better prospects?


  • Total voters
    117

Remove this Banner Ad

Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods

Sir Cripps of Carlton House
Mar 26, 2015
8,578
15,749
Bendigo
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Melbourne Tigers Philadelphia 76ers
Betting agencies have both Carlton and Fremantle at identical odds for Top 8 and Premiership.

So yes, stranger things than an event with odds at even money have indeed happened.

😮😮😮
So does that mean that betting agencies expect both teams to finish in exactly the same spot on the ladder?
Surely that's the only logical conclusion if their odds are the same? Would it help if Carlton were $25 and Freo were $26?
To use another metric, it appears that most people in the 2022 ladder thread think the Blues will finish higher than Freo. Generally pretty close and either just inside the 8 or just outside the 8.

What are you even arguing? It's his opinion based on his own knowledge of both lists and the changes that have so far been made from the end of this season.
All he's saying is that he feels comfortable that Blues will finish higher. It's hardly a shock statement worthy of in depth debate. It could be 8th vs 9th. That wouldn't exactly be a shock to most people.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,046
6,629
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
So does that mean that betting agencies expect both teams to finish in exactly the same spot on the ladder?
Surely that's the only logical conclusion if their odds are the same? Would it help if Carlton were $25 and Freo were $26?
To use another metric, it appears that most people in the 2022 ladder thread think the Blues will finish higher than Freo. Generally pretty close and either just inside the 8 or just outside the 8.

What are you even arguing? It's his opinion based on his own knowledge of both lists and the changes that have so far been made from the end of this season.
All he's saying is that he feels comfortable that Blues will finish higher. It's hardly a shock statement worthy of in depth debate. It could be 8th vs 9th. That wouldn't exactly be a shock to most people.
My comment was simply about his quote 'Stranger things have happened [than Freo finishing above Carlton in 2022]', then he doubled down by indicating the odds aren't accurate.

No need to get your knickers in a knot...

By the way, you could probably write your own ticket with any betting agency if you wanted to bet that two different teams will finish in the same spot at the end of the home and away season, so no, that is not what the betting agencies expect...
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Milanista28

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 2, 2014
15,632
25,725
AFL Club
Essendon
Given his main advantage is his size as a mid i'm not sure that's wise. He doesn't have the stribgs to his bow to be playing other positions. Hopefully he just isn't labouring like he was this year.
He bulked up this season and couldn't move, possibly injury related, I just see the bigger guys run from stoppage better than him, He doesn't need to be as big as he was this year IMO, less weight has to be better for his back and legs in the long run?

Anyway he's a watch for me because a lot of people have given him grief the past 2 seasons and think his best is behind him, I think he can reach his best again.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
My comment was simply about his quote 'Stranger things have happened [than Freo finishing above Carlton in 2022]', then he doubled down by indicating the odds aren't accurate.

No need to get your knickers in a knot...
Was clearly an opinion, which has been stated across the entire thread.

I didn’t say the odds are inaccurate, I’ve said that betting markets aren’t a true reflection of the actual odds of an event occurring and largely reflect the finishing positions of teams in the prior season.

Very few are going to part with money in October without at least a few games being played. At this time of year we’re all spinning the wheel.
 

Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods

Sir Cripps of Carlton House
Mar 26, 2015
8,578
15,749
Bendigo
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Melbourne Tigers Philadelphia 76ers
He bulked up this season and couldn't move, possibly injury related, I just see the bigger guys run from stoppage better than him, He doesn't need to be as big as he was this year IMO, less weight has to be better for his back and legs in the long run?

Anyway he's a watch for me because a lot of people have given him grief the past 2 seasons and think his best is behind him, I think he can reach his best again.
He already tried slimming down and getting a running coach. It didn't work, so he went back to his previous playing weight when he was at his best.
Unfortunately he's never going to be a great runner. It won't stop him from being a great player though.
This year he was definitely hampered by injury and by trying to do too much (forcing things to happen instead of letting the game come to him and using his teammates).
 

LoungeLizard

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 15, 2009
10,615
8,497
Gippsland
AFL Club
Collingwood
Maybe take your own advice and not tie yourself up in knots about a common phrase that isn't intended to be taken literally.
Stop trolling.

Attack the topic and not the man.

I voted Freo.

Carlton have sucked me in too many times now, I won't be convinced until they turn the corner.
Appointing Voss is not going to give me hope either, he has already failed once.
 

BarbieITFC

Team Captain
May 11, 2015
571
1,639
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Ipswich Town FC, Leeds Rhinos
Too slow IMO.

That’d be like asking if Jake Lever could play midfield a couple of seasons in, and I think Lever is actually better at ground level.

Hayden Young is more like Tom Doedee with better foot skills.
Oh...

Hayden Young - 20m sprint in combine: 7.94secs
Adam Cerra - 20m sprint in combine: 8.05secs

I hope you don't see speed as being critical for a midfielder because if that's the case you've just traded in a turkey!!
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
Oh...

Hayden Young - 20m sprint in combine: 7.94secs
Adam Cerra - 20m sprint in combine: 8.05secs

I hope you don't see speed as being critical for a midfielder because if that's the case you've just traded in a turkey!!
Almost 8 seconds to straight line 20 metres seems excessive.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
Stop trolling.

Attack the topic and not the man.

I voted Freo.

Carlton have sucked me in too many times now, I won't be convinced until they turn the corner.
Appointing Voss is not going to give me hope either, he has already failed once.
Interesting take given Voss has more finals success as a coach than JLO.

The equivalent would have been JLO making the finals in 2020.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
Are you saying that Voss's 1st attempt at coaching was not a failure?
Depends how you qualify ‘failure’

He made finals in his first season with a poor list, the Lions then bottomed out due to the inertia of losing senior players and future stakeholders.

He rebuilt on the run and almost made finals in 2013 and was then sacked.

To me he actually did a pretty good job given his lack of experience and shocking list which bled talented players on a yearly basis.

So yeh at the same point in time (in contrast to JLO) he’s ahead.
 

LoungeLizard

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 15, 2009
10,615
8,497
Gippsland
AFL Club
Collingwood
Depends how you qualify ‘failure’

He made finals in his first season with a poor list, the Lions then bottomed out due to the inertia of losing senior players and future stakeholders.

He rebuilt on the run and almost made finals in 2013 and was then sacked.

To me he actually did a pretty good job given his lack of experience and shocking list which bled talented players on a yearly basis.

So yeh at the same point in time (in contrast to JLO) he’s ahead.
It seems like you answered no, I think.

I wonder how you would rate Voss if he was appointed coach of a rival team.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,046
6,629
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Look at these premiership projections from January 2021

View attachment 1268710
No wonder Fadge thought Collingwood would finish higher than Melbourne in 2021.

I can see why he avoids gambling.
It's a good point - they were the odds based on the information known at the time.

Unless you 'knew' something about Melbourne, in which case you would have cleaned up on the $23 odds that were on offer?

Not to mention the odds for a Dees v. Doggies Grand Final.

Oh, and I do bet, just not against random nuffies on BigFooty who I don't actually know...

Cleaned up on Carlton missing the 8 again in 2021, and have already started surveying the same suspects for similar bets in 2022.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
It seems like you answered no, I think.

I wonder how you would rate Voss if he was appointed coach of a rival team.
No, you input that one.

Voss was in a bad position at Brisbane, did well given the circumstances and then went on to be a valuable assistant at Port. Ollie Wines credits Voss as a major factor in his ascension this year.

I think Voss is primed for another shot as head coach.
 

LoungeLizard

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 15, 2009
10,615
8,497
Gippsland
AFL Club
Collingwood
No, you input that one.

Voss was in a bad position at Brisbane, did well given the circumstances and then went on to be a valuable assistant at Port. Ollie Wines credits Voss as a major factor in his ascension this year.

I think Voss is primed for another shot as head coach.
Good for you.

I still voted Freo.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
It's a good point - they were the odds based on the information known at the time.

Unless you 'knew' something about Melbourne, in which case you would have cleaned up on the $23 odds that were on offer?

Not to mention the odds for a Dees v. Doggies Grand Final.

Oh, and I do bet, just not against random nuffies on BigFooty who I don't actually know...

Cleaned up on Carlton missing the 8 again in 2021, and have already started surveying the same suspects for similar bets in 2022.
Trying to point in all of this?

This entire thread is a bunch of speculation and innuendo.

You got called out on comparing October odds, which is a pretty pointless crusade because a hell of a lot changes in 11 months time - those changes are exactly what we are discussing and attempting to predict.

It’s hard to believe you gamble at all given you cowered and came up with a bunch of excuses when offered a pretty standard bet with another poster in the Carlton thread.

You do a lot of taking, but clearly don’t have much conviction.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,046
6,629
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
It’s hard to believe you gamble at all given you cowered and came up with a bunch of excuses when offered a pretty standard bet with another poster in the Carlton thread.

You do a lot of taking, but clearly don’t have much conviction.
'A bunch of excuses', like 'Why would I bet against someone I don't know'?!?

I have plenty of people who I know and can vouch for their integrity that I am willing to bet against, in addition to a couple of betting agencies.

Betting against randoms who I clearly don't have a lot of time for on a social media forum, and would probably welch on the bet if they lost?!? No thanks, not for me...
 
Last edited:

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
8,046
6,629
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
You got called out on comparing October odds, which is a pretty pointless crusade because a hell of a lot changes in 11 months time - those changes are exactly what we are discussing and attempting to predict.
Yep, you got me there...

I really should be using September 2022 odds if I knew what I was talking about.

Side note - the odds you presented from January 2021 - 3 of the top 5 fancied teams made the top 4, the other 2 teams that missed being those that won the previous 4 premierships between them.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
'A bunch of excuses', like 'Why would I bet against someone I don't know'?!?

I have plenty of people who I know and can vouch for their integrity that I am willing to bet against, in addition to a couple of betting agencies.

Betting against randoms who I clearly don't have a lot of time for on a social media forum?!? No thanks, not for me...
All that mashing, but zero conviction.

I didn’t have high hopes, but that’s disappointing.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
15,810
23,895
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
Yep, you got me there...

I really should be using September 2022 odds if I knew what I was talking about.

Side note - the odds you presented from January 2021 - 3 of the top 5 fancied teams made the top 4, the other 2 teams that missed being those that won the previous 4 premierships between them.
Yeh mate, Richmond won 3 flags in 4 years, West Coast won the other flag. Good teams usually remain good, it's not rocket science.

Cop it sweet and move on.
 

LoungeLizard

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 15, 2009
10,615
8,497
Gippsland
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yeh mate, Richmond won 3 flags in 4 years, West Coast won the other flag. Good teams usually remain good, it's not rocket science.

Cop it sweet and move on.
Are you claiming victory?

Thread poll shows Fadge has more of a point than you have, all you did was go on a mini melt and now you are claiming victory.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad