Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

Who has the better prospects?


  • Total voters
    258

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Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
9,202
7,776
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Still putting $1 on the field I see

"Pies will finish above Demons and Carlton in 2021"

"Carlton for the spoon 2022"

"Carlton will not make finals in 2022"

"Tigers will win by 60 points plus round 1"
Yep. Care to post the predictions I have been correct on since 2007?

My strike rate in relation to Carlton is sitting at 87.58%.
 

chunkylover53

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2008
8,244
17,896
From Where You'd Rather Be
AFL Club
Carlton
Thanks for alerting me to that opportunity.

I've made a tidy side hustle over the past two decades betting on Carlton to underperform. Why would I stop now?

Remember early 2012, when Carlton were Premiership favourites for 5 minutes?

Oh that's right... it's different now...

Clutching at straws trying to draw comparisons to 2012.

We looked good for 3 rounds, were flag favorites for 1 week, then lost 4 of the next 7; and in those 3 wins looked hardly convincing.

Same stage of the year we are 8-2 and have looked every bit a top 4 side in comparison to others.
 

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chunkylover53

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2008
8,244
17,896
From Where You'd Rather Be
AFL Club
Carlton
Yep. Care to post the predictions I have been correct on since 2007?

My strike rate in relation to Carlton is sitting at 87.58%.

You should admit defeat on this one. We probably have to win 4 more games out of our next 12 to make finals. If you honestly think that won't happen then it's clear you've created your own little reality distortion bubble which isn't healthy.
 

Fadge

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
9,202
7,776
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
You should admit defeat on this one. We probably have to win 4 more games out of our next 12 to make finals. If you honestly think that won't happen then it's clear you've created your own little reality distortion bubble which isn't healthy.
I've already included my bets this season in the 12.42% of my losing bets.

If they implode from here it will just be a pleasant surprise.
 

Red_man2008

Club Legend
Jan 2, 2009
1,441
3,389
Penguin
AFL Club
Carlton
Carlton could arguably win another Coleman with a different full forward in 2022.

Carlton could have Docherty Saad and or Weitering join all Australian ranks.

On our 2023 list we could have 3 AA defenders on our list (1 two time). 2 AA midfielders (both 2 time). Two AA forwards maybe 3 (fisher is the best kick in the afl).

Fremantle may have beaten Carlton so far this year but their spine is horrible. Darcy plays one week misses the next. He’s probably to big atm to be consistent. Lobb, Taberner can’t get on the park together for long enough and park behind Carlton’s duo.

Carlton have depth behind in the midfield in Dow, Carroll, Honey, Philp that are learning their trade playing forward roles. Who is that at freo.

According to inside Carlton with the loss of Jones and front loading contracts Carlton have the salary cap space to add further to holes. I’d be looking at Lachlan scholl on a wing. Potential to add another medium forward or tall defender or ruck.

2023 (or with luck 2022) could be a year Carlton make a GF.
 

Sean_09

All Australian
Apr 14, 2009
930
1,159
Perth WA
AFL Club
Fremantle
Carlton could arguably win another Coleman with a different full forward in 2022.

McKay & Curnow are exceptional talents are clearly is the biggest quality gap compared to Tabs/Lobb. We're hoping that Amiss & Treacy are our next big duo but they're at least 2-4 seasons away.

Carlton could have Docherty, Saad and or Weitering join all Australian ranks.

On our 2023 list we could have 3 AA defenders on our list (1 two time). 2 AA midfielders (both 2 time). Two AA forwards maybe 3 (fisher is the best kick in the AFL).

Docherty yes, Saad no. Weitering's a fair chance but the two Key Back spots are always hotly contested and May's likely got one on lock by virtue of Melbourne's success. Cripps is a lock and fair chance to captain it (and likely Brownlow too atm). Don't think McKay will get in after missing 6 weeks sadly but Curnow will likely feature if his form holds.


Fremantle may have beaten Carlton so far this year but their spine is horrible. Darcy plays one week misses the next. He’s probably to big atm to be consistent. Lobb, Taberner can’t get on the park together for long enough and park behind Carlton’s duo.

Structurally our spine is fantastic. Flushed with Key Back depth (Pearce was in AA contention but has dipped in form with an niggling ankle complaint, Cox and Logue still playing very well also). Darcy's missed the first two weeks with a pre-season injury and R8 with a concussion from the Carlton game late in the 3rd. Lobb's only missed one game with COVID, though Taberner's sadly got a history of hammy/feet issues.

Carlton have depth behind in the midfield in Dow, Carroll, Honey, Philp that are learning their trade playing forward roles. Who is that at freo.

According to inside Carlton with the loss of Jones and front loading contracts Carlton have the salary cap space to add further to holes. I’d be looking at Lachlan scholl on a wing. Potential to add another medium forward or tall defender or ruck.

2023 (or with luck 2022) could be a year Carlton make a GF.

Out of the 13 Freo Players that played in reserves this week, I'll note the midfield/forward depth
  • Liam Henry
  • Matthew Johnson
  • Karl Worner
  • Sam Sturt
  • Jye Amiss
  • Josh Treacy
  • Lloyd Meek

  • Mitch Crowden
  • Darcy Tucker
  • Connor Blakely

Top 7 are all for the future, with Henry and Sturt I'm hoping to see mark their spot in the team sooner than later and Johnson has finally played his first game in the reserves since being drafted. Some reason Longmuir has a serious crush on Banfield just I just don't see, for me he's bog average and not AFL quality IMO. Easy to forget O'Driscoll's been showing promise that we've missed since his injury, Erasmus we rate as a quality Mid/FWD who's been unlucky to be stuck as the sub (Banfield again....). Joel Western's another - Small Forward that's been on the cusp of selection but did a hammy recently after some great WAFL form.

Majority of Freo's core is 23 and under so dips in form are to be expected, however the next 5-8 years looks incredibly bright.


Respectfully, Carlton won't make the Grand Final this season. Good run home with the only "challenging" games on paper being:

  • Freo R15 (If we show up)
  • Saints R16
  • Geelong R18 (You'll start favorites)
  • Brisbane R21
  • Melbourne R22

With respect to Collingwood of course, still a hard team to tip atm. My money's 3rd - 6th with a Prelim exit for Cartlon. Would love to see Freo with a similar result this season, but realistically looking at a Week 2 exit after a home final. Looking forward to see how both teams are tracking 4-5 years from now.
 

Mr Cheese

All Australian
Mar 25, 2020
912
2,120
AFL Club
Fremantle
Yep, still reckon we take Carlton in the dry. They're weak defensively against transition which gave us the edge last time (missing players aside - think they evened out tbh).

Going to be up and about though for sure, think they'll be competing for the next half decade at least if they continue their improvement under Vossy.

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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Juddernaut08

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 8, 2007
10,262
13,989
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
McKay & Curnow are exceptional talents are clearly is the biggest quality gap compared to Tabs/Lobb. We're hoping that Amiss & Treacy are our next big duo but they're at least 2-4 seasons away.



Docherty yes, Saad no. Weitering's a fair chance but the two Key Back spots are always hotly contested and May's likely got one on lock by virtue of Melbourne's success. Cripps is a lock and fair chance to captain it (and likely Brownlow too atm). Don't think McKay will get in after missing 6 weeks sadly but Curnow will likely feature if his form holds.




Structurally our spine is fantastic. Flushed with Key Back depth (Pearce was in AA contention but has dipped in form with an niggling ankle complaint, Cox and Logue still playing very well also). Darcy's missed the first two weeks with a pre-season injury and R8 with a concussion from the Carlton game late in the 3rd. Lobb's only missed one game with COVID, though Taberner's sadly got a history of hammy/feet issues.



Out of the 13 Freo Players that played in reserves this week, I'll note the midfield/forward depth
  • Liam Henry
  • Matthew Johnson
  • Karl Worner
  • Sam Sturt
  • Jye Amiss
  • Josh Treacy
  • Lloyd Meek

  • Mitch Crowden
  • Darcy Tucker
  • Connor Blakely

Top 7 are all for the future, with Henry and Sturt I'm hoping to see mark their spot in the team sooner than later and Johnson has finally played his first game in the reserves since being drafted. Some reason Longmuir has a serious crush on Banfield just I just don't see, for me he's bog average and not AFL quality IMO. Easy to forget O'Driscoll's been showing promise that we've missed since his injury, Erasmus we rate as a quality Mid/FWD who's been unlucky to be stuck as the sub (Banfield again....). Joel Western's another - Small Forward that's been on the cusp of selection but did a hammy recently after some great WAFL form.

Majority of Freo's core is 23 and under so dips in form are to be expected, however the next 5-8 years looks incredibly bright.


Respectfully, Carlton won't make the Grand Final this season. Good run home with the only "challenging" games on paper being:

  • Freo R15 (If we show up)
  • Saints R16
  • Geelong R18 (You'll start favorites)
  • Brisbane R21
  • Melbourne R22

With respect to Collingwood of course, still a hard team to tip atm. My money's 3rd - 6th with a Prelim exit for Cartlon. Would love to see Freo with a similar result this season, but realistically looking at a Week 2 exit after a home final. Looking forward to see how both teams are tracking 4-5 years from now.
would love to pinch some of that kpd depth. we have none
 

Benga

Senior List
Nov 7, 2020
181
728
AFL Club
Carlton
Docherty yes, Saad no. Weitering's a fair chance but the two Key Back spots are always hotly contested and May's likely got one on lock by virtue of Melbourne's success. Cripps is a lock and fair chance to captain it (and likely Brownlow too atm). Don't think McKay will get in after missing 6 weeks sadly but Curnow will likely feature if his form holds.
I’d have saad comfortably above Docherty personally.
 

Foucault1989

Premiership Player
Oct 16, 2016
4,916
10,758
AFL Club
Carlton
Both very good teams who will have some monster clashes in the next few years.

Really excited for the rivalry that has weirdly developed since Jack Newnes sunk one after the siren.