Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[SBYM]

Everyone settle down.

All of your questions will be answered when we smack the Tiggers in R1.

 

[La Dispute]

Except Cripps played every game of 2020 and missed 2 games in 21.
Fyfe missed 3 games last year and 7 this year.
Yes Cripps has played injured but so has Fyfe on top of all the missed footy.

So both played most games the past few seasons, but Cripps played a few more and that is a major distinction.

Interesting.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

So both played most games the past few seasons, but Cripps played a few more and that is a major distinction.

Interesting.

So you rate Cripps ahead of Fyfe?

 

[Juddernaut08]

So you rate Cripps ahead of Fyfe?

which year?

 

[La Dispute]

So you rate Cripps ahead of Fyfe?

Very even in 2019. Fyfe won the the Brownlow, Cripps won the players MVP.

The point was they are currently in similar situations and have stalled in recent seasons through a combination of injury and form.

 

[Havoc]

Has to be Fremantle... after the draft they've just had!!

 

[Ash24]

Has to be Fremantle... after the draft they've just had!!

All because of a few 18 year old kids, great logic.

 

[Freoforever86]

Regardless of his 2020 season, if you count Luke Ryan as an AA calibre player then you can count Liam Jones as well.

jesus, this all I have to know about this thread. What trash haha.

 

[WillHayward]

Love what Freo did in the draft.

Freo are now a legit finals contender with momentum and hope.

Can see both Blues and Freo making finals in the next two years.

Question marks over both coaches though. Neither fills me with confidence...

 

[gungho]

Hasn’t Carlton been called the breakout team every pre season for the last 10 years by the Vic media?

 

[La Dispute]

Erasmus should not have slipped as far as he did. Top 5 pick any day of the week.

Amiss and Johnson were good picks.

The list is pretty well built, it’s going to be a matter of continuing to pump games into young players and adding more offensive layers and calibrating their attacking play a bit more.

Strong off-season from a list POV.

 

[gbatman]

The SOS era left Carlton's list with icing but not enough cake. I reckon their trades this year mark a great leap forward.

Hewett is arguably a more important pick up than Cerra (who is a terrific young player). George is a strong two-way mid. Like Cripps he has had a serious back issue but surgery seems to have been successful. He is not flashy but totally reliable and part of the 'cake' Carlton really needs. Voss will love him.

The Blues by a miracle got something for SPS. To continue with food themes, SPS is one of many on their list that offer all sizzle - no steak. I think Voss will test a list that many over rate and significant changes will be made at the end of 2022.

I reckon the Blues will not make the Finals in 2022 but will finish in the 9-12 range. Importantly they will be competitive against the better teams and pick up a win or two. It will be a crucial year in their development and mark progress in their rebuild.

Really good way of looking at it.

I think finals comes down to injuries and whether young players improve enough or not.

I think Carlton have had a good off season. Cerra and Hewett are exactly what Carlton need. Losing Jones sucks but gaining Young, a 22 year old who is a great mark and just out of the development stage could be a blessing. Motlop is what Carlton needs.

Carlton are building a list and still putting the pieces together. The last few years they have still been carrying pretty ordinary players and pretty raw players and ontop of that a poor run with injuries.

Waiting for youth to develop and come good is like watching a cake bake. They are getting there but it takes time.

Blues will be a fairly new look side baring injuries which have stuffed them of recent years.

Two top picks in 2018 Kemp and Philp have hardly played due to being injured since being recruited. Both top rated players should be fit and ready to start their careers. I really rate both of them and it's annoying both have missed so much footy.

Marchbank who has been often injured is working his way back. He's an important player, he has been our only genuine third tall defender on our list for a long time. Really rate him but it's a long injury history.

Youngsters Durdin and Honey emerged late last year as small forwards with genuine pace and hardness at the contest, something missing from Carlton for a long time. They will be joined by emerging players Owies and Motlop. Charlie Curnow was trending as a player who looked like becoming the best forward in the game, will be back after a good two years off. Played a little at the end of last season but after such a long layoff was underdone. Martin, another high profile recruit will be looking at spending less time injured. McKay won the coleman but was hampered with a shoulder injury as well. All of a sudden Carlton's dead forward line has more than a pulse, it starts to look good.

Zac Williams, a high profile recruit struggled with fitness and missed a lot of last year. McGovern is in the same boat, a guy with loads of talent who has been hampered with injuries, I am looking forward to him coming back as a defender. Has all the qualities of a good defender, elite speed, leap, footy smarts and skills, just needs fitness.

Cuningham will return after a knee injury, he was just starting to show a bit.

DeKoning and Stocker should continue on their upward trend. Eyes will be on Dow and O'Brien, two former high draft picks to see whether they take the next steps and Fisher who has been injured on and off a lot of the time. Carroll is another player to keep an eye on but may be still a little too raw at this stage but we shall see.

The team should be fairly new look providing the injuries slow down and players improve with age. That doesn't mean it will be much better but it should be.

In terms of Carltons best team for next year, I think it will be something like this.

B: McGovern Weitering Marchbank
HB: Saad Young Williams
C: Philp Cripps Kemp
HF: Martin Curnow Honey
F: Durdin McKay Silvagni
OB: TDK Cerra Walsh
IC: Docherty (back) Stocker (mid) Hewett (mid) Owies/Motlop (Forward)
SUB: E Curnow

Green: New player or practically new.
Blue: Not new but close to it.
Red: New Role.

Potential best 22:
Dow, O'Brien, Carroll, Kennedy Fogarty, McDonald, Plowman, Newman, Fisher, Parks, Pittonet, Williamson, Newnes, Setterfield.

Senior Players Gone:
Casboult, Jones, Murphy, Petrevski-Seton, Betts, Gibbons.



The team includes a lot of player who haven't played much footy or haven't played much in those roles so it has a lot to prove but one thing is that it's an unknow. A new group of coaches and a heap of new players, it needs to chance to prove itself.

 

[WillHayward]

Hasn’t Carlton been called the breakout team every pre season for the last 10 years by the Vic media?

Yep

But like a broken clock, sooner or later it will become true.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

It took 9 years to build the Sydney Harbour Bridge you could have built it nearly 3 times in the length of time the blues rebuild has been going.

 

[Ash24]

It took 9 years to build the Sydney Harbour Bridge you could have built it nearly 3 times in the length of time the blues rebuild has been going.

An in that time frame which you mentioned we've been in 3 grand finals and won a flag too. Not to mention 6 finals played between 2009 to 2013 - a streak that would've continued if it wasn't for Mick Malthouse and his antics, prematurely causing a second rebuild at the end of 2015.

 

[btdg]

Yep

But like a broken clock, sooner or later it will become true.

No???? This literally hasn't happened in as long as I can remember.

Last year, of 16 predictions across The Age and the Herald Sun, only one tipster backed Carlton to make the top 8 (and they put Carlton 8th). Everyone else basically said "Carlton will finish outside the 8, somewhere between 9th and 14th depending on how things pan out". As it happened, the media were absolutely spot on.

Basically no-one in the media has made the case that Carlton will break out in the past 5 years. I reckon the last real time would have been with Malthouse in 2013 - when we had a team that SHOULD have been much better than it was (and then Malthouse gutted it and things fell apart...)

 

[gungho]

No???? This literally hasn't happened in as long as I can remember.

Last year, of 16 predictions across The Age and the Herald Sun, only one tipster backed Carlton to make the top 8 (and they put Carlton 8th). Everyone else basically said "Carlton will finish outside the 8, somewhere between 9th and 14th depending on how things pan out". As it happened, the media were absolutely spot on.

Basically no-one in the media has made the case that Carlton will break out in the past 5 years. I reckon the last real time would have been with Malthouse in 2013 - when we had a team that SHOULD have been much better than it was (and then Malthouse gutted it and things fell apart...)

This article from fox footy in the pre season this year literally states Carlton as the "big improver". https://www.foxtel.com.au/whats-on/foxtel-insider/sports/afl-eddie-betts.html
You've been getting talked up by the media for years. Your fans also tend to believe the hype. I was living in Melbourne a few years ago and had a Carlton mate tell me at the start of every year how his team was going to win the premiership.
On top of all that, trading in guys like Williams, Saad, McGovern ect instead of going to the draft makes me think the coaches and board have been drinking from the same cool aid. As another poster has said - why not under promise and over deliver? At least Brian Cook has finally got the memo.

 

[gbatman]

Brian Cook is a good one, there is no doubt about that. I haven't heard anyone the last few years genuinely talking Carlton up as much of a threat. There has been some suggestion along the way of finals and last year some suggested Carlton might make finals. Well they didn't but they were a chance to make finals right up until the last few rounds. Maybe without a terrible injury list, and lets face it Carlton had a really bad run with injuries in 2021, they may have made it.

The thing is teams can turn it around quickly. Carlton commenced their rebuild at the 2015 draft and are coming close towards the end of the rebuilding period. Looking back at Richmond 2015 and 2016 they copped a lot of criticism, weren't rated externally at all. No one thought much of Hawthorn in 2006. Hell, no one thought much of Melbourne the last few years. But teams quietly chip away and struggle a bit and then all of a sudden things are complete and there is the grand reveal.

I don't know when that will happen for Carlton. From the start of the rebuild I have been expecting the team to be playing finals by around the 7 year mark which will be next year in 2022. 7 years is the time frame for a complete rebuild, this has been historically proven. Carlton should make finals in 2022 with the list they have unless there is an avalanche of injuries to key players again. The list is ok IMO but need to keep improving to really get there. Sure it has holes in it but it's improving and you don't have to be a brilliant side to sneak into the 8.

Play finals next year and Carlton's rebuild is on track IMO. As for premierships, that's probably two or three seasons away if that is going to happen with this group.

 

[WillHayward]

No???? This literally hasn't happened in as long as I can remember.

Last year, of 16 predictions across The Age and the Herald Sun, only one tipster backed Carlton to make the top 8 (and they put Carlton 8th). Everyone else basically said "Carlton will finish outside the 8, somewhere between 9th and 14th depending on how things pan out". As it happened, the media were absolutely spot on.

Basically no-one in the media has made the case that Carlton will break out in the past 5 years. I reckon the last real time would have been with Malthouse in 2013 - when we had a team that SHOULD have been much better than it was (and then Malthouse gutted it and things fell apart...)

Fair point

Only Cal Twomey had Carlton at 6th on AFL.com.au.

Everyone else had them much lower

Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2021 AFL season are in

Premiership, Brownlow, recruit of the year. We make the call

www.afl.com.au

 

[WillHayward]

Erasmus should not have slipped as far as he did. Top 5 pick any day of the week.

Amiss and Johnson were good picks.

The list is pretty well built, it’s going to be a matter of continuing to pump games into young players and adding more offensive layers and calibrating their attacking play a bit more.

Strong off-season from a list POV.

Motlop was exactly what the Blues needed .

Freo and Blues both have pretty balanced lists.

Now it's up to the coaching staff to get them to play as a team.

 

[La Dispute]

Motlop was exactly what the Blues needed .

Freo and Blues both have pretty balanced lists.

Now it's up to the coaching staff to get them to play as a team.

Looks like a decent prospect.

We have an immediate need to replace Betts, and although I’m bullish on both Durdin and Honey they aren’t as like-for-like. Durdin is more a gritty toiler in the Brent Daniels mould, Honey is a mid-sized impact player who can push through the midfield.

Motlop has that rare combination of freakish goal sense and strong defensive work rate.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Brian Cook is a good one, there is no doubt about that. I haven't heard anyone the last few years genuinely talking Carlton up as much of a threat. There has been some suggestion along the way of finals and last year some suggested Carlton might make finals. Well they didn't but they were a chance to make finals right up until the last few rounds. Maybe without a terrible injury list, and lets face it Carlton had a really bad run with injuries in 2021, they may have made it.

The thing is teams can turn it around quickly. Carlton commenced their rebuild at the 2015 draft and are coming close towards the end of the rebuilding period. Looking back at Richmond 2015 and 2016 they copped a lot of criticism, weren't rated externally at all. No one thought much of Hawthorn in 2006. Hell, no one thought much of Melbourne the last few years. But teams quietly chip away and struggle a bit and then all of a sudden things are complete and there is the grand reveal.

I don't know when that will happen for Carlton. From the start of the rebuild I have been expecting the team to be playing finals by around the 7 year mark which will be next year in 2022. 7 years is the time frame for a complete rebuild, this has been historically proven. Carlton should make finals in 2022 with the list they have unless there is an avalanche of injuries to key players again. The list is ok IMO but need to keep improving to really get there. Sure it has holes in it but it's improving and you don't have to be a brilliant side to sneak into the 8.

Play finals next year and Carlton's rebuild is on track IMO. As for premierships, that's probably two or three seasons away if that is going to happen with this group.

The difference between Carlton and tiges hawks dees is the same coach was there for the bad times and the good.
Blues would of sacked goody when dees finished bottom 4 therefore wouldn’t have won 2021.
Blues certainly wouldn’t have put up with Hardwicks consistent final failures.
Blues need to give voss 5 years irrespective of early results.
8th year at tiges for Hardwick for success.
Goodwin 8th years at dees 5 as head coach
Clarkson jagged one in his 4th year with a bit of luck but was getting the best out of his team in year 8.
Instead of keeping ratten and building you’ve had Malthouse Bolton barker Teague and now the players are learning their fifth different game plan and ethos from vossy in the last 8 years.
the players brains must be fried by now.

 

[ep2018]

Freo will play finals next year and Carlton *should* however with a new coach they might still miss. 2023 though, no excuses.

 

[Opine]

Carlton to be well ahead of Feo in 22 and for a few more years after that.

 

[gbatman]

The difference between Carlton and tiges hawks dees is the same coach was there for the bad times and the good.
Blues would of sacked goody when dees finished bottom 4 therefore wouldn’t have won 2021.
Blues certainly wouldn’t have put up with Hardwicks consistent final failures.
Blues need to give voss 5 years irrespective of early results.
8th year at tiges for Hardwick for success.
Goodwin 8th years at dees 5 as head coach
Clarkson jagged one in his 4th year with a bit of luck but was getting the best out of his team in year 8.
Instead of keeping ratten and building you’ve had Malthouse Bolton barker Teague and now the players are learning their fifth different game plan and ethos from vossy in the last 8 years.
the players brains must be fried by now.

This has been a problem, it comes back to how Carlton resource and support their coach.

The players will be fine.