Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?


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How low is the bar now for Martin if we're comparing him to a kid who's played 15 games off the rookie list?

Or better yet, how good must Ollie Dempsey be to be compared to the great Dustin Martin so early in his career?

It's a lose/lose from a Richmond POV, and this moron bought it up!!

But I wasn't comparing him to the great Dustin Martin. Nobody is going to compare with that.

I was comparing him to the Dustin Martin your posters were lining up hundreds deep to declare cooked a few shorts weeks ago. And your poster wanted an update on coaches votes in 2024. So I gave it to him. Turns out by that measure either Dusty isn't cooked, or Dempsey isn't the next coming, or both. :)
 
Richmond obviously a fair way off it this year.

If the Cats don’t steal one this year they may take even longer.

They could get lucky this year though.

Sydney should win it but if they don’t there’s a log jam of 8-9 others that are flaky yet good enough on their day if they have the luck to win it.
 
But I wasn't comparing him to the great Dustin Martin. Nobody is going to compare with that.

I was comparing him to the Dustin Martin your posters were lining up hundreds deep to declare cooked a few shorts weeks ago. And your poster wanted an update on coaches votes in 2024. So I gave it to him. Turns out by that measure either Dusty isn't cooked, or Dempsey isn't the next coming, or both. :)
I mean all Dusty did on the weekend was get a handball receive goal and another from a 50m penalty. Ineffective and pedestrian otherwise.

Dempsey's 3 goals and 2 goal assists with his near 30 disposals were far more memorable.
 

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Richmond obviously a fair way off it this year.

If the Cats don’t steal one this year they may take even longer.

They could get lucky this year though.

Sydney should win it but if they don’t there’s a log jam of 8-9 others that are flaky yet good enough on their day if they have the luck to win it.
I wouldn't say that at all.

The fact that we're top 4 has clouded people's judgement in that regard.

The majority of Geelong supporters still have the same perspective as we did in the pre-season, and see this year as a 'rebuild year' 'transition year' whatever you want to call it.

A premiership would be an absolute bonus this year, we're not expecting anything in that regard.

You don't win flags when your ruckman, centre half forward, fullback, and go to midfielders are all under the age of 23. It just doesn't happen.

As we continue to transition the list, the aim is to peak in 2-4 years as those players (amongst others) begin to hit their peaks, and we continue to draft well while bringing in some talent from other clubs.
 
I wouldn't say that at all.

The fact that we're top 4 has clouded people's judgement in that regard.

The majority of Geelong supporters still have the same perspective as we did in the pre-season, and see this year as a 'rebuild year' 'transition year' whatever you want to call it.

A premiership would be an absolute bonus this year, we're not expecting anything in that regard.

You don't win flags when your ruckman, centre half forward, fullback, and go to midfielders are all under the age of 23. It just doesn't happen.

As we continue to transition the list, the aim is to peak in 2-4 years as those players (amongst others) begin to hit their peaks, and we continue to draft well while bringing in some talent from other clubs.
Don’t get me wrong.
I don’t think your side should be in the conversation for a flag this year. But the fact is there are so many sides that are flaky yet capable on their day that there’s a chance you could get lucky.

Luck with injuries and form at the pointy end will playa part. And coach Scott has set you up well to have a good run at it.

Hawkins is plodding along. Cameron obviously been great in past years and while still and influence is on the decline. Same with Stewart. And a handful of others that were important cogs in your last flag that are nearing their end. Very much a transition in progress and the up and comers can’t replace these champs. But are doing their best in their own right to hold the team up. Hopefully for one tilt for those greats they play with.
 
Honest question, are geelongs hopes of a rebuild hampered by their HGA?

Despite geelong being top 4, they aren't really contenders much like Port and essendon and unlike those teams geelong has a lot worse age profile
Our winning record at home is not much better than our record away. We won home games when we were good and we're more losing home games fielding an inexperienced midfield.

Our last 5 Kardinia park games we're 3 and 2, and our last 5 MCG games we're 2 and 3. The last 3 wins at Kardinia park are currently

The 3 Kardinia park wins we're against the teams currently 15th, 17th, and 18th. The MCG wins were against the sides ranked 5th and 12th.

If anything I would argue that our taller forward line is actually making us weaker at home compared to bigger grounds if anything.
 
Yes, thanks for giving me the floor FS.

Dustin Martin, who from all accounts is totally cooked having the worst season ever and should retire, has more coaches votes than Oliver Dempsey who is the next in a long line of Geelong great white hopes, and Dusty has played less games. :)
Ollie Dempsey started playing footy 3 years ago and never even played a nab league game.

Whatever you think of him you have to admit his upward trajectory is startlingly rapid
 
I don't even know what a flex is.

But Dempsey often plays a similar role in a team that is a lot easier to play that role in, and has not missed multiple games or carried a restrictive injury through par of the season as Dusty has.

And Dusty is supposed to be cooked and Dempsey is supposed to the next Cats big thing in a long line of Cats next big things including both Henrys, DeKoning, Zuthrie, Stengle, Bruhn that all turn out to be the next medium sized thing after all. So maybe it is the flex you think I think it is, whatever a flex is. :)
edit: the post is based on bad data because accidentally hit current year rather than same age. But my point is that it's too early to judge, which is basically what Richmond fans are saying anyway

You know you prompted me to check Dusty and Dempsey's stats at the same age, expecting Dusty to blow him away given he was a pick 3 who was the same height and 17kg heavier.

I'm not the one who brought up the reference here, and I'm definitely not making any statements about Dempsey's upper limits or whatever, but I'm guessing you didn't check because the stats are actually pretty similar. Dusty a couple more total disposals, Dempsey a couple more tackles, clearances, and contested possessions.

This is kind of the pitfall of judging kids. You don't know if they're going to be Dusty or not. I'm sure not saying Dempsey will be Dusty, but no one knew Dusty would be Dusty either. It's kind of just white noise until they start stringing together consistency
 
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You know you prompted me to check Dusty and Dempsey's stats at the same age, expecting Dusty to blow him away given he was a pick 3 who was the same height and 17kg heavier.

I'm not the one who brought up the reference here, and I'm definitely not making any statements about Dempsey's upper limits or whatever, but I'm guessing you didn't check because the stats are actually pretty similar. Dusty a couple more total disposals, Dempsey a couple more tackles, clearances, and contested possessions.

This is kind of the pitfall of judging kids. You don't know if they're going to be Dusty or not. I'm sure not saying Dempsey will be Dusty, but no one knew Dusty would be Dusty either. It's kind of just white noise until they start stringing together consistency

I don't know what stats you checked CTTF, but Dusty was in a different stratosphere to Dempsey at the same age. The year Dusty turned 21 was 2012. So let's look at a few parameters shall we?

Coaches Votes

Dusty oddly only got 9 coaches votes that season(2012), but already had 69 coaches votes in his first 43 games prior to that. So by season end age 21 Dusty was averaging 1.24 coaches votes per game. v Dempsey currently averaging 0.37 coaches votes per game.

Player Ratings

In Dusty's 3rd year his average player rating was 13.44. He was the 47th highest rated player in the AFL that year. He did not discriminate as to who he rated against, a trait he has carried throughout his career. Dusty rated 14.6 on average v teams who made the finals, in 10 matches. v Dempsey current season rating 9.5 average. He is the 192nd highest rated player this season. Dempsey has played 4 games v teams in the 8, and he average rating is 6.0. He obviously boosted his rating by his huge 23.1 rating against the decimated 17th placed Richmond team this week.

Disposals

In 2012 Dusty averaged 22.4 disposals v Dempsey averaging 16.7 disposals.

Contested Possessions

Dusty averaged 8.4 v Dempsey 7.0. This was the lowest average of Dusty's first 3 seasons. It is by far Dempsey's highest.

Metres Gained

Dusty 411 v Dempsey 280.

Clearances

Dusty 3.3 v Dempsey 1.3

Contested Marks

Dusty 0.3 v Dempsey 0.9

Goals + Goals Assists

Dusty 1.6 v Dempsey 1.8(and Richmond averaged 14.1 goals per game in 2012, where Geelong are averaging 13.9 goals per game in 2024) Note Dusty had a season averaging 2.4 per game as a 20yo when Richmond average 13.6 goals per game.

Score Involvements

Dusty 6.7 v Dempsey 4.8

Score Launches

Dusty 1.6 v Dempsey 0.9

Offensive 1 v 1 contest win %

Dusty ranked AFL #11. Dempsey has not registered in the current season but is not in the top 80 odd.

Tackles

Dusty 3.0 v Dempsey 2.4

Pressure Acts

Dusty 13.7 v Dempsey 12.7


So the only thing that surprised me within al of that is that so far this season Dempsey has a lot higher contested marks and marginally higher goals + assists than Dusty did in 2012, and that Dusty got so few coaches votes(likely because he played his best games in losses v strong teams.) Basically, apart from those few areas where Dusty would have led Dempsey by plenty if you took their career averages to that point, Dusty was miles ahead.

It is not a very fair player to compare Dempsey to, he is not going to get near the heights of Dustin Martin's career. He looks a good 3rd year player with a strong trajectory, who as yet, has done absolutely nothing of note in the game. His best game by miles was this week just gone against a bottom 2 team in the safety of the ground he trains on.

But this statement you made quoted below, I believe is incorrect, I am scratching my head trying to work out where you have pulled it from:

CatToTheFuture: "but I'm guessing you didn't check because the stats are actually pretty similar. Dusty a couple more total disposals, Dempsey a couple more tackles, clearances, and contested possessions."

What stats were you actually looking at when you said Dusty had a couple more disposals, Dempsey had more tackles, clearances and contested possessions? In their respective 3rd years Dusty was running at about 30% more disposals, 20% more contested possessions and 250% more clearances.

Odd post by you CTTF, interested to see your response either pointing out where I have gone wrong or conceding you had it wrong.
 
Ollie Dempsey started playing footy 3 years ago and never even played a nab league game.

Whatever you think of him you have to admit his upward trajectory is startlingly rapid

Dempsey is going brilliantly given where he has come from.

But it is his 3rd year on the Cats list, and he remains a long way short of doing anything of serious note at this stage. We can see sudden improvement in players and just assume they will continue on the same trajectory. Admittedly, if Dempsey does that he will be a very good player. But history is littered with examples of players who seem to rise to a level then struggle to get past that level, or even maintain it. We had Cumberland in his 3rd year on our list out of some fairly rustic junior career, looked like he was going to take the world by storm and had scoring feats including against fellow finals teams to back that up. Opponents wake up, injuries happen, the player gets asked to take on more responsibility, systems may cease to function well around them, roles change etc. Dempsey has to get through all this and produce good footy v good teams in big games before we can say his improvement is franked.
 

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I don't know what stats you checked CTTF, but Dusty was in a different stratosphere to Dempsey at the same age. The year Dusty turned 21 was 2012. So let's look at a few parameters shall we?

Coaches Votes

Dusty oddly only got 9 coaches votes that season(2012), but already had 69 coaches votes in his first 43 games prior to that. So by season end age 21 Dusty was averaging 1.24 coaches votes per game. v Dempsey currently averaging 0.37 coaches votes per game.

Player Ratings

In Dusty's 3rd year his average player rating was 13.44. He was the 47th highest rated player in the AFL that year. He did not discriminate as to who he rated against, a trait he has carried throughout his career. Dusty rated 14.6 on average v teams who made the finals, in 10 matches. v Dempsey current season rating 9.5 average. He is the 192nd highest rated player this season. Dempsey has played 4 games v teams in the 8, and he average rating is 6.0. He obviously boosted his rating by his huge 23.1 rating against the decimated 17th placed Richmond team this week.

Disposals

In 2012 Dusty averaged 22.4 disposals v Dempsey averaging 16.7 disposals.

Contested Possessions

Dusty averaged 8.4 v Dempsey 7.0. This was the lowest average of Dusty's first 3 seasons. It is by far Dempsey's highest.

Metres Gained

Dusty 411 v Dempsey 280.

Clearances

Dusty 3.3 v Dempsey 1.3

Contested Marks

Dusty 0.3 v Dempsey 0.9

Goals + Goals Assists

Dusty 1.6 v Dempsey 1.8(and Richmond averaged 14.1 goals per game in 2012, where Geelong are averaging 13.9 goals per game in 2024) Note Dusty had a season averaging 2.4 per game as a 20yo when Richmond average 13.6 goals per game.

Score Involvements

Dusty 6.7 v Dempsey 4.8

Score Launches

Dusty 1.6 v Dempsey 0.9

Offensive 1 v 1 contest win %

Dusty ranked AFL #11. Dempsey has not registered in the current season but is not in the top 80 odd.

Tackles

Dusty 3.0 v Dempsey 2.4

Pressure Acts

Dusty 13.7 v Dempsey 12.7


So the only thing that surprised me within al of that is that so far this season Dempsey has a lot higher contested marks and marginally higher goals + assists than Dusty did in 2012, and that Dusty got so few coaches votes(likely because he played his best games in losses v strong teams.) Basically, apart from those few areas where Dusty would have led Dempsey by plenty if you took their career averages to that point, Dusty was miles ahead.

It is not a very fair player to compare Dempsey to, he is not going to get near the heights of Dustin Martin's career. He looks a good 3rd year player with a strong trajectory, who as yet, has done absolutely nothing of note in the game. His best game by miles was this week just gone against a bottom 2 team in the safety of the ground he trains on.

But this statement you made quoted below, I believe is incorrect, I am scratching my head trying to work out where you have pulled it from:

CatToTheFuture: "but I'm guessing you didn't check because the stats are actually pretty similar. Dusty a couple more total disposals, Dempsey a couple more tackles, clearances, and contested possessions."

What stats were you actually looking at when you said Dusty had a couple more disposals, Dempsey had more tackles, clearances and contested possessions? In their respective 3rd years Dusty was running at about 30% more disposals, 20% more contested possessions and 250% more clearances.

Odd post by you CTTF, interested to see your response either pointing out where I have gone wrong or conceding you had it wrong.
Footywire website stat comparison

Seems I may have put it in wrong in the middle of the night though because checking again now I'm getting different stats.

Disregard then
 
Dempsey is going brilliantly given where he has come from.

But it is his 3rd year on the Cats list, and he remains a long way short of doing anything of serious note at this stage. We can see sudden improvement in players and just assume they will continue on the same trajectory. Admittedly, if Dempsey does that he will be a very good player. But history is littered with examples of players who seem to rise to a level then struggle to get past that level, or even maintain it. We had Cumberland in his 3rd year on our list out of some fairly rustic junior career, looked like he was going to take the world by storm and had scoring feats including against fellow finals teams to back that up. Opponents wake up, injuries happen, the player gets asked to take on more responsibility, systems may cease to function well around them, roles change etc. Dempsey has to get through all this and produce good footy v good teams in big games before we can say his improvement is franked.
Yeah, literally the point of my other post, despite being based on incorrect stats, is exactly this.

I'm just saying Dempsey is going very well for a kid who started playing school footy with his mates for fun in his draft year
 
Yeah, literally the point of my other post, despite being based on incorrect stats, is exactly this.

I'm just saying Dempsey is going very well for a kid who started playing school footy with his mates for fun in his draft year

I have no arguments that Dempsey is going very well. My posting about him is more to put what he is doing into some sort of perspective. He is a long way off being any sort of marquee level player at this point, and is not necessarily even tracking to get anywhere near that level. Some of your posters have posted about Dempsey like he is a nailed on future A grader.
 
I have no arguments that Dempsey is going very well. My posting about him is more to put what he is doing into some sort of perspective. He is a long way off being any sort of marquee level player at this point, and is not necessarily even tracking to get anywhere near that level. Some of your posters have posted about Dempsey like he is a nailed on future A grader.
Well he can't be doing much more at this stage
 
sam winchester yawn GIF




You should read what they say about these players on the Tiggies board!
These players on the Tiggies board are all in question, so nice grab. Graham is in very few best 22, Grimes in none, Mansell is just hanging in, MRJ was delistable at the start of the season but has come on pretty well before injury. Broad has been a great player at Richmond, completely under rated who Cameron kicked 1.0 on last time we played.
 
Dempsey is going brilliantly given where he has come from.

But it is his 3rd year on the Cats list, and he remains a long way short of doing anything of serious note at this stage. We can see sudden improvement in players and just assume they will continue on the same trajectory. Admittedly, if Dempsey does that he will be a very good player. But history is littered with examples of players who seem to rise to a level then struggle to get past that level, or even maintain it. We had Cumberland in his 3rd year on our list out of some fairly rustic junior career, looked like he was going to take the world by storm and had scoring feats including against fellow finals teams to back that up. Opponents wake up, injuries happen, the player gets asked to take on more responsibility, systems may cease to function well around them, roles change etc. Dempsey has to get through all this and produce good footy v good teams in big games before we can say his improvement is franked.

Oh Noah Cumberland what has happened to you? Oh it turns out if your sole aim is to score goals instead of playing in a team structure you can pad your stats until the coach decides you need to do play a team first role. Cumberland and Dempsey both off the charts for footy IQ though. Just opposite ends.

Oh and I like how playing years of junior footy then being part of the Brisbane Lions academy and playing in a NEAFL premiership prior to being drafted is a "fairly rustic junior career". Fair you just mean he was from Queensland? Brisbane passing on him when bid on in the 40s was the first tell he wasn't much chop.
 
I don't see the point in running down the youth of either side.

Geelong's young brigade rallied really well on Saturday and got them over the line pretty much. But Richmond kicked 2.7 from set shots before half time, we should have been 6-7 goals up. So something was working with our younger players as well.

You just don't know where young players are going to come from until they hit the 50 odd game mark. Ralphsmith was out the door by 90% of Richmond posters preseason, now he is looking very comfortable. Holmes always looked good, but he has suddenly become close to Geelong's best player this season. There are kids in both teams who will come up as the season progresses, but right now neither look capable of reaching great heights this season.
 
I have no arguments that Dempsey is going very well. My posting about him is more to put what he is doing into some sort of perspective. He is a long way off being any sort of marquee level player at this point, and is not necessarily even tracking to get anywhere near that level. Some of your posters have posted about Dempsey like he is a nailed on future A grader.
The bloke was taken in the rookie draft.

Even if “this” (very handy contributions punctuated by the odd great game) was his absolute ceiling, it’s a fantastic outcome.
 
Dempsey is going brilliantly given where he has come from.

But it is his 3rd year on the Cats list, and he remains a long way short of doing anything of serious note at this stage. We can see sudden improvement in players and just assume they will continue on the same trajectory. Admittedly, if Dempsey does that he will be a very good player. But history is littered with examples of players who seem to rise to a level then struggle to get past that level, or even maintain it. We had Cumberland in his 3rd year on our list out of some fairly rustic junior career, looked like he was going to take the world by storm and had scoring feats including against fellow finals teams to back that up. Opponents wake up, injuries happen, the player gets asked to take on more responsibility, systems may cease to function well around them, roles change etc. Dempsey has to get through all this and produce good footy v good teams in big games before we can say his improvement is franked.
If you had a player like Dempsey, even without context (that 4 years ago he wasn't even playing footy of ANY kind...now about 15 AFL games into his career), you would be creaming yourself. Stop being so dogmatically stuck to only praising youngsters on one side of this equation - it makes nothing you say credible about Richmond's youngsters.
 
Our winning record at home is not much better than our record away. We won home games when we were good and we're more losing home games fielding an inexperienced midfield.

Our last 5 Kardinia park games we're 3 and 2, and our last 5 MCG games we're 2 and 3. The last 3 wins at Kardinia park are currently

The 3 Kardinia park wins we're against the teams currently 15th, 17th, and 18th. The MCG wins were against the sides ranked 5th and 12th.

If anything I would argue that our taller forward line is actually making us weaker at home compared to bigger grounds if anything.

Nah. Long thin grounds like Kardinia Park and Adelaide Oval favour talls - as the narrowness compacts the defensive press and makes it harder to go around or through it, so you end up with more down the line contests and the length means you need to take it further when going down the line.

Talls are more valuable on a ground like Kardinia Park, but you probably aren't as good this year there as you've switched to more of a slingshot style out of the back half - which is harder to do on a narrow ground.
 
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