The number of players over 30 in the league has steadily risen in the last 20 or so years. According to AFL tables in 1995 there were 57 players over 30, and 457 between 20-29. Last year there were 110 over 30, and 491 between 20-29, so the proportion over 30 has almost doubled. The average age has climbed to almost an all-time high of 25.6 - in 1995 it was 24.3. The all-time high was in the late 1920s where it hit 25.9 for a couple of years before dropping sharply
Interestingly, in historic terms the average age of the league has RISEN during stable periods of growth, then fallen during periods of expansion:
I think it reasonable to conclude two things from this:
1. The average age across the league heavily reflects the size of the player pool relative to the number of teams. Expanding the league = more teams = younger players have to fill the gap. Post-WWII and depression also saw this ratio skewed. In contrast, if there is a long period without expansion the average age tends to increase as the league/player pool grows
2. All other things being equal, this has been more drastic in the 2010s and 2020s, with more players carrying on into their 30s than previous eras, with the only exception being the 1920s.
Another quite worrying thing is that the last time we hit this level of average age it seemed to create the conditions necessary for a horrendous economic collapse, followed by a catastrophic global war. Given some of what is happening in other parts of the world right now that is quite concerning!
Interestingly, in historic terms the average age of the league has RISEN during stable periods of growth, then fallen during periods of expansion:
- In 1897, the average age was 23.1 --> this rose to a mini-peak of 24.4 in 1907.
- Then expansion hit (Richmond and University) and the average dropped to 23.9 in 1911
- It rose again to a peak in 1921-22 and stayed above 25.6 until 1924
- Expansion in 1925 (Hawthorn, North, Bulldogs) saw it fall quickly to 24.2 in 1928
- Average age actually stayed quite constant right through the 1930s and 1940s but fell sharply post-WWII in the early 1950s. There was a likely a player drought due to war losses (both deaths and careers) and depression era lack of babies
- The low point was actually 22.6 in the mid 1960s. Average age stayed low right through that period. Interesting that this was also a very odd period in terms of team success (with St Kilda, Footscray winning their only premierships for a long time, Collingwood and Melbourne dominating then beginning long droughts, etc)
- From about 1968 (about 22 years post-WWII and once the baby boom starts to hit) average age rises consistently to a new peak from 1983-86
- Expansion hits (West Coast and Brisbane) - average age immediately drops, then rises. The 90s is actually quite stable with expansion (FReo, Port) balanced by contraction (Fitzroy).
- Slow rise in the 2000s to a new peak (24.4) in 2007-8.
- Dropped after expansion in 2010-11 to 24.0
- Has risen since, much more than it did in the 90s and 2000s though
I think it reasonable to conclude two things from this:
1. The average age across the league heavily reflects the size of the player pool relative to the number of teams. Expanding the league = more teams = younger players have to fill the gap. Post-WWII and depression also saw this ratio skewed. In contrast, if there is a long period without expansion the average age tends to increase as the league/player pool grows
2. All other things being equal, this has been more drastic in the 2010s and 2020s, with more players carrying on into their 30s than previous eras, with the only exception being the 1920s.
Another quite worrying thing is that the last time we hit this level of average age it seemed to create the conditions necessary for a horrendous economic collapse, followed by a catastrophic global war. Given some of what is happening in other parts of the world right now that is quite concerning!
