The Rise of the Wizard....

[Guardian Hawk]

Hello all,

In a similar vein to a thread I started nearly 20 years ago ("Buddy's Developing Place on the All Time Goalkicking Ladder"), I thought it would be fun to track the rise of our newest young dynamo - in comparison to the elite small forwards of yesteryear. To see how he stacks up, appreciate how he is tracking and enjoy witnessing his rise as it unfolds.

(Added benefit is that amidst lots of outside noise (perhaps primarily on here) about being 'overrated', 'not deserving the nickname' and being 'too high a draft pick' (which should probably just be ignored), this also provides some context and comparison to other greats, with recognition that the small forward role is hard to impact consistently and hard to impact early.)

To achieve all these things, I have looked at the top 100 goalkickers of all time, which is incidentally the 400+ goal mark and picked out all the "small forwards" (defined loosely as 'non-talls') from the AFL era to see how their early career compares so far...

After 30 games of the top 100, we have:

1. S. Milne 60 goals (debuted at 21)
2. P. Hudson 60
3. L. Breust 53 (debuted at 20)
4. J. Farmer 47
5. N. Watson 43
6. S. Johnson 41
7. C. Cameron 39
8. B. Harvey 33
9. R. Robertson 30
10. E. Betts 29
11. G. Ablett Jnr 29
12. J. Akermanis 29
13. B. Johnson 17

and compared to a selection of current highly rated small forwards (after 30 games) we have:

1. N. Watson 43
2. T. Papley 39
3. J. Rachele 34
4. K. Pickett 31
5. J. Elliott 28
6. S. Bolton 23
7. P. Curtis 21
8. T. Greene 10 (playing midfield)

Feel free to suggest anyone you would like added to the comparison. Also feel free to update this thread yourself whenever you'd like, either with the above update or any other stats, etc you're interested in including!

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

imagine if he kicked straight

 

[Elhawko]

Hello all,

In a similar vein to a thread I started nearly 20 years ago ("Buddy's Developing Place on the All Time Goalkicking Ladder"), I thought it would be fun to track the rise of our newest young dynamo - in comparison to the elite small forwards of yesteryear. To see how he stacks up, appreciate how he is tracking and enjoy witnessing his rise as it unfolds.

(Added benefit is that amidst lots of outside noise (perhaps primarily on here) about being 'overrated', 'not deserving the nickname' and being 'too high a draft pick' (which should probably just be ignored), this also provides some context and comparison to other greats, with recognition that the small forward role is hard to impact consistently and hard to impact early.)

To achieve all these things, I have looked at the top 100 goalkickers of all time, which is incidentally the 400+ goal mark and picked out all the "small forwards" (defined loosely as 'non-talls') from the AFL era to see how their early career compares so far...

After 30 games of the top 100, we have:

1. S. Milne 60 goals (debuted at 21)
2. P. Hudson 60
3. L. Breust 53 (debuted at 20)
4. J. Farmer 47
5. N. Watson 43
6. S. Johnson 41
7. C. Cameron 39
8. B. Harvey 33
9. R. Robertson 30
10. E. Betts 29
11. G. Ablett Jnr 29
12. J. Akermanis 29
13. B. Johnson 17

and compared to a selection of current highly rated small forwards (after 30 games) we have:

1. N. Watson 43
2. T. Papley 39
3. J. Rachele 34
4. K. Pickett 31
5. J. Elliott 28
6. S. Bolton 23
7. P. Curtis 21
8. T. Greene 10 (playing midfield)

Feel free to suggest anyone you would like added to the comparison. Also feel free to update this thread yourself whenever you'd like, either with the above update or any other stats, etc you're interested in including!

I reckon Cody Wightman had 50 goals after his first thirty games.

 

[Elhawko]

I reckon Cody Wightman had 50 goals after his first thirty games.

And Ginni might have about that too, 49 or thereabouts?

 

[lyger]

Hello all,

In a similar vein to a thread I started nearly 20 years ago ("Buddy's Developing Place on the All Time Goalkicking Ladder"), I thought it would be fun to track the rise of our newest young dynamo - in comparison to the elite small forwards of yesteryear. To see how he stacks up, appreciate how he is tracking and enjoy witnessing his rise as it unfolds.

(Added benefit is that amidst lots of outside noise (perhaps primarily on here) about being 'overrated', 'not deserving the nickname' and being 'too high a draft pick' (which should probably just be ignored), this also provides some context and comparison to other greats, with recognition that the small forward role is hard to impact consistently and hard to impact early.)

To achieve all these things, I have looked at the top 100 goalkickers of all time, which is incidentally the 400+ goal mark and picked out all the "small forwards" (defined loosely as 'non-talls') from the AFL era to see how their early career compares so far...

After 30 games of the top 100, we have:

1. S. Milne 60 goals (debuted at 21)
2. P. Hudson 60
3. L. Breust 53 (debuted at 20)
4. J. Farmer 47
5. N. Watson 43
6. S. Johnson 41
7. C. Cameron 39
8. B. Harvey 33
9. R. Robertson 30
10. E. Betts 29
11. G. Ablett Jnr 29
12. J. Akermanis 29
13. B. Johnson 17

and compared to a selection of current highly rated small forwards (after 30 games) we have:

1. N. Watson 43
2. T. Papley 39
3. J. Rachele 34
4. K. Pickett 31
5. J. Elliott 28
6. S. Bolton 23
7. P. Curtis 21
8. T. Greene 10 (playing midfield)

Feel free to suggest anyone you would like added to the comparison. Also feel free to update this thread yourself whenever you'd like, either with the above update or any other stats, etc you're interested in including!

Three hawks in the top five!

 

[offtherails9]

He's a star. Needs to continue to attack the ball with the ferociousity that he does and the goals will continue to come. I'm glad he and Ginni have adapted to avoid the overt ducks which are no good, but if you're winning the ground ball and forcing your opponent to make sure they're tackling correctly, you're doing the right thing.

Love when he's applying forward pressure and moving up the ground.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

He has a big impact per possession, similar to Rioli in that regard. He's just so good at kicking to the advantage of teammates.

I know kicking goals isn't the only thing he's in the side for, as highlights above, but it has to be said that his return of 18 goals in 13 games so far this season is underwhelming.

It may have been an unfair target, but I had hoped he'd be hitting 40 odd goals in the H&A season - and he still may of course. But right now he's on track for 30 odd, which is still good, especially for a second year player, and doubly-especially if he spends more time up the ground. 40 goals is probably a more realistic target for next season.

 

[Mopar Jason]

Love The Wizard.

 

[Sixpence]

What a goal!

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

You know he’s made it when we call for more CBA’s/Mid time like we did with Cyril

 

[Philhawk]

Can I please remind you that he’s only in his second year, so we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves.

That said, the goal next year should be 100 goals.

 

[SSSSSS]

You know he’s made it when we call for more CBA’s/Mid time like we did with Cyril

Might answer some of the 'what if' questions re: Cyril in the middle given it looks like the Wiz's strings aren't made of paper.

 

[tommyk72]

Hello all,

In a similar vein to a thread I started nearly 20 years ago ("Buddy's Developing Place on the All Time Goalkicking Ladder"), I thought it would be fun to track the rise of our newest young dynamo - in comparison to the elite small forwards of yesteryear. To see how he stacks up, appreciate how he is tracking and enjoy witnessing his rise as it unfolds.

(Added benefit is that amidst lots of outside noise (perhaps primarily on here) about being 'overrated', 'not deserving the nickname' and being 'too high a draft pick' (which should probably just be ignored), this also provides some context and comparison to other greats, with recognition that the small forward role is hard to impact consistently and hard to impact early.)

To achieve all these things, I have looked at the top 100 goalkickers of all time, which is incidentally the 400+ goal mark and picked out all the "small forwards" (defined loosely as 'non-talls') from the AFL era to see how their early career compares so far...

After 30 games of the top 100, we have:

1. S. Milne 60 goals (debuted at 21)
2. P. Hudson 60
3. L. Breust 53 (debuted at 20)
4. J. Farmer 47
5. N. Watson 43
6. S. Johnson 41
7. C. Cameron 39
8. B. Harvey 33
9. R. Robertson 30
10. E. Betts 29
11. G. Ablett Jnr 29
12. J. Akermanis 29
13. B. Johnson 17

and compared to a selection of current highly rated small forwards (after 30 games) we have:

1. N. Watson 43
2. T. Papley 39
3. J. Rachele 34
4. K. Pickett 31
5. J. Elliott 28
6. S. Bolton 23
7. P. Curtis 21
8. T. Greene 10 (playing midfield)

Feel free to suggest anyone you would like added to the comparison. Also feel free to update this thread yourself whenever you'd like, either with the above update or any other stats, etc you're interested in including!

Love it. Perhaps add shots per game?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I thought Sam missed a trick today.

With Wiz being manned by Daniel, he should have played him out of the square. He’d have brained him.

 

[Dipper]

He's that good that you just want to see him get the ball. The curse of the small forward is that sometimes they don't see much of it, but there's never a point I've ever thought he's getting it but stuffing up. The only problem is when he doesn't see much of it.

More centre bounce attendances please.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Lookout when he builds a tank

 

[Guardian Hawk]

I thought Sam missed a trick today.

With Wiz being manned by Daniel, he should have played him out of the square. He’d have brained him.

Agree with the thinking but hard to pull the trigger when Gunston is having a record breaking day and Chol kicks 5. Was no need to adjust set ups when our goal scoring efficiency was sky high.

Something somewhat overlooked was that we tried that tactic against Gold Coast. Watson was our best player by far in the first half (and Dear was very quiet, Gunston rested), so we put Watson one-out and instructed the players to kick the chaos ball to space and let the Wiz go to work. Unfortunately the players seemed to take chaos and "kick to space' a little too literally and our f50 entries to Watson in that second half were pretty deplorable (often went out of bounds before he got there). HIs second half wasn't as impactful.

Still think it's a tactic we can employ when we need to and the match situation is right but plan A should still be for him to play as the traditional small forward that hits front and centre of the big men (and stoppages) at pace.

 

[HedgeFund]

I reckon Cody Wightman had 50 goals after his first thirty games.

Yep - spot on.

 

[Flamin Joe]

Lookout when he builds a tank

What scale?

 

[TheFourPillars]

What scale?

View attachment 2355810

NIIIIICCCCEEEE

 

[kazzooka]

Agree with the thinking but hard to pull the trigger when Gunston is having a record breaking day and Chol kicks 5. Was no need to adjust set ups when our goal scoring efficiency was sky high.

Something somewhat overlooked was that we tried that tactic against Gold Coast. Watson was our best player by far in the first half (and Dear was very quiet, Gunston rested), so we put Watson one-out and instructed the players to kick the chaos ball to space and let the Wiz go to work. Unfortunately the players seemed to take chaos and "kick to space' a little too literally and our f50 entries to Watson in that second half were pretty deplorable (often went out of bounds before he got there). HIs second half wasn't as impactful.

Still think it's a tactic we can employ when we need to and the match situation is right but plan A should still be for him to play as the traditional small forward that hits front and centre of the big men (and stoppages) at pace.

Watson or Moore out of the goal square is a lever we can pull when match ups are good for it. Moore against last year was quiet against North then we put him in the goalsquare and he kicked 4.3. Watson can do the same.

 

[lyger]

I thought Sam missed a trick today.

With Wiz being manned by Daniel, he should have played him out of the square. He’d have brained him.

We were scoring quite freely but agree that Wiz could have caused havoc if he was isolated on Daniel a lot more.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

imagine if he kicked straight

There should be no further concern about Watson's goalkicking.

Yes, he was nervous early, trying to do too much and was wayward in his first 10 games. Since his first 10 games, he's actually kicked 41 goals, 18 behinds. That's actually incredible accuracy, working out to be 69% in front of goal.

To put that into perspective, the great Jason Dunstall had a career accuracy of 66% and sharp shooter Luke Breust has a career accuracy of 68%.

He's as reliable now as anyone else we have.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

There should be no further concern about Watson's goalkicking.

Yes, he was nervous early, trying to do too much and was wayward in his first 10 games. Since his first 10 games, he's actually kicked 41 goals, 18 behinds. That's actually incredible accuracy, working out to be 69% in front of goal.

To put that into perspective, the great Jason Dunstall had a career accuracy of 66% and sharp shooter Luke Breust has a career accuracy of 68%.

He's as reliable now as anyone else we have.

From set shots he is 50/50 still