Analysis The Road To 2018...where do we stand??

[Marlo]

You think Richardson is at the Lyon level?

Nah.

Neither is Hardwick.

Need a balanced list, a few studs, and a Blake Caraccella or two like appointments.

Oh.. and a s**t load of luck.

 

[mr bagcroft]

lets just put this claim under the microscope ..
players we brought into the team from 2000 to 2003 the bolded players played in the 2004 premlim (13 players) from that list the ones in Red played in our grand final in 09 (9 players):
Craig Callaghan
Fraser Gehrig
Aaron Hamill
Steven Lawrence
Mathew Capuano
Nick Riewoldt
Justin Koschitzki
Mark Gale
Robert Powell
Daniel Wulf
Brett Voss
Heath Black
Trent Knoble
Luke Ball
Xav Clarke
Nick Dal Santo
Matt Maguire
Leigh Montagna
Josh Houlihan
Barry Brooks
Luke Penny
Brendan Goddard
Matt Ferguson
Leigh Fisher
Steven Powell
Jason Gram
Brent Guerra
Raph Clarke
Sam Fisher

so basically the ground work put into the list from 2000 to 2003 laid the foundation of 9 players to be in our 09 grand final team .. in 9 years from spoon to g/f at the moment we are 4 years from our last spoon. so as you point out our best talent pool took 9 years to get to the grand final and you are getting impatient in year four ??? some of our best players in 09 couldnt get a game in 04 and didnt look like anything but over time developed, same could be said of this current group .. Paddy could be our Kosi, Dunstan our Luke Ball, Gresh our Dal Santo , Billings our Montagna, Acres our Godard , Godard our Sam Fisher, Sinclair our Gram and Webster our Raph (poor bastard).... a lot can change in a short period of time out of nowhere a player can become a star just like out of nowhere a star can become a dud...
who knows what the future brings we are just hanging on for the ride

Yeah fair enough point. I just dont see it in the current crop. But I could easily be wrong. Would be happy to.
To be honest, it probably dosent help that my care factor is at an all time low.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Ok AR where do you think we should finish with a good injury run and things going our way

In the 8.

Last year we were hit hard by injuries to those who were most important to us (in particular Steven, Riewoldt and Armo, then to a lesser extent Mav and Paddy, etc), yet we still improved as a team from the year before (for all the reasons I've posted previously), but if we do have a good injury run this year, and other things generally go our way, I can see big improvement in our midfield in particular.

If we're say able to finally have all of Stuv, Seb and Armo fit and firing at the one time (which has never really been the case- Armo and Steven were both in top form in 2015, then Steven and to a lesser degree Seb in 2016, then Seb last year) and then if two or three or more of Dunstan, Acres, Steele, Sincs, Gresh, or Billings really step it up (in the midfield) with them, we could have a significantly better and deeper midfield than we've had in recent years.

If so, that will hold us in really good stead, given that most games are won in the midfield, and we've been able to win more games than we've lost over the last two years- with inferior midfields to what we could easily have this year.

Then up forward we could be good, with Bruce, Paddy and Skunk giving us 3 good and different marking targets, then the very talented Billings, Acres, Gresham, Clark and others around them and feeding them, and hopefully having the luxury of having guys like Stuv resting there more, and being dangerous.

I think that has the potential to be one of the better and most dangerous forward lines in the comp, although it's not necessarily as defensively capable as we'd like. We probably either need Mav to rediscover his mojo pretty quickly, or a Lonie or Long to really step up, unless say Clark is able to play that role well all year.

Then down back I think we're pretty capable and well balanced and will hopefully have a lot more pressure coming up from underneath, from the likes of White, Rice, Goddard, Austin and D-Mac, with another preseason under their belts, and perhaps Paton, in his first year.

I feel like we're definitely ready and that our options outside the 22 will be more ready to play and contribute than they were last year.

We've been knocking on the door of the 8 for 2 years now and while we've lost two who were best 22, in Nick and Joey, they only played 33 games between them last year and received just 5 of the 235 coaches votes those who played for us received in our last 10 wins of the year, so it's not like they were dominating, or getting us over the line. While on the flip side we potentially get back Armo and Paddy, who I feel can play at a comparable level to what they were, and add Clark and Coffield (amongst others who might surprise) and then we have a large group who are very talented (mostly drafted/bid on in the first round) coming into their prime years.

If we do have a good injury run and things generally go our way I don't think there will be any excuse in not making the 8. Our hard looking draw might mean we only scrape in if we do, but no excuses otherwise, IMO.

 

[Mowman]

In the 8.

Last year we were hit hard by injuries to those who were most important to us (in particular Steven, Riewoldt and Armo, then to a lesser extent Mav and Paddy, etc), yet we still improved as a team from the year before (for all the reasons I've posted previously), but if we do have a good injury run this year, and other things generally go our way, I can see big improvement in our midfield in particular.

If we're say able to finally have all of Stuv, Seb and Armo fit and firing at the one time (which has never really been the case- Armo and Steven were both in top form in 2015, then Steven and to a lesser degree Seb in 2016, then Seb last year) and then if two or three or more of Dunstan, Acres, Steele, Sincs, Gresh, or Billings really step it up (in the midfield) with them, we could have a significantly better and deeper midfield than we've had in recent years.

If so, that will hold us in really good stead, given that most games are won in the midfield, and we've been able to win more games than we've lost over the last two years- with inferior midfields to what we could easily have this year.

Then up forward we could be good, with Bruce, Paddy and Skunk giving us 3 good and different marking targets, then the very talented Billings, Acres, Gresham, Clark and others around them and feeding them, and hopefully having the luxury of having guys like Stuv resting there more, and being dangerous.

I think that has the potential to be one of the better and most dangerous forward lines in the comp, although it's not necessarily as defensively capable as we'd like. We probably either need Mav to rediscover his mojo pretty quickly, or a Lonie or Long to really step up, unless say Clark is able to play that role well all year.

Then down back I think we're pretty capable and well balanced and will hopefully have a lot more pressure coming up from underneath, from the likes of White, Rice, Goddard, Austin and D-Mac, with another preseason under their belts, and perhaps Paton, in his first year.

I feel like we're definitely ready and that our options outside the 22 will be more ready to play and contribute than they were last year.

We've been knocking on the door of the 8 for 2 years now and while we've lost two who were best 22, in Nick and Joey, they only played 33 games between them last year and received just 5 of the 235 coaches votes those who played for us received in our last 10 wins of the year, so it's not like they were dominating, or getting us over the line. While on the flip side we potentially get back Armo and Paddy, who I feel can play at a comparable level to what they were, and add Clark and Coffield (amongst others who might surprise) and then we have a large group who are very talented (mostly drafted/bid on in the first round) coming into their prime years.

If we do have a good injury run and things generally go our way I don't think there will be any excuse in not making the 8. Our hard looking draw might mean we only scrape in if we do, but no excuses otherwise, IMO.

Great post AR, hope you are on the money

 

[plugger66]

In the 8.

Last year we were hit hard by injuries to those who were most important to us (in particular Steven, Riewoldt and Armo, then to a lesser extent Mav and Paddy, etc), yet we still improved as a team from the year before (for all the reasons I've posted previously), but if we do have a good injury run this year, and other things generally go our way, I can see big improvement in our midfield in particular.

If we're say able to finally have all of Stuv, Seb and Armo fit and firing at the one time (which has never really been the case- Armo and Steven were both in top form in 2015, then Steven and to a lesser degree Seb in 2016, then Seb last year) and then if two or three or more of Dunstan, Acres, Steele, Sincs, Gresh, or Billings really step it up (in the midfield) with them, we could have a significantly better and deeper midfield than we've had in recent years.

If so, that will hold us in really good stead, given that most games are won in the midfield, and we've been able to win more games than we've lost over the last two years- with inferior midfields to what we could easily have this year.

Then up forward we could be good, with Bruce, Paddy and Skunk giving us 3 good and different marking targets, then the very talented Billings, Acres, Gresham, Clark and others around them and feeding them, and hopefully having the luxury of having guys like Stuv resting there more, and being dangerous.

I think that has the potential to be one of the better and most dangerous forward lines in the comp, although it's not necessarily as defensively capable as we'd like. We probably either need Mav to rediscover his mojo pretty quickly, or a Lonie or Long to really step up, unless say Clark is able to play that role well all year.

Then down back I think we're pretty capable and well balanced and will hopefully have a lot more pressure coming up from underneath, from the likes of White, Rice, Goddard, Austin and D-Mac, with another preseason under their belts, and perhaps Paton, in his first year.

I feel like we're definitely ready and that our options outside the 22 will be more ready to play and contribute than they were last year.

We've been knocking on the door of the 8 for 2 years now and while we've lost two who were best 22, in Nick and Joey, they only played 33 games between them last year and received just 5 of the 235 coaches votes those who played for us received in our last 10 wins of the year, so it's not like they were dominating, or getting us over the line. While on the flip side we potentially get back Armo and Paddy, who I feel can play at a comparable level to what they were, and add Clark and Coffield (amongst others who might surprise) and then we have a large group who are very talented (mostly drafted/bid on in the first round) coming into their prime years.

If we do have a good injury run and things generally go our way I don't think there will be any excuse in not making the 8. Our hard looking draw might mean we only scrape in if we do, but no excuses otherwise, IMO.

Where did you have us last year? The one thing you are is positive.

 

[George]

In the 8.

Last year we were hit hard by injuries to those who were most important to us (in particular Steven, Riewoldt and Armo, then to a lesser extent Mav and Paddy, etc), yet we still improved as a team from the year before (for all the reasons I've posted previously), but if we do have a good injury run this year, and other things generally go our way, I can see big improvement in our midfield in particular.

If we're say able to finally have all of Stuv, Seb and Armo fit and firing at the one time (which has never really been the case- Armo and Steven were both in top form in 2015, then Steven and to a lesser degree Seb in 2016, then Seb last year) and then if two or three or more of Dunstan, Acres, Steele, Sincs, Gresh, or Billings really step it up (in the midfield) with them, we could have a significantly better and deeper midfield than we've had in recent years.

If so, that will hold us in really good stead, given that most games are won in the midfield, and we've been able to win more games than we've lost over the last two years- with inferior midfields to what we could easily have this year.

Then up forward we could be good, with Bruce, Paddy and Skunk giving us 3 good and different marking targets, then the very talented Billings, Acres, Gresham, Clark and others around them and feeding them, and hopefully having the luxury of having guys like Stuv resting there more, and being dangerous.

I think that has the potential to be one of the better and most dangerous forward lines in the comp, although it's not necessarily as defensively capable as we'd like. We probably either need Mav to rediscover his mojo pretty quickly, or a Lonie or Long to really step up, unless say Clark is able to play that role well all year.

Then down back I think we're pretty capable and well balanced and will hopefully have a lot more pressure coming up from underneath, from the likes of White, Rice, Goddard, Austin and D-Mac, with another preseason under their belts, and perhaps Paton, in his first year.

I feel like we're definitely ready and that our options outside the 22 will be more ready to play and contribute than they were last year.

We've been knocking on the door of the 8 for 2 years now and while we've lost two who were best 22, in Nick and Joey, they only played 33 games between them last year and received just 5 of the 235 coaches votes those who played for us received in our last 10 wins of the year, so it's not like they were dominating, or getting us over the line. While on the flip side we potentially get back Armo and Paddy, who I feel can play at a comparable level to what they were, and add Clark and Coffield (amongst others who might surprise) and then we have a large group who are very talented (mostly drafted/bid on in the first round) coming into their prime years.

If we do have a good injury run and things generally go our way I don't think there will be any excuse in not making the 8. Our hard looking draw might mean we only scrape in if we do, but no excuses otherwise, IMO.

Great post mate

 

[Saintbloke]

From talking to some Tiger fans in the know, it seems that there was a lot of hands-on by those running the club last year and they made every effort to help out Hardwick and the players to get everyone on the same page. The club management, football dept and players really set up a seamless team effort- that's how you win.

 

[sunny3193]

This is from The Age website after some data manipulation by me.
It is the summation of their six experts final ladder position prediction plus the final ladder position prediction by readers. All have equal weighting. The lower the number, the higher ladder position predicted. The higher the number, the lower the final ladder position.

The six distinct groups are interesting, as is our 11th position.

That’s how the world sees us guys.

Top two:
GWS 16
Sydney 19

Battling for top four:
Geelong 27
Adelaide 28
Richmond 31

Battling to make the eight:
Port Adelaide 41
Melbourne 46
Essendon 49

The new ninthmond:
Western Bulldogs 61

Mid to low table only:
Hawthorn 76
St Kilda 80
West Coast 82
Collingwood 83

Wooden spoon contenders:
Fremantle 107
Carlton 108
Brisbane 109
North Melbourne 113
Gold Coast 119

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

This is from The Age website after some data manipulation by me.
It is the summation of their six experts final ladder position prediction plus the final ladder position prediction by readers. All have equal weighting. The lower the number, the higher ladder position predicted. The higher the number, the lower the final ladder position.

The six distinct groups are interesting, as is our 11th position.

That’s how the world sees us guys.

Top two:
GWS 16
Sydney 19

Battling for top four:
Geelong 27
Adelaide 28
Richmond 31

Battling to make the eight:
Port Adelaide 41
Melbourne 46
Essendon 49

The new Premiershipmond:
Western Bulldogs 61

Mid to low table only:
Hawthorn 76
St Kilda 80
West Coast 82
Collingwood 83

Wooden spoon contenders:
Fremantle 107
Carlton 108
Brisbane 109
North Melbourne 113
Gold Coast 119

thats interesting ... and i think a fair amount of bias involved in regards to the historical results of teams .. to say WCE and Collingwood are a higher chance then Fremantle stinks more of people making assesments on past results rather than looking at actual best teams ... WCE and collingwood for my mind are short of a huge show of good form destined for a bottom 4 finish i would be very suprised if either finish above freo or Gold Coast for that matter ..

in my opinion i think the ladder will be
Top 2
GWS - their list alone should get them this spot
Geelong - going all out to jag a flag, with games out in Geelong almost a lock to win even with them being a three trick pony they should win enough to be top two - come finals their over reliance on their big three will be their undoing

Battling for top 4
Sydney
Richmond
Port
Crows

Battling to make the eight:
Melbourne
Essendon
Us
Hawthorn

Mid to low table only:
Freo
Gold Coast
Brisbane

Wooden spoon contenders:
WCE
Carlton
Collingwood

 

[Mowman]

This is from The Age website after some data manipulation by me.
It is the summation of their six experts final ladder position prediction plus the final ladder position prediction by readers. All have equal weighting. The lower the number, the higher ladder position predicted. The higher the number, the lower the final ladder position.

The six distinct groups are interesting, as is our 11th position.

That’s how the world sees us guys.

Top two:
GWS 16
Sydney 19

Battling for top four:
Geelong 27
Adelaide 28
Richmond 31

Battling to make the eight:
Port Adelaide 41
Melbourne 46
Essendon 49

The new Premiershipmond:
Western Bulldogs 61

Mid to low table only:
Hawthorn 76
St Kilda 80
West Coast 82
Collingwood 83

Wooden spoon contenders:
Fremantle 107
Carlton 108
Brisbane 109
North Melbourne 113
Gold Coast 119

Pretty close to how I see it

 

[gringo2011]

Pretty close to how I see it

Yeah it's probably fair on how we finished the year. If we get a lot of improvement it can all change pretty quickly but it's a pretty fair list. It could for a few others to though. I reckon there is probably only 2 or 3 clubs that are pretty sure they can't make finals this year. The rest are all probably expecting or hoping for a spot in the 8.

 

[VDS66]

Where did you have us last year? The one thing you are is positive.

And you're negative. What's your point?

 

[plugger66]

And you're negative. What's your point?

I'm unbiased. Just wanted to know where he had us. That was my point. And nothing wrong with me saying he is positive. Don't know your point of the post.
Is it negative to think we will win around 10 to 11 games? Wouldn't think so. probably more than most unbiased people would think. And if I'm negative what are people who think we will lose this week, sack richo, sack players etc.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Where did you have us last year? The one thing you are is positive.

I don't tend to make precise predictions of where we'll finish (just like I haven't this preseason), because so much of it depends on what sort of injury run a team gets, but if I'd been asked the same question Mowman just asked me (where do I think we'll finish if we have a good injury run and things fall into place?) I would have probably said around 6th.

Had I been asked where I think we'll finish if Dempster retires on the eve of the season, Roo hurts his knee in R1 and is as a result largely a shadow of his 2016 self from about R6 onwards, Armo (off a reportedly full and excellent preseason) would injure his groin in R1 and play just 1 more game, Stuv would puncture his lung in R2 and be well short of his best and look unfit for the rest of the year (due to hamstring tendinitis robbing him of his big weapon), that Mav would struggle with an ankle injury and drop right off and that Paddy would not only not take a good step forward, but that he'd struggle, and then miss the last 9 games with concussion, I wouldn't have put bad money on us making the 8, and would have gladly taken an 11 win season- off one of the hardest draws of any team (playing 3 teams who made the 8 twice, plus Melbourne, who missed out by 1%).

If anything, under those circumstances we might have actually performed better than I would have expected, and that's on the back of us going pretty much exactly like I believed we were capable of in the previous two seasons, when in the preseasons leading in I was likewise supposedly being "positive" and "biased", when most didn't think we were capable of what I believed we were capable of (including you, by your own admission).

So maybe it's not that you're "unbiased", as you so unpretentiously put it, maybe you're just wrong. Again. And maybe I'm right for the 4th year in a row. Or maybe I'm "positive" and "biased". Time will tell.

 

[Sab22]

In the 8.

Last year we were hit hard by injuries to those who were most important to us (in particular Steven, Riewoldt and Armo, then to a lesser extent Mav and Paddy, etc), yet we still improved as a team from the year before (for all the reasons I've posted previously), but if we do have a good injury run this year, and other things generally go our way, I can see big improvement in our midfield in particular.

If we're say able to finally have all of Stuv, Seb and Armo fit and firing at the one time (which has never really been the case- Armo and Steven were both in top form in 2015, then Steven and to a lesser degree Seb in 2016, then Seb last year) and then if two or three or more of Dunstan, Acres, Steele, Sincs, Gresh, or Billings really step it up (in the midfield) with them, we could have a significantly better and deeper midfield than we've had in recent years.

If so, that will hold us in really good stead, given that most games are won in the midfield, and we've been able to win more games than we've lost over the last two years- with inferior midfields to what we could easily have this year.

Then up forward we could be good, with Bruce, Paddy and Skunk giving us 3 good and different marking targets, then the very talented Billings, Acres, Gresham, Clark and others around them and feeding them, and hopefully having the luxury of having guys like Stuv resting there more, and being dangerous.

I think that has the potential to be one of the better and most dangerous forward lines in the comp, although it's not necessarily as defensively capable as we'd like. We probably either need Mav to rediscover his mojo pretty quickly, or a Lonie or Long to really step up, unless say Clark is able to play that role well all year.

Then down back I think we're pretty capable and well balanced and will hopefully have a lot more pressure coming up from underneath, from the likes of White, Rice, Goddard, Austin and D-Mac, with another preseason under their belts, and perhaps Paton, in his first year.

I feel like we're definitely ready and that our options outside the 22 will be more ready to play and contribute than they were last year.

We've been knocking on the door of the 8 for 2 years now and while we've lost two who were best 22, in Nick and Joey, they only played 33 games between them last year and received just 5 of the 235 coaches votes those who played for us received in our last 10 wins of the year, so it's not like they were dominating, or getting us over the line. While on the flip side we potentially get back Armo and Paddy, who I feel can play at a comparable level to what they were, and add Clark and Coffield (amongst others who might surprise) and then we have a large group who are very talented (mostly drafted/bid on in the first round) coming into their prime years.

If we do have a good injury run and things generally go our way I don't think there will be any excuse in not making the 8. Our hard looking draw might mean we only scrape in if we do, but no excuses otherwise, IMO.

Hope we make the 8 just for this post.

 

[plugger66]

I don't tend to make precise predictions of where we'll finish (just like I haven't this preseason), because so much of it depends on what sort of injury run a team gets, but if I'd been asked the same question Mowman just asked me (where do I think we'll finish if we have a good injury run and things fall into place?) I would have probably said around 6th.

Had I been asked where I think we'll finish if Dempster retires on the eve of the season, Roo hurts his knee in R1 and is as a result largely a shadow of his 2016 self from about R6 onwards, Armo (off a reportedly full and excellent preseason) would injure his groin in R1 and play just 1 more game, Stuv would puncture his lung in R2 and be well short of his best and look unfit for the rest of the year (due to hamstring tendinitis robbing him of his big weapon), that Mav would struggle with an ankle injury and drop right off and that Paddy would not only not take a good step forward, but that he'd struggle, and then miss the last 9 games with concussion, I wouldn't have put bad money on us making the 8, and would have gladly taken an 11 win season- off one of the hardest draws of any team (playing 3 teams who made the 8 twice, plus Melbourne, who missed out by 1%).

If anything, under those circumstances we might have actually performed better than I would have expected, and that's on the back of us going pretty much exactly like I believed we were capable of in the previous two seasons, when in the preseasons leading in I was likewise supposedly being "positive" and "biased", when most didn't think we were capable of what I believed we were capable of (including you, by your own admission).

So maybe it's not that you're "unbiased", as you so unpretentiously put it, maybe you're just wrong. Again. And maybe I'm right for the 4th year in a row. Or maybe I'm "positive" and "biased". Time will tell.

First lot of your post is good but the last bit is a weird reaction to a simple question and probably a compliment about you being positive.
And I'm unbiased and I also could be wrong. Wrong with what I don't know.

 

[triggering bro]

Will we play finals? I have nfi tbh. Predicting the afl form year to year is like trying to work out how a women’s mind operates

 

[gringo2011]

Will we play finals? I have nfi tbh. Predicting the afl form year to year is like trying to work out how a women’s mind operates

Yeah I’m thinking somewhere between first and eighteenth.