Analysis The Road To (unlikely) Finals

ARCHIE66

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A Thread For all you Positive saints fans out there!

Fixtures that matter over the next 1 and 1/2 weeks

Dogs vs Dockers Sun 28 July 1:10pm
Norf vs Hawks Fri August 02 7:50 pm
Essendon vs Port Sat August 03 1:45pm
Freo vs Geelong Sat August 03 5:40pm
Adelaide vs St Kilda Sat August 03 7:40pm
Lions vs Dogs August Sat 04 4:40pm

Need to win every game from here on in and hope some results go our way.
 

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lewdogs

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The reason the stars seem to be aligning is that the sides around us have tough run-ins. Dogs play Bris at Gabba and GWS away as well as Essendon. Crows play WC in Perth which will be very tough. Hawks have WC in Perth and Giants away. So if we win all of ours we'll likely make it.
 

plugger66

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The reason the stars seem to be aligning is that the sides around us have tough run-ins. Dogs play Bris at Gabba and GWS away as well as Essendon. Crows play WC in Perth which will be very tough. Hawks have WC in Perth and Giants away. So if we win all of ours we'll likely make it.

I reckon we are certain if we win all 4. Do I think it happens? No.
 

Saint Watto

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The reason the stars seem to be aligning is that the sides around us have tough run-ins. Dogs play Bris at Gabba and GWS away as well as Essendon. Crows play WC in Perth which will be very tough. Hawks have WC in Perth and Giants away. So if we win all of ours we'll likely make it.

As mentioned in an earlier post of mine.....this all takes me back to the Boomer Harvey game late 2016.....the "will we ...won't we" talk was going on for weeks.

We blew that night big time and that was pretty well that for 2016.
 

wolfpup

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simple really. We play finals if we win all 4. If we don't we don't play finals.
my maths might be wrong but also bulldogs,hawks and power need to lose a game and adelaide need to lose 2 games.

spookingly (if that is a word), we play adelaide and freo means that if we win the last 4 games we put the crows on the canvass (next week) and knock out freo
 
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Nutsngum

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Yes I know but based on what I think logically happens I believe 12 wins with a crap percentage gets you in.
Based on the ladder predictor, if we win all remaining games then we make it. The other results would have to go heavily against expectations to not.

Of course, us winning all remaining games is pretty unlikely but who knoooows.
 

Plugger35

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All our remaining games are winnable but we'll probably drop at least one game, winning in Adelaide and Sydney is never easy and I wouldn't say Carlton are easybeats at the moment either. The Freo game is the only one I'd be confident of winning, they got flogged by the Dogs today and we beat them so we should beat Freo pretty comfortably too.

Would be great to sneak into finals but even if in the unlikely event we made it I couldn't see us doing much damage,you could say the same for all the other contenders for 8th spot though, they've all been inconsistent and are at a level below the top 4 or 5 teams.
 

pebblesofsand

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my maths might be wrong but also bulldogs,hawks and power need to lose a game and adelaide need to lose 2 games.

spookingly (if that is a word), we play adelaide and freo means that if we win the last 4 games we put the crows on the canvass (next week) and knock out freo
No your maths is perfect - but you forgot to add that on top of that we would still need to win each game by around 50 points per game.Lets call it by its true name

"The road to the highly implausible, but still mathematically possible finals."

Nothing wrong with finishing 13th - takes out the drama of having to pick a HBF at Pick 3 or 4.

Pick 7 - St Kilda Sam Flanders
 

Pumpkin Head 25

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I'd say if we win all four, we would be a very short price to make finals...

Adelaide (currently 36 points)

R20: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval L
R21: West Coast @ Optus Stadium L
R22: Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval W
R23: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium W

Result: 44 points (9th)

Dogs (currently 36)

R20: Brisbane @ Gabba L
R21: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium L
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium L
R23: Adelaide @ Mars Stadium L

Result: 36 13th

Port (32)

R20: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium L
R21: Sydney @ Adelaide Oval W
R22: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium W
R23: Fremantle @ Adelaide Oval W

Result 44 (10th)

Hawks (32)

R20: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium W
R21: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval L
R22: Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium W
R23: West Coast @ Optus Stadium L

Result: 40 (11th)

Freo (32)

R20: Geelong @ Optus Stadium W
R21: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium L
R22: Essendon @ Optus Stadium W
R23: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval L

Result: 40 (12th)

Saints (32)

R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval W
R21: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium W
R22: Carlton @ MCG W
R23: Sydney @ SCG W

Result: 48 (8th)
 
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bergholt

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Based on history with this group of players, any time finals becomes a possibility we s**t the bed. So not holding my breath.
Yeah, most likely outcome this week for mine is that the bubble pops big time. Betts 6, Jenkins 4, we lose by 8-10 goals.

Only chance of a win is if vintage Hanners comes in.

If we do win I’ll be a believer though.
 

CaptainRisky

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If we beat Adelaide in Adelaide and can keep Hanners and Stuv in the side I’ll back us in.

I actually cashed in on a multi i placed pre season a couple of weeks ago which had Cameron for Coleman, Neale for Brownlow and Saints to make the 8.... hope I didn’t jump the gun!!
Why would you cash out a multi like that , makes no sense whats so ever
 
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