Analysis The Road To (unlikely) Finals

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John2010362340

Debutant
Mar 10, 2017
146
950
AFL Club
St Kilda
This week is big on a few fronts, over the last few years minus last year, we lost every crunch game and not just lost embarrassed ourselves. I don’t expect to beat Adelaide as we just don’t play well against them. If we make finals great if we don’t and end up with 11 wins for the year I think that’s a good result and makes us attractive again for F/A.
 

NarklesHelmet

Premiership Player
Sep 17, 2010
4,471
14,273
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Manchester City, AIK, Raiders
Looking at what I think are our chances the next few weeks:

vs. Adelaide: 35% chance to win. Adelaide couldn't be going worse, us on an upswing make us some sort of a chance even at a ground that's a graveyard.
vs. Fremantle: 85% chance to win. Can't see us dropping this game at home to a team going pretty ordinarily of late.
vs. Carlton: 55% chance to win. Hate to say it, but this is going to be a very tough one for us. They are playing with a lot of spirit and have a dangerous midfield. A real toss of the coin.
vs. Sydney: 40% chance of winning. We haven't beaten them in AGES! So even though they are having a poor year, it's just not easy to feel confident about playing them.

When you really drill down on it, I don't think our end to the year is very easy at all. The Freo one is the only game I'll go in expecting to win so to even contemplate making the finals this far out requires plenty of wishful thinking.

Beat the Crows though and we can start daring to dream.
 

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Drake Huggins

Club Legend
May 2, 2018
1,981
7,698
The ghost of the G.G. Huggins Stand
AFL Club
St Kilda
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Stoke City, Southampton.
Shocked if we aren’t favourites. Reckon we are 70% chance of winning and maybe 90% chance of losing. Either way it’s 40/40 chamce
I'm in trouble. Your maths is starting to make sense to me, pluggs. In other news, tonight's result is ideal for us.

Out of the eight on percentage if we win tomorrow night. Shades of the rattling run to the top in 1997. Just don't remind me how that ended.

If we win our last four and first three finals, we'll find ourselves in the GF on the back of nine in a row. Just like 1997! Led that one at half time, before predictably finding a way to lose. The omens and coincidences are spooky. One more GF loss will just about finish me off!😢
 

Keg on legs

Premium Gold
Oct 5, 2014
14,584
48,359
The beer fridge
AFL Club
St Kilda
I'm in trouble. Your maths is startjng to make sense to me, pluggs. In other news, tonight's result is ideal for us.

Out of the eight on percentage if we win tomorrow night. Shades of the rattling run to the top in 1997. Just don't remind me how that ended.

If we win our last four and first three finals, we'll find ourselves in the GF on the back of nine in a row. Just like 1997! Led that one at half time, before predictably finding a way to lose. The omens and coincidences are spooky. One more GF loss will just about finish me off!😢
I love it Drake. So St Kilda... we are minimal chance of finals but we are already setting ourselves up to be prepared for a GF defeat :D
 

Drake Huggins

Club Legend
May 2, 2018
1,981
7,698
The ghost of the G.G. Huggins Stand
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Stoke City, Southampton.
I love it Drake. So St Kilda... we are minimal chance of finals but we are already setting ourselves up to be prepared for a GF defeat :D
You know my pain, brother. Only a fellow saint could! We are the Lucy Van Pelt of the comp. Every year she holds the ball for Charlie Brown. Every year he races in, his faced contorted by the determination of believing that this is the year he finally kicks it!

Every year she pulls the football away at the last moment, leaving Charlie sprawled out on his back, devastated by another failure.

Lucy is the club. We supporters are Charlie Brown. Good grief!
 

VDS66

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 4, 2011
20,843
53,641
AFL Club
St Kilda
I'm in trouble. Your maths is starting to make sense to me, pluggs. In other news, tonight's result is ideal for us.

Out of the eight on percentage if we win tomorrow night. Shades of the rattling run to the top in 1997. Just don't remind me how that ended.

If we win our last four and first three finals, we'll find ourselves in the GF on the back of nine in a row. Just like 1997! Led that one at half time, before predictably finding a way to lose. The omens and coincidences are spooky. One more GF loss will just about finish me off!😢
I'm.tipping more like 78 than 97...
 

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
15,262
48,851
Victoria
AFL Club
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One result has already gone our way with North Melbourne defeating Hawthorn.

This round we also need Geelong to beat Fremantle and Essendon to beat Port Adelaide this afternoon.

We win tonight and Brisbane beats the Western Bulldogs tomorrow and we'll find ourselves in 10th and only percentage out of the eight.
 

George

Moderator
Aug 17, 2015
15,262
48,851
Victoria
AFL Club
St Kilda
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Philadelphia Eagles Liverpool
Ran the ladder predictor, tried to accomodate for every scenario. Basically;

Saints win 4/4

And then we only need...

Crows to lose 1 more
Dogs to lose 2 more
Power to lose 1 more

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide in Round 23 so that'll play into our hands. Especially if the Lions beat the Dogs tomorrow, Adelaide lose to West Coast in Perth next week, and then the Crows beat the Dogs in R23 - which would knock them both out of finals.

Port lose to Essendon at Marvel today and we're one step closer.

Happy days...hopefully.
 
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