Analysis The Road To (unlikely) Finals

wolfpup

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Ran the ladder predictor, tried to accomodate for every scenario. Basically;

Saints win 4/4

And then we only need...

Crows to lose 1 more
Dogs to lose 2 more
Power to lose 1 more

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide in Round 23 so that'll play into our hands. Especially if the Lions beat the Dogs tomorrow, Adelaide lose to West Coast in Perth next week, and then the Crows beat the Dogs in R23 - which would knock them both out of finals.

Port lose to Essendon at Marvel today and we're one step closer.

Happy days...hopefully.

100% right.
The other variable is if we win all games by 70 odd points which would mean we could get our percentage over 100 and would help if the doggies only drop 1 game.
strange season is this 2019 one. by this time of the season i am reading up about draft picks
 

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George

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100% right.
The other variable is if we win all games by 70 odd points which would mean we could get our percentage over 100 and would help if the doggies only drop 1 game.
strange season is this 2019 one. by this time of the season i am reading up about draft picks
Yeah I've pretty much accepted the fact that we will need to make the eight a game clear of anyone else given our percentage is so poor. There's really no recovering from that huge discrepancy.

We can still make it if we lose tonight, but we would need to win our last three and have Adelaide lose their last three, along with a whole other bunch of scenarios. Tonight's game couldn't be any bigger.
 

Drake Huggins

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I'm.tipping more like 78 than 97...
Yes indeed. That's one that got away and isn't discussed much. Rattled home, having beaten eventual premiers, Hawthorn by 57 points at Arctic Park. It would be the hawks last loss that year. We beat the other grand finalist, Norf as well.

I'll never forget the filth sinking us at Filth Park in round 21. The following week we thrashed a red hot Carlton at Moorabbin, only to miss out by half a game. Sigh...😢
 

plugger66

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Yes indeed. That's one that got away and isn't discussed much. Rattled home, having beaten eventual premiers, Hawthorn by 57 points at Arctic Park. It would be the hawks last loss that year. We beat the other grand finalist, Norf as well.

I'll never forget the filth sinking us at Filth Park in round 21. The following week we thrashed a red hot Carlton at Moorabbin, only to miss out by half a game. Sigh...😢
The Essendon game killed us for many weeks mid season. Animals
 

Drake Huggins

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The Essendon game killed us for many weeks mid season. Animals
Indeed, Pluggs. We won 5 1/2 of the first 7. Then 5 of the last 6. Lost 8 out 9 after the Animals game at Moorabbin. Essendon became my most hated team after that, nudging past even Carlscum and the filth. My judgement was sound.

Nothing that s**tstain of a club has done since has changed my opinion. I'll never forget Glenn Hawker took me to a "pleasant Sunday morning" at Windy Hill in '84. (strippers and kegs)

I had to listen to that rat Elshaug and his mate Van der Haar endlessly hang s**t and scorn on the saints. It nearly got physical with Vanders. Thank goodness Simon Madden stepped in to calm things as the failing Dutchman threatened to have his bikie mates fix me up. I used the standard young copper's Comeback.
"I've got 8,000 in my gang. How many in yours?"
The penny dropped. He even tried a half arsed apology. The trout remained silent, whereas moments earlier he had been full of piss and vinegar, mainly piss.

When i finally ran into him at the club when he was trying to find a job to hide in, I reminded him of that day and his public refusal to play for a bad club like the saints if they had drafted him back in 1989.

"Any port in a storm, eh trout?" I quipped.

I tried to make light of it by putting out a fake giggle. He didn't seem all that impressed. Two faced campaigner. Back at the dopers now. Perfect fit.
 
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plugger66

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Indeed, Pluggs. We won 5 1/2 of the first 7. Then 5 of the last 6. Lost 8 out 9 after the Animals game at Moorabbin. Essendon became my most hated team after that, nudging past even Carlscum and the filth. My judgement was sound.

Nothing that s**tstain of a club has done since has changed my opinion. I'll never forget Glenn Hawker took me to a "pleasant Sunday morning" at Windy Hill in '84. (strippers and kegs)

I had to listen to that rat Elshaug and his mate Van der Haar endlessly hang s**t and scorn on the saints. It nearly got physical with Vanders. Thank goodness Simon Madden stepped in to calm things as the failing Dutchman threatened to have his bikie mates fix me up. I used the standard young copper's comeback to Elshaug was like a yaooy terrier, sniping from the sidelines.

When i finally ran into him at the club when he was trying to find a job to hide in, I reminded him of that day and his public refusal to play for a bad club like the saints if they had drafted him back in 1989.

"Any port in a storm, eh trout?" I quipped.
I tried to make light of it by putting out a fake giggle. He didn't seem all that impressed. Two faced campaigner.

As are most people. Unlike you I couldn't give a stuff what people say in their environment. I like Elshaug you don't. Ive known him for 50 years since I played against him. Only been nice to me. Each to their own. Certainly had nothing to do with the 78 game.
 

mightymalaka

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I reckon our season fell apart because of Doug Booth's bizarre moment of madness
When he kicked a stray dog in front of 75 thousand people at VFL Park!

Very little good will came our way after that moment! The Essendon game of course
Proved critical too with the fall out on our image and the subsequent suspensions
That came with it!
Typical bloody sooks Essendon! They are such Animals they cried!
Sadly we were not strong enough as a club to stand up and defend ourselves!
Familiar theme?
 

BigPowerForward

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Ran the ladder predictor, tried to accomodate for every scenario. Basically;

Saints win 4/4

And then we only need...

Crows to lose 1 more
Dogs to lose 2 more
Power to lose 1 more

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide in Round 23 so that'll play into our hands. Especially if the Lions beat the Dogs tomorrow, Adelaide lose to West Coast in Perth next week, and then the Crows beat the Dogs in R23 - which would knock them both out of finals.

Port lose to Essendon at Marvel today and we're one step closer.

Happy days...hopefully.
I ran the ladder predictor and tried to be as conservative as possible and I still ended up with us playing Richmond in the Grand Final :blush:
 

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George

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if port win today they'll have to lose to north at home (possible) for us to make the finals.. i think
Yep. If we are to win our last four games, we can't have Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs or Fremantle finish on 12 wins.

In Port's case, we need them to lose one of;

Home vs Sydney
Away vs North Melbourne
Home vs Fremantle
 

lewdogs

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The main two openings right now are Port dropping a game (only one that looks likely is Nth at Marvel, their other two are Sydney and Freo at home).
Or Essendon losing all three games (could happen).
And the small issue of us winning all of our games.
 
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