Prediction The Round 23 Equation: Where do we finish

[Keys]

So Round 23 is here and we can finish as high as 1st and as low as 5th. Here’s how

The games that matter (in order they are played)

Collingwood v Essendon (Fri night)
Geelong v Carlton (Sat arvo)
West Coast v Hawthorn (Sat night)
Richmond v Brisbane (Sun arvo)

•Finish 1st :

1)We win*
2)Carlton beat Geelong and
3)Richmond beat Brisbane*
*The combined margins of our game and the Richmond game need to be around 80 points for us to get ahead of Brisbane on %

•Finish 2nd

1) We win*
2)Carlton beat Geelong or
3)Richmond beat Brisbane*
*The combined margins of our game and the Richmond game need to be around 80 points for us to get ahead of Brisbane on %

•Finish 3rd

1) We win and % order doesn’t change or
2) We lose and both Richmond and Collingwood also lose

•Finish 4th

1) We lose and only one of Richmond or Collingwood win
2) We win but Richmond poleaxe Brisbane by around 50 points more than we beat Hawthorn by

•Finish 5th

1) We lose and both Richmond and Collingwood win

If Collingwood lose on Friday night we are guaranteed top 4
If Geelong lose a win almost guarantees top 2 (Richmond would need to hammer Brisbane to leapfrog us on %)

So go bombers, go blues, go Lions and

GO EAGLES

UP THE BLOODY COASTERS

 

[FKASC]

Carn

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

I suspect the current top 4 positions won't change.
Geelong will beat Carlton.
We'll beat Hawks comfortably but not by enough to overtake Brisbane's percentage.
Brisbane win or lose determines if they finish 1st or 2nd, which in the scheme of finals makes no difference.

As long as we play Geelong at the MCG in finals, not Kardinia Park, I'm confident we'll be playing in the grand final (if we play cats week 1, we win and have home prelim. If we play Brisbane, we play Geelong in Prelim at MCG).

Geelong hanging on by the skin of their teeth, but playing well below the other top 4 sides. Their ageing list seems cooked.

What can derail us is if we play Richmond at the MCG in the prelim (should they win week 1). For this reason I prefer to play Geelong week 1, as I reckon Tigers will smash Geelong at the MCG.

 

[FKASC]

We melt a bit but feeling pretty good to be backing up a flag with a situation where we’re almost guaranteed top 4.

We’ve also been treated to some absolutely scintillating footy this year (albeit patchy)

 

[Candiru]

We finish third with 16 wins. Just as I predicted at the start of June.

 

[shooshka]

The perfect Saturday involves:
Saints win
Carlton win
Eagles win

we get top 2, and Sydney drop from 4th last to 3rd last.

 

[Doashuey]

I think top 2 is unlikely. If that's the case then the ideal scenario has Brisbane beating Richmond to maintain top spot.
That way we get Gelong after a bye at the MCG which I think we would win comfortably and Richmond will have to travel interstate- which recent seasons have shown they are s**t at.
We then get the week off and get the winner of Richmond and whoever, lets assume Richmond win that. They then need to travel interstate to Optus- which we should win again.
Meanwhile, if Geelong dont go out in straight sets, they need to beat Brisbane at the Gabba.
I think our hardest opponent in a GF if we get there will be Richmond. So having them travel interstate twice offers the best chance of them being knocked out.
That said, Pies and Dogs could possibly knock out teams in a semi.

The only issue with this scenario is if Brisbane beat Tigers at the G, that would make them a much tougher prospect than first thought in a GF.

 

[ChampRevesby]

We will win and finish 3rd. We lose and we deserve 5th.

 

[Rowan18]

I think top 2 is unlikely. If that's the case then the ideal scenario has Brisbane beating Richmond to maintain top spot.
That way we get Gelong after a bye at the MCG which I think we would win comfortably and Richmond will have to travel interstate- which recent seasons have shown they are s**t at.
We then get the week off and get the winner of Richmond and whoever, lets assume Richmond win that. They then need to travel interstate to Optus- which we should win again.
Meanwhile, if Geelong dont go out in straight sets, they need to beat Brisbane at the Gabba.
I think our hardest opponent in a GF if we get there will be Richmond. So having them travel interstate twice offers the best chance of them being knocked out.
That said, Pies and Dogs could possibly knock out teams in a semi.

The only issue with this scenario is if Brisbane beat Tigers at the G, that would make them a much tougher prospect than first thought in a GF.

Agree with this. I think top 2 is gone (or about a 5% chance of happening) so I would be happy to finish third and force this result.

I expect geelong will destroy blues, we'll beat Hawthorn by a comfortable but not great margin (3-4goals), Collingwood will win but Richmond will beat Lions in a close one. Leaving Geelong 1st, Brisbane 2nd, us third and Richmond 4th. That is not a great scenario as it almost guarantees Richmond a GF berth after they smash Geelong wk1.

 

[ChampRevesby]

Agree with this. I think top 2 is gone (or about a 5% chance of happening) so I would be happy to finish third and force this result.

I expect geelong will destroy blues, we'll beat Hawthorn by a comfortable but not great margin (3-4goals), Collingwood will win but Richmond will beat Lions in a close one. Leaving Geelong 1st, Brisbane 2nd, us third and Richmond 4th. That is not a great scenario as it almost guarantees Richmond a GF berth after they smash Geelong wk1.

They must have got on their knees a lot in 2018 to get the string of games late in the season at the MCG again. Welcome to circa 2017.
Geelong did sell their soul to the AFL gods for the $$$ to play at the MCG.

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

Probably going to be 3rd and travelling. 2nd went bye bye when we lost to Richmond.

 

[Broken_Chairs]

Fully expect us to finish third.

Must beat hawks, and if we have the opportunity to increase our lead then we go hard for it and see how the cards fall

 

[cottoneyeYeo]

who would we rather verse week 1 brisbane or geelong people are saying geelong at the G but i don't get that logic

 

[WCE Wizard]

We simply have to win and lock in 3rd then its anyone game

 

[Candiru]

Fully expect us to finish third.

Must beat hawks, and if we have the opportunity to increase our lead then we go hard for it and see how the cards fall

How about we try to hammer them from the first bell?

 

[Candiru]

who would we rather verse week 1 brisbane or geelong people are saying geelong at the G but i don't get that logic

Verse? Like in a song?

 

[Candiru]

Probably going to be 3rd and travelling. 2nd went bye bye when we lost to Richmond.

Win by 60, hope Richmond win by 20.

 

[woosha24]

who would we rather verse week 1 brisbane or geelong people are saying geelong at the G but i don't get that logic

I would prefer an inexperienced Brisbane IF we don't have to play in disgusting heat.

If the pressure ramps up I think they will crack first. Just cant afford to have our usual second/ third quarter nap and instead play through the crankiness.

 

[Candiru]

I think top 2 is unlikely. If that's the case then the ideal scenario has Brisbane beating Richmond to maintain top spot.
That way we get Gelong after a bye at the MCG which I think we would win comfortably and Richmond will have to travel interstate- which recent seasons have shown they are s**t at.

If Richmond lose, they likely finish 5th.

 

[cottoneyeYeo]

Verse? Like in a song?

why is it that on bigfooty everyone turns everything in to a sarcastic joke that isn't really that funny LOL

 

[Candiru]

why is it that on bigfooty everyone turns everything in to a sarcastic joke that isn't really that funny LOL

I guess that's what happens when people make up words.

 

[Ok Boomer]

Tuggers to do us a solid and belt Brisbane and we finish second

All seriousness unless we absolutely utensil it up, we will be heading to the Gabba

 

[Candiru]

Tuggers to do us a solid and belt Brisbane and we finish second

All seriousness unless we absolutely utensil it up, we will be heading to the Gabba

Or Brisbane win and then we play Geelong, assuming we win.

 

[Dazzler9]

why is it that on bigfooty everyone turns everything in to a sarcastic joke that isn't really that funny LOL

[the word is versus. No such word as verse in this context. (Not taking sides, just pointing it out)].

 

[Ok Boomer]

Or Brisbane win and then we play Geelong, assuming we win.

I'd prefer this, but I think Richmond will do the job at home.