Prediction The Round 23 Equation: Where do we finish

Where will we finish?

  • 5th - Fold the club

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .

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If Richmond lose, they likely finish 5th.
Friday night is going to be very interesting. We want Essendon to win to lock away top 4 but if we win against the Hawks we probably want the Pies winning to keep the pressure on Richmond.
 

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Friday night is going to be very interesting. We want Essendon to win to lock away top 4 but if we win against the Hawks we probably want the Pies winning to keep the pressure on Richmond.
I want Pies winning, absolutely.

On one hand, it keeps pressure on Tigers. And if the Tigers lose, they slip to 5th, which I'd welcome.

I'm not interested in an insurance policy for us losing to the Hawks. We just have to win and win well. No point hoping for a safety net.
 
If Richmond lose, they likely finish 5th.
That would also work. I neglected to include in my scenario that we beat Hawks and finish 3rd.
So if Tigers finish 5th they play Elimination at home and if Im not mistaken, they would play the loser of 2v3 away the following week.
So they either play us at Optus if we lose v cats or cats at home and then play Brisbane at the Gabba for the Prelim (assuming Lions beat Pies).
In both scenarios, the tigers face an elimination final interstate and that will be their undoing.
A lot of water to pass under the bridge yet though...
 
That would also work. I neglected to include in my scenario that we beat Hawks and finish 3rd.
So if Tigers finish 5th they play Elimination at home and if Im not mistaken, they would play the loser of 2v3 away the following week.
You're mistaken.

Loser of 1 v 4 plays winner of 5 v 8
Loser of 2 v 3 plays winner of 6 v 7

If the Tigers finish 5th and we play Geelong in Melbourne in 2 v 3, if we win that in week 1 it would also mean Richmond have to come through us in Perth in a PF. That could actually be the crucial part.

Of course, if we lose in week 1, we probably get the Dogs in week 2, which I'd prefer to avoid.
 
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You're mistaken.

Loser of 1 v 4 plays winner of 5 v 8
Loser of 2 v 3 plays winner of 6 v 7

If the Tigers finish 5th and we play Geelong in Melbourne in 2 v 3, if we win that in week 1 it would also mean Richmond have to come through us in Perth in a PF. That could actually be the crucial part.
Ok in that case (asuming it finishes Lions cats WC Pies) and assuming Lions and WC win, it wont make much difference if it is semi week or prelim week, they will travel interstate. If they get to play finals at home the whole way through they most likely make the GF, if they travel to QLD or WA I reckon they get beat.
What we dont want is Cats 1, tigers 4th as that would mean (all going to script) they dont leave the G for 12 weeks straight (including byes).
 
Ok in that case (asuming it finishes Lions cats WC Pies) and assuming Lions and WC win, it wont make much difference if it is semi week or prelim week, they will travel interstate. If they get to play finals at home the whole way through they most likely make the GF, if they travel to QLD or WA I reckon they get beat.
What we dont want is Cats 1, tigers 4th as that would mean (all going to script) they dont leave the G for 12 weeks straight (including byes).
Sure. But that also means you are hoping Lions win in R23, ruling out our chances of finishing top 2.
 
Hawthorn will just roll over. They are that kind.

Just like they did with Fev in his 100 goal season. No dirty tricks, no rough play, no clogging just one on one with Fev so he got his 100th goal.

I presume hawks will do what they did with fev and not clog it up so lots of goals will be kicked.
 

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I'm not interested in an insurance policy for us losing to the Hawks. We just have to win and win well. No point hoping for a safety net.

Agreed. If we lose to Hawthorn and finish 5th we may as well stay home for the finals because we wont trouble anyone anywhere. What Collingwood does shouldn't factor into the equation beyond ensuring that Richmond have to turn up on Sunday.
 
I think our chances of top 2 are done.
Increasingly unlikely but not done. Depends on margins. Why can't we beat Hawthorn by 60?

The other consideration is if we finish third, as expected, what is our preferred road trip in week 1: Brisbane in Brisbane or Geelong in Melbourne.
 
Agreed. If we lose to Hawthorn and finish 5th we may as well stay home for the finals because we wont trouble anyone anywhere. What Collingwood does shouldn't factor into the equation beyond ensuring that Richmond have to turn up on Sunday.
And possibly knocking them down to 5th, which could be massive in the scheme of things.

But yeah, no point hoping for a safety net if we lose to Hawthorn. We need to drop the hammer and we should be primed.
 
Increasingly unlikely but not done. Depends on margins. Why can't we beat Hawthorn by 60?

The other consideration is if we finish third, as expected, what is our preferred road trip in week 1: Brisbane in Brisbane or Geelong in Melbourne.
Preference
1. Geelong MCG
2. Brisbane GABBA
3. Geelong GMBHA (is that still a possibility?)
 
We can win every game from here if we rock up with the mentality of wanting to put in 4 quarters. We can kick up a gear when we need to but seems that once we think its a winning score go into preservation mode and not get injured.
 
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