Prediction The run home, 2020

[demondavey]

Four games to go;
Sydney
Fremantle
GWS
Essendon

Currently sitting 8th with a percentage equal to Collingwood and a game behind St Kilda. Would like the honest opinions of how we will finish given the way we are going. Form been pretty good the last 5 weeks bar an aberration against the WB. We let St Kilda back in last night but managed to negate a lot of their thrust and parry in the third to hold on and get the win. Great maturity and a millionaire defence earned their pay.

Personally I am feeling reasonably confident. I think we may drop one to either GWS or Essendon, but most likely the Giants if we go missing. Fremantle a risky proposition also. I think we should do enough to make the 8 this year, how it will turn out is anyone’s guess.

Keen to get the general thoughts and feelings of supporters re finals and whether or not it’s on this year.

Cheers

(apologies if this needs merging if there’s something else active)

 

[schmuttt]

Absolutely need to beat the Swans and Freo then we should win 1 of GWS/Essendon, preferably GWS as thats an 8 point game.

 

[demondavey]

Absolutely need to beat the Swans and Freo then we should win 1 of GWS/Essendon, preferably GWS as thats an 8 point game.

I tend to think the next 2 should be wins. If they aren’t then we really have no chance against the last 2. GWS will be the tough one. Essendon? Who knows which team arrives but I don’t think they’re great.

 

[mrmonkey]

I feel a little bit more confident after last night. Swans were pretty good against port but I think we should be able to defend them well just need to be really efficient forward. Freo have been reasonable but perhaps their young team running out of steam. GWS look as if they've regained their mojo will be tough. Essendon can't get a read on them but I reckon we win that.

 

[Tulip]

If they aren’t then we really have no chance against the last 2.

WHY does this attitude still exist.

In a year with no home ground factor, the GWS and Essendon games are 50/50ish, the Swans 60/40 our way as they're still a competitive unit, and the Dockers around the 75/25 mark.

We could quite easily lose to Sydney by 20 odd and then win the next three. Or squeak past Sydney, have a bad day vs Freo and then spank GWS and Essendon as we match up well on them.

 

[demondavey]

WHY does this attitude still exist.

In a year with no home ground factor, the GWS and Essendon games are 50/50ish, the Swans 60/40 our way as they're still a competitive unit, and the Dockers around the 75/25 mark.

We could quite easily lose to Sydney by 20 odd and then win the next three. Or squeak past Sydney, have a bad day vs Freo and then spank GWS and Essendon as we match up well on them.

Just a line of thought whereby I think Sydney and Fremantle aren’t as good as the other two. I don’t think we will lose one if we play our best footy to be honest.

 

[slackboy72]

Just a line of thought whereby I think Sydney and Fremantle aren’t as good as the other two. I don’t think we will lose one if we play our best footy to be honest.

Agree but the last two weeks have been well down on our best.
Fact is we could have been as high as 9-4 or as low as 5-8.
If we finish 10-7 we will have rebounded well from the shithole of 2019.

 

[Topkent]

This thread gives me nightmares of the 2017 version

 

[demondavey]

This thread gives me nightmares of the 2017 version

Good point. It’s nightmare inducing. I think we are a lot better now though.

 

[LeverPuller]

In your calculations no point considering Pies’ percentage. The Richmond draw offsets it. Bigger factor is that they get a bye this week; we are even on games played after Thursday.

 

[LeverPuller]

Re the 4 to come:

SYD - not particularly hard to neuter if you go the shutdown path and they don’t have a plan B. Incredibly hard for them to score - they have cracked a 12-goal equivalent twice this season, and that was 74pts in Round 1 and 73pts in Rd2. In short, if you crack 12 goals you are more than likely to win.

FRE - Similar but much more able defensively. Freo have cracked 12 goals only once, but are very good at keeping other sides down - only 2 sides have cracked that mark against them. Likely to be a slogfest.

GWS - depends on which GWS show up on the day.

ESS - useless against good opposition. Play well and we knock them over.

All reliant on us playing well, but IF we do I can easily see us winning 3/4 and the 4th depends on which GWS we see.

Now I’m off to encase myself in wood.

 

[TheCount]

In your calculations no point considering Pies’ percentage. The Richmond draw offsets it. Bigger factor is that they get a bye this week; we are even on games played after Thursday.

Their bye is the next round, so we’ll be even (with everyone) on Wednesday week

 

[LeverPuller]

Their bye is the next round, so we’ll be even (with everyone) on Wednesday week

Oh whoops

 

[Crusty Demon]

I think we'll win 2. No idea which 2. I still think we'll fall just short.

 

[Topkent]

I think we'll win 2. No idea which 2. I still think we'll fall just short.

I think we lose to GWS and Essendon. Being a mentally fragile side doesn't just vanish

 

[TheCount]

I think we lose to GWS and Essendon. Being a mentally fragile side doesn't just vanish

So how is Essendon winning?

Not discounting a teams desire to spoil things for another team in the last round, but they played West Coast, Geelong and Port the next 3 days, so their season will be long gone by the time we play them

 

[Topkent]

So how is Essendon winning?

Not discounting a teams desire to spoil things for another team in the last round, but they played West Coast, Geelong and Port the next 3 days, so their season will be long gone by the time we play them

By scoring more than us.

 

[djpaulydemon]

I reckon we will drop 1 to Sydney or Freo and Beat GWS. Then lose to Essendon who have nothing to gain except knocking us out - 2017 style

 

[TheCount]

By scoring more than us.

You’re better than this

 

[Topkent]

You’re better than this

If they play confident footy they can mimic the saints at their best. No reason they couldn't out run us

 

[Pee Tear Griffin]

Could say the exact same thing about us. If we play our best and can pressure and outmuscle Essendon, who are seriously ******* weak in the contest, and score heavily through turnovers and from stoppages, we should and I expect will beat them. The key to it all will be how we setup around stoppages...can't have everyone getting sucked in allowing the wide handball to space/an outside runner. We'll need to put some serious work into McGrath too.

 

[Jamurp]

Don't think I could bare to watch if we had to beat Essendon to make the 8, I've still got ptsd from THAT weekend in 2017.

 

[demondavey]

So how is Essendon winning?

Not discounting a teams desire to spoil things for another team in the last round, but they played West Coast, Geelong and Port the next 3 days, so their season will be long gone by the time we play them

It’ll be the classic case of ‘playing for something’ that would motivate them should this be the case. Blokes playing for contracts, wanting to make a stand etc.

 

[demondavey]

Could say the exact same thing about us. If we play our best and can pressure and outmuscle Essendon, who are seriously ******* weak in the contest, and score heavily through turnovers and from stoppages, we should and I expect will beat them. The key to it all will be how we setup around stoppages...can't have everyone getting sucked in allowing the wide handball to space/an outside runner. We'll need to put some serious work into McGrath too.

Spot on. Can’t let them get wide. But I am confident our backline can hold up against most forwards. May and Lever in great touch. Can see them overcoming lots of I50 and responding. Id just want to be sure we could stop their outside run, we will smash them inside.

 

[00Stinger]

WHY does this attitude still exist.

In a year with no home ground factor, the GWS and Essendon games are 50/50ish, the Swans 60/40 our way as they're still a competitive unit, and the Dockers around the 75/25 mark.

We could quite easily lose to Sydney by 20 odd and then win the next three. Or squeak past Sydney, have a bad day vs Freo and then spank GWS and Essendon as we match up well on them.

v Sydney 75-25
v Dockers 75-25
v GWS 50-50
v Essendon 70-30