Prediction The run home, 2020

Winning a flag is what it's all about. Preferably build a team/club that will be consistent like a Geelong/Hawthorn/West Coast/Sydney and snag one or two. I just want one. I really couldn't care if we fall off a cliff after winning one. Not often a player like Petracca has been at our club. He's a Dusty and Danger type who will carry us on their backs week in week out. Even though he's only really done it consistently this season, I'm confident Trac is onwards and upwards from here. And having players like Oliver, Gawn and May who are also stars in their own right add to the fact we should be pushing. Our next few years are crucial. We have to make the right calls.
The point is that we shouldn’t fall off a cliff. We have a very solid age profile with Petracca, Lever, Weid and Oliver etc in the middle. Even after they retire we should have a senior nucleus of Rivers, Jackson, Pickett and other players who’ve shown a bit in Petty, Sparrow, Spargo, etc, so if the club can develop them along with the guys they seem to rate internally for whatever reason like Jordon, Bradtke and Baker all we need to do is occasionally add talent to the midfield and maybe a KPP here and there. We shouldn’t be worrying about holding onto draft picks in the next few years if we can keep topping up and win a flag or two in the next five years.
 

Demon bhoy

Club Legend
Oct 7, 2017
1,665
1,495
AFL Club
Melbourne
oh yeah sorry i didn't mean it like that i used a bad example. You have to make sure that if you're going to trade 1st rounders, that the player you're getting will play at least 4-5 years for the club. Thats how you extend you're time in the premiership window, thats what the likes of hawthorn and richmond did.

Edit: holy crap i just realized i'm talking out my arse here. You're completely right
Hawthorn and Richmond built their premierships on Drafting, same as Geelong
 

Crusty Demon

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 20, 2009
7,863
8,310
Brighton
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Leeds United
Come back Joe Gutnick! Clarko is ripe for the picking!

We need money asap.
There's no way Goody is getting moved on. Especially if we make finals this season. Not sure he's the man who can take us to the promised land, but I just hope he doesn't ruin our list in the next couple of years. Recent history suggests a coach can turn things around (Bomber Thompson/Hardwick). I'd love to see some better assistant coaches put in place and a few holes on field filled (another wingman/goal sneak/running defender). He does this and we are a chance..
 

CTHORANGE

Premiership Player
May 7, 2012
3,143
3,004
AFL Club
Melbourne
Really though, aside from Geelong and Richmond, (and WC in Perth) all the top 8 are prone to a sh*t performance or two. Depends on who shows up on the night.

Yeh true and it's another reason why making the finals, even if we do end up scraping in, is a good thing
 

nacnud

motw
Dec 3, 2018
106
143
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Huh?
Remember when Hawthorn and Richmond traded for the now and won 5 flags between them?


Remember how GWS have never won a flag?


Classic Melbourne logic, if you never try win a flag you can never be disappointed

IMO, trying to trade your way up the ladder only works when you have a decent number of core drafted players in the same age bracket to begin with. Only then can you fill in gaps with other players.

E.g. hawks were able to do that before their threepeat because they already had a drafted core of Mitchell, hodge, Roughead, Birchall, Lewis etc. so they could afford to bring in blokes like Burgoyne, gunston, Gibson etc.

Same with richmond who already had drafted Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt etc so they could bring in mature ages like Prestia, caddy and others.

Contrast this to Essendon and North who tried to trade their way to premierships but without first going to the draft, which is royally blowing up in their faces (specifically in North’s case).
 

Topkent

Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Aug 29, 2010
61,051
84,957
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
IMO, trying to trade your way up the ladder only works when you have a decent number of core drafted players in the same age bracket to begin with. Only then can you fill in gaps with other players.

E.g. hawks were able to do that before their threepeat because they already had a drafted core of Mitchell, hodge, Roughead, Birchall, Lewis etc. so they could afford to bring in blokes like Burgoyne, gunston, Gibson etc.

Same with richmond who already had drafted Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt etc so they could bring in mature ages like Prestia, caddy and others.

Contrast this to Essendon and North who tried to trade their way to premierships but without first going to the draft, which is royally blowing up in their faces (specifically in North’s case).


Essendon went plenty to the draft, no one thought Richmond had a 'core' group of stars until they won the flag. You can either be proactive and try and win a premiership or you can sit on your hands and develop.
 

nacnud

motw
Dec 3, 2018
106
143
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Essendon went plenty to the draft, no one thought Richmond had a 'core' group of stars until they won the flag. You can either be proactive and try and win a premiership or you can sit on your hands and develop.

I’m pretty sure people thought Cotchin (2012 Brownlow), Riewoldt (2010 and 2012 Coleman), and Martin (2016 all Australian) were a core group of stars before they won the flag mate. Oh and I forgot to mention Alex Rance.

And yes Essendon did use the draft, but clearly no where near to the extent necessary for consistent finals contention.
 

Topkent

Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Aug 29, 2010
61,051
84,957
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
I’m pretty sure people thought Cotchin (2012 Brownlow), Riewoldt (2010 and 2012 Coleman), and Martin (2016 all Australian) were a core group of stars before they won the flag mate. Oh and I forgot to mention Alex Rance.

And yes Essendon did use the draft, but clearly no where near to the extent necessary for consistent finals contention.
If 4 players is a core then Essendon had Daniher, Merrett, Hurley, Shiel etc

We have May, Oliver, Gawn, Petracca if that's all you need for a core.
 
Apr 12, 2014
30,331
52,240
AFL Club
Melbourne
Essendon went plenty to the draft, no one thought Richmond had a 'core' group of stars until they won the flag. You can either be proactive and try and win a premiership or you can sit on your hands and develop.

Essendon kinda went to the draft but didn't do that well.

2013 - No first round pick due to sanctions
2014 - Langford and Laverde both as late first round picks. Langford is a C grader who might go to B grade if he continues his form, Laverde has 45 games in 6 years and is likely gone at seasons end
2015 - Parish and Francis in the first round, Parish looks a good player but won't be elite and the jury is out on Francis
2016 - McGrath was a good pick 1
2017 - Traded out their first to get Devon Smith
2018 - Traded out their 2018 and 2019 firsts for Shiel. They got absolutely fleeced here IMO
2019 - Traded their first as above

From 5 first round picks there they've gotten one potential A grader in McGrath, a guy who should be a solid 200 gamer in Parish and three big question marks. If you want to build a premiership side you need to get 3-4 genuine guns from the draft and they haven't done that. I think they've got some big worries with their list as I don't see them being bad enough to bottom out but its tough to see the group they have produce a flag in the next 2-3 years (I have the same fear for us but we're slightly better IMO).
 

nacnud

motw
Dec 3, 2018
106
143
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
If 4 players is a core then Essendon had Daniher, Merrett, Hurley, Shiel etc

We have May, Oliver, Gawn, Petracca if that's all you need for a core.

It’s clearly a complex issue though. Essendon don’t have enough 22-25 year old talented players coming through who will take them to a premiership.

By “core”, I don’t just mean star players, I mean the number of important players in the best 22 who fit a common age bracket.

E.g. In addition to the Melbourne players you’ve stated, our core players would also include Weideman, harmes, brayshaw, Viney, and even fu**ing Omac (say what you want about him) in the 23-26 age bracket.
 
Last edited:

Demon bhoy

Club Legend
Oct 7, 2017
1,665
1,495
AFL Club
Melbourne
If 4 players is a core then Essendon had Daniher, Merrett, Hurley, Shiel etc

We have May, Oliver, Gawn, Petracca if that's all you need for a core.
The 4 Richmond players are in a whole different class to the Essendon Players and only 2 of the dees players have actually achieved anything to this point
 
If 4 players is a core then Essendon had Daniher, Merrett, Hurley, Shiel etc

We have May, Oliver, Gawn, Petracca if that's all you need for a core.
The earths core only makes up 15% of the earths volume. If we apply that model of what constitutes a core, then 15% of a starting 22 would be 3.3 players so 4 players is actually 0.7% more core than we need.

Premiership her we come.
 
Lmao the Tigers had six players in their 2017 grand final side who came from other clubs. Houli, Grigg and Townsend they got basically for free and Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis they got for a first, second and third rounder the year before. It’s hardly like they went hard at the trade table year after year to win a flag, it was one draft period they compromised after having a s**t year in 2016. Then they brought Lynch in for free to replace Grigg but still had 16 players they drafted in the 2019 grand final.

Meanwhile we already have May, Lever, Melksham, Hibberd and Langdon who’ve cost us three first rounders and three second rounders in total so it’s not like we’re gun shy compared to them.
 

Topkent

Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Aug 29, 2010
61,051
84,957
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
The 4 Richmond players are in a whole different class to the Essendon Players and only 2 of the dees players have actually achieved anything to this point

Revisionist though,
If you're saying 4 people is a core then everyone has a potential core and doesn't need to draft anymore.
 

HANDSOLO

Club Legend
May 19, 2014
1,508
1,776
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Broncos
So anyway I had another look at the predictor today - I think percentage is going to be so important, its our only hope if we drop 2 of the next 4.
Our 2 wins need to be >30 points and our 2 losses <10 points
 

Demon bhoy

Club Legend
Oct 7, 2017
1,665
1,495
AFL Club
Melbourne
Revisionist though,
If you're saying 4 people is a core then everyone has a potential core and doesn't need to draft anymore.
I wasn’t saying anything about what constitutes a core, I was just pointing out the comparison you used is a poor one as the Richmond group is in a different class altogether than the Essendon players in particular and the Melbourne players to a lesser extent
 

Topkent

Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Aug 29, 2010
61,051
84,957
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
I wasn’t saying anything about what constitutes a core, I was just pointing out the comparison you used is a poor one as the Richmond group is in a different class altogether than the Essendon players in particular and the Melbourne players to a lesser extent
Yeah they weren't in 2017 when they topped up though
 

saj_21

Cancelled
Melbourne Board Tipping Champion
Aug 30, 2007
9,004
6,155
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Warney's IPL team!
Lmao the Tigers had six players in their 2017 grand final side who came from other clubs. Houli, Grigg and Townsend they got basically for free and Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis they got for a first, second and third rounder the year before. It’s hardly like they went hard at the trade table year after year to win a flag, it was one draft period they compromised after having a sh*t year in 2016. Then they brought Lynch in for free to replace Grigg but still had 16 players they drafted in the 2019 grand final.

Meanwhile we already have May, Lever, Melksham, Hibberd and Langdon who’ve cost us three first rounders and three second rounders in total so it’s not like we’re gun shy compared to them.

Richmond also had A graders in Cotchin, Martin, Rance. Added in some good talent via trading/draft picks. Completely transformed their culture, Martin went from being really good to really elite.

They were also a laughing stock after their GWS loss halfway through 2017 and were 6-6 or 6-7 midway through that year.

Full credit to them.
 
Back