Prediction The Run Home - 2021

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Lord_Flashheart

Chicken Twisty Epicurean
Oct 28, 2009
10,576
18,618
The Whore Tree
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Coney Island Dockers
Lets put on some rose coloured glasses for a moment and have a look at the final 6 rounds of the year.

Where do we end up. Chris Burgess is still using the F word. Is it possible? Mathematically, for the moment, yes it is.

How likely is that, lets have a look below:

Round 18
This round I don't expect us to get over the Bulldogs. If the rest of the round goes as expected then we will stay where we are in 14th spot
If Collingwood knock off Carlton we will drop a spot.(Carlton are favourites but only just)

Port V Geelong ✔
Richmond v Lions ✖
Giants v Swans ✔
Melbourne
v Hawks Draw
Suns v Bulldogs ✔
Saints v Port ✔
North v Essendon ✔
Collingwood v Carlton ✔
Adelaide v West Coast ✔

Round 19

I don't expect us to knock off the Demons either. the Giants need to knock over Essendon. Geelong should account for Richmond on current form and West Coast defeat St Kilda

Port v Collingwood ✔
Carlton v North ✖
Lions v Suns ✖
Eagles
v Saints ✔
Demons v Bulldogs ✖
Crows v
Hawks ✖
Swans
v Dockers ✔
Cats v Richmond ✔
Bombers v
Giants ✔

Round 20

Some games need to go our way here and we need to play like we have lately to beat Brisbane with their depleted squad (This will be a determining round if the above has gone to plan)
Dockers will need to beat the Tigers, I've given this game to Melbourne but it wont effect us either way.

Essendon v Swans
North v Cats
Melbourne
v Suns
Saints v Carlton
Bulldogs v Crows
Hawks v Lions
Port
v Giants
Collingwood v Eagles
Dockers
v Richmond

Round 21
We need to beat Carlton this time, I don't care if its in the last 5 seconds of the match, it needs to happen. Lions need to beat Fremantle after getting pantsed by the Suns the week before to keep within the top 4. We're still in 14th spot but only a game out of the 8

Carlton v Suns
Geelong
v Giants
Hawks v Collingwood
Tigers v North
Saints v Swans
Bulldogs
v Essendon
Adelaide v Port
Dockers v Lions
Eagles v Demons

Round 22


Time to make our move, beat Essendon we move into 10th spot. Giants need to beat the Tigers and keep them at 12th by the end of the year and Eagles need to beat Fremantle

Lions v Collingwood
Cats v St Kilda
Hawks v Bulldogs
Melbourne
v Adelaide
North v Swans
Suns
v Essendon
Giants v Tigers
Port v Carlton
Dockers v Eagles

Round 23


It all comes down to the final round, if all the above happens then Carlton need to beat the Giants and Saints need to beat the Dockers. We beat Sydney, we make the finals and promptly get smashed by Port Adelaide in the first week.

Lions v Eagles
Carlton v Giants
Essendon v Collingwood
Cats v Melbourne
Tigers v Hawks
Saints
v Dockers
Bulldogs v Port
Sydney v Suns
Adelaide
v North
 
Last edited:

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,898
3,534
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Result number one goes our way - the Cats belted the Dockers tonight. Fremantle's percentage took a massive hit and is now down to 92.5% which obviously helps our cause. A Brisbane win over Richmond tomorrow night would be nice but the result/s we really need to go our way is Port Adelaide beating St Kilda on Saturday night and/or Adelaide beating West Coast on Sunday afternoon.

Above all else though, we want to beat the Bulldogs.
 

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Lord_Flashheart

Chicken Twisty Epicurean
Oct 28, 2009
10,576
18,618
The Whore Tree
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Coney Island Dockers
Result number one goes our way - the Cats belted the Dockers tonight. Fremantle's percentage took a massive hit and is now down to 92.5% which obviously helps our cause. A Brisbane win over Richmond tomorrow night would be nice but the result/s we really need to go our way is Port Adelaide beating St Kilda on Saturday night and/or Adelaide beating West Coast on Sunday afternoon.

Above all else though, we want to beat the Bulldogs.

 

Lord_Flashheart

Chicken Twisty Epicurean
Oct 28, 2009
10,576
18,618
The Whore Tree
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Coney Island Dockers
Result number one goes our way - the Cats belted the Dockers tonight. Fremantle's percentage took a massive hit and is now down to 92.5% which obviously helps our cause. A Brisbane win over Richmond tomorrow night would be nice but the result/s we really need to go our way is Port Adelaide beating St Kilda on Saturday night and/or Adelaide beating West Coast on Sunday afternoon.

Above all else though, we want to beat the Bulldogs.
If the Tigers beat Brisbane tonight, we need them to lose against either North or the Hawks which is much less likely
 

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,898
3,534
AFL Club
Gold Coast
they looked flat footed. They’re welcome to bring that same energy in a few weeks time
Looks like you might have to update this thread soon Lord_Flashheart because it would appear we're playing Brisbane next week. It's a good time to play the Lions.

West Coast have lost Josh Kennedy for their clash with Adelaide this afternoon and the Crows will welcome back Tex Walker so it's entirely possible Adelaide will beat the Weagles and keep that 7th position on the ladder open for multiple clubs. A Swans victory over GWS later tonight would be nice too. Either way, we're very likely to still be just two wins behind 8th place with five rounds to go at the end of this round.
 

Lord_Flashheart

Chicken Twisty Epicurean
Oct 28, 2009
10,576
18,618
The Whore Tree
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Coney Island Dockers
OP updated with results from Rd 18

Richmond winning did not help our cause at all.

We now need to win every game to make it or Richmond to lose to either Hawthorn or North Melbourne (and have to lose to the Giants, Cats and Dockers)
 

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,898
3,534
AFL Club
Gold Coast
OP games changed to reflect Covid adjustments
If all results in this round are consistent with the ladder except for the Giants beating Essendon, then we have a chance to end the round just 6 points behind 8th place. We're getting closer...

Just need to beat Brisbane tomorrow and we can continue to dream :p Who would have thought a round 19 QClash victory would place us just one win behind the top 8! That will be temporary but as I already pointed out, it's entirely possible we end the round just 6 points behind 8th with 4 more games to go in the season.

I also think it's pretty unlikely we'll play Melbourne next week. At least not in Darwin, but I'm thinking our Essendon fixture may be brought forward considering the Bombers are still based in Queensland at the moment and the AFL are really running out of options for uncomplicated games in this COVID affected environment.
 

GC2015

Club Legend
May 27, 2013
2,898
3,534
AFL Club
Gold Coast
All other results are falling the way we would have liked them to and GWS are currently leading Essendon.

After watching both games live and on TV replay, I feel like our last two games have been winnable and the disappointing thing is that if we had won both games then we'd likely be just two points behind GWS in 8th. That's how it goes though. If you don't take your chances when they present themselves, you'll fall behind pretty quickly. A win over Melbourne next week gives us a heartbeat but it's obviously extremely unlikely now.
 

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Lord_Flashheart

Chicken Twisty Epicurean
Oct 28, 2009
10,576
18,618
The Whore Tree
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Coney Island Dockers
Well what a disappointing second half of the game that was.

Oddly, we still have a pathway to finals. Lose this week and we are done and the best we can hope for is about 12th spot.
 

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