Prediction The Run Home - Final Five

Remove this Banner Ad

we should beat collingwood but is definitely not a gimme. when we were in hot form last year, the pies managed to make it a really contested game and kept us to only 97 points. they have played some ordinary football but is bound to click one game. levi greenwood will definitely go to sloane. need to watch out for treloar, elliot, de goey and obviously pendebury if he recovers.

Collingwood are currently 14th which makes it a gimme.

Of course they could ambush us, but our average game should be enough to see off their best.
 

Hobbes

Club Legend
Jul 20, 2006
1,846
2,551
Oxfordshire, UK
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg
I make it:

(calling anything over 70% as a win)

ADELAIDE:

Collingwood: win
Port Adelaide: 60/40
Essendon: 50/50
Sydney: 55/45
West Coast: 65/35

Wins: 13
Range 14-18
Expectation 16-17
Average: 16.3

GWS

Richmond: 55/45
Fremantle: Win
Melbourne: 60/40
Bulldogs: 65/35
West Coast: Win
Geelong: 45/55

Wins: 11
Range: 13-17
Expectation: 15-16
Average: 15.25

Geelong

Carlton: Win
Sydney: 40/60
Richmond: 60/40
Collingwood: 65/35
GWS: 55/45

Wins: 10.5
Range: 11.5-15.5
Expectation: 13.5-14.5
Average: 13.7

Port Adelaide

St Kilda: Win
Adelaide: 40/60
Collingwood: Win
Bulldogs: 65/35
Gold Coast: Win

Wins: 10
Range: 13-15
Expectation: 14
Average: 14.05

Sydney

Hawthorn: 60/40
Geelong: 60/40
Fremantle: Win
Adelaide: 45/55
Carlton: Win

Wins: 10
Range: 12-15
Expectation: 13-14
Average: 13.65

Melbourne

North: Win
GWS: 40/60
St Kilda: 60/40
Brisbane: Win
Collingwood: 60/40

Wins: 10
Range: 12-15
Expectation: 13-14
Average: 13.6

Richmond

GWS: 45/55
Gold Coast: 70/30
Hawthorn: 40/60
Geelong: 40/60
Fremantle: 65/35
St Kilda: 55/45

Wins: 9
Range: 9-15
Expectation: 11-13
Average: 12.15

Essendon

Bulldogs: Win
Carlton: Win
Adelaide: 50/50
Gold Coast: Win
Fremantle: Win

Wins: 9
Range: 13-14
Expectation: 13-14
Average: 13.5

West Coast

Collingwood: 40/60
Brisbane: Win
St Kilda: 40/60
Carlton: 70/30
GWS: Loss
Adelaide: 35/65

Wins: 9
Range: 10-14
Expectation: 11-12
Average: 11.85

Bulldogs

Essendon: Loss
Brisbane: 55/45
GWS: 35/65
Port: 35/65
Hawthorn: Loss

Wins: 9
Range: 9-12
Expectation: 10
Average: 10.25

St Kilda

Port Adelaide: Loss
West Coast: 60/40
Melbourne: 40/60
North: 70/30
Richmond: 45/55

Wins: 9
Range: 9-13
Expectation: 11-12
Average: 11.15

Ladder - Averages

Adelaide 16.3
GWS 15.25
Port Adelaide 14.05
Geelong 13.7
Sydney 13.65
Melbourne 13.6
Essendon 13.5
Richmond 12.15
West Coast 11.85
St Kilda 11.15
Bulldogs 10.25

Ladder - Expectation

Adelaide 16-17
GWS 15-16
Geelong 13.5-14.5
Port Adelaide 14
Sydney 13-14
Melbourne 13-14
Essendon 13-14
Richmond 11-13
West Coast 11-12
St Kilda 11-12
Bulldogs 10-11


I think that seven teams are a lock (down to Essendon - don't worry about their hot form, check the remaining fixture) and the 8th spot is up for grabs - probably Richmond or West Coast.
 
Sep 19, 2007
11,102
13,088
The Pub
AFL Club
Adelaide
Crows, Dees or Swans for the flag for mine. Love the Dees list and reckon they're a huge smokey.

Watching the Dees again yesterday, I don't think they're there this year. They've got a gun midfield no doubt and on their day will trouble the best, but the lack the resilience in their structures and consistency in performance. The reason imo they looked so good early yesterday was Port were so woeful and when Port finally put some pressure on, their structures broke down easily and they struggled to find avenues to score. To win a premiership you need to be able to play 3-4 high quality games in a row against quality opposition, I can't see them doing that.

By the same token Port have no hope, still haven't beaten anyone of note.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

CrowBloke

Solum stulti se excusant!
May 14, 2017
11,177
12,361
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
West Adelaide
I'm sorry but why is everyone talking up Sydney as the best side right now.
The teams they've beaten are - Brisbane (18th), North Melbourne (17th), St Kilda (10th), Bulldogs (11th), Richmond (7th) (By a measly 9 points), Essendon (8th) (By 1 Point), Melbourne (6th), Gold Coast (15th), GWS (3rd)
I was thinking along similar lines, but Sydney are oozing positive team energy right now. Winning 10 from 11 is really good form and they have not dropped games in that time against the first 4 teams you mention.
Just like us, they can only beat whomever shows up. With 5 games left, dropping one of those pre-finals could sharpen us up (say, vs Essendon).
Being a game + % clear going into the Weagles game sounds like an ideal situation, but I'd prefer another MUST-win-away game to end the season and finish Top 2. All of the finals games will be testing, must-win games.
Tbh, if the Crows have a 7-day break and turn up to play like last Friday, they'll beat anyone, including Sydney, GWS, or Geelong.
 

jaytex

Club Legend
Mar 7, 2015
1,796
5,545
AFL Club
Adelaide
Wrote this three weeks ago.

Screenshot_20170723-092525.png


End thread :D
 
Feb 3, 2004
17,999
24,204
in a happy place
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
panthers, ukraine & broncos
We were on fire earlier this year and the margin flattered us

It will be hostile and we will be up against it IMO

Daniher one of only forwards that can trouble Talia and they have plenty of speed to take us on and defend us

Will be a cracker I reckon

We played Hartigan on Daniher earlier in the year and he only kicked 2 goals 2. He kicked 4 goals 1 last year and was scoreless in 2015. We also now have seen that Keath could be used as an option. Keath is tall, incredibly quick and agile, and would match up quite well on Joe I think. For Essendon, the key is denying them the centre corridor as much as possible and that is one thing that we have been really good at defending this year overall.
 
Sep 28, 2014
23,097
30,882
AFL Club
Adelaide
We played Hartigan on Daniher earlier in the year and he only kicked 2 goals 2. He kicked 4 goals 1 last year and was scoreless in 2015. We also now have seen that Keath could be used as an option. Keath is tall, incredibly quick and agile, and would match up quite well on Joe I think. For Essendon, the key is denying them the centre corridor as much as possible and that is one thing that we have been really good at defending this year overall.
All good

Daniher has come on significantly this year and an inexperienced Keath , that would be a big test
But as you say it's all about controlling and slowing fast ball movement , that's why we need to turn up from start
 

pirate bob

Cancelled
Jul 11, 2017
1,635
1,406
AFL Club
Adelaide
We were on fire earlier this year and the margin flattered us

It will be hostile and we will be up against it IMO

Daniher one of only forwards that can trouble Talia and they have plenty of speed to take us on and defend us

Will be a cracker I reckon
Talia to Hooker. Keath to Daniher ..
 
Sep 7, 2005
22,563
19,697
SA
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
LA Rams, UCLA Bruins
I knew I wasn't sold on port and today showed exactly that they might even drop St Kilda next week

Saints cannot play AO. They'll crumble. But i'll be there in a corporate box cheering them massively on Saturday!

the essendon game will be all about the start especially on a fast deck at etihad and that both teams dont play a lockdown gamestyle. essendon are genuine fast starters and we could be chasing tail if they get an early lead. plenty of weapons.

Like the fast start they got against us lats time? Oh wait, we kicked 9 goals in the 1st Q ;)
 

Simmo28

Premiership Player
Apr 23, 2014
3,610
2,964
Sydney, Australia
AFL Club
Adelaide
Every Tealster is excited after seeing us fade out last n8ght due to the "Darwin effect".

If they are a genuine top four team they will smash the Dees.


FWIW I think they will.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

What was ports excuse for a quarter and a half fade out at START of their match against Melbourne? :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Dec 29, 2000
23,402
20,544
AFL Club
Adelaide
Every Tealster is excited after seeing us fade out last n8ght due to the "Darwin effect".

If they are a genuine top four team they will smash the Dees.


FWIW I think they will.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

Their draw this year is softer than our 2012 draw and that is saying something. Should be a lock for top 4 but will need to win 4 of their 5 to guarantee it.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

I want Richmond to finish 4th and us to finish 1st, because we'd absolutely obliterate Richmond at AO in a final

Destroying a black and yellow team in the finals----music to my ears

Does a soul good
 
Sep 7, 2005
22,563
19,697
SA
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
LA Rams, UCLA Bruins
I'd say we can only afford to lose 1 of our next 5 games

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

We'll be at least 1 game and a huge chunk of % ahead of GWS if they win today. Technically we can drop 2 more games and still be top 2

If GWS lose today, we'll be 2 games and % ahead of GWS and Richmond who would both be on 44. Meaning we could drop 3 games and still finish top 2

It's a great place to be with 5 games left. But let's not * it up
 
Sep 7, 2005
22,563
19,697
SA
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
LA Rams, UCLA Bruins
2 more wins takes us to 60 points. And all but guarantees us top 4 due to our far superior % on every team besides the flat trackers down the road.

The most points these teams:

Port
Melbourne
Sydney

can finish on from here is 60.

If Richmond lose today, the most they could end up would be 60 as well. A Richmond win today would increase our top 2 chances as GWS would be 2 games plus % behind us in 3rd with a game vs the 2nd placed Geelong to come.

A GWS win today would increase our top 4 chances to near a lock (need those 2 wins)
 
Dec 18, 2007
7,749
13,758
Arcadia
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Redbacks
2 more wins takes us to 60 points. And all but guarantees us top 4 due to our far superior % on every team besides the flat trackers down the road.

The most points these teams:

Port
Melbourne
Sydney

can finish on from here is 60.

If Richmond lose today, the most they could end up would be 60 as well. A Richmond win today would increase our top 2 chances as GWS would be 2 games plus % behind us in 3rd with a game vs the 2nd placed Geelong to come.

A GWS win today would increase our top 4 chances to near a lock (need those 2 wins)

Yep so the pessimists who think we are shaky for top 4 can barrack for GWS, those that think we are a shot at top 2 can barrack for the tiges.
 

BrissyCrow

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2011
4,406
4,639
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg & Most Other Tiger Teams
We'll be at least 1 game and a huge chunk of % ahead of GWS if they win today. Technically we can drop 2 more games and still be top 2

If GWS lose today, we'll be 2 games and % ahead of GWS and Richmond who would both be on 44. Meaning we could drop 3 games and still finish top 2

It's a great place to be with 5 games left. But let's not **** it up
That's what my numbers showed me. I worked out that if we beat the Pies this week and lost the last 5 games we would finish 6th but if we won only one of the last five games we could still finish top two. So yes provided we win 2 of our remaining games we can be top two.
 

PCORF

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 3, 2007
5,962
2,279
AFL Club
Adelaide
For me one week at a time. Need 2 wins minimum, should be able to win 3 or 4. No doubt the game against Sydney is the toughest. They are on fire right now.
 
May 26, 2013
22,058
31,324
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool FC
Given our current position, this is a great run home. Pretty much every game is a finals-type game. Collingwood excepted they're all finalists or wannabe finalists, and Collingwood is on the MCG, so that's excellent.

We don't need to win them all, but we will sure as heck know how we're travelling come the pre-finals bye week.

And we will be certainly nicely tuned for the finals matches - no soft wins that would give us false belief in our ability.
 
Back