Prediction The Run Home - Final Five

[PCORF]

Wrong. We're two games plus percentage ahead. So, if we win only 2/5 and the oppo win 5/5, we slip out of top two.

I still think we can win an away QF from 3rd spot even if it is against Geelong who have absolutely owned us for years on their home ground. That is why finishing in the top 4 is so important, win the QF and you get a home PF. But not getting too carried away, got 5 more games, need 2 wins minimum and cannot afford to take Collingwood lightly this weekend as they will be just as desperate to win as us.

 

[relapse]

Odds are 2 wins should be enough to hold a top 2 spot, but three would guarantee it.




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[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Odds are 2 wins should be enough to hold a top 2 spot, but three would guarantee it.

Yep, 2 wins in our last 5 would be good enough unless Geelong and GWS both won every single game (apart from when they play each other).

 

[VKCrow]

Sydney game I reckon will he massive.
Bigger than geelong.

 

[TrainRoo32]

Wrote this three weeks ago.

View attachment 395220

End thread

Get this man a beer

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Get this man a beer

So far, so good.

 

[TrainRoo32]

So far, so good.

Yeh that ******* showdown prediction is disappointing..... 5 in a row would destroy the swampies

 

[Roovolution]

Essendon at Etihad is the one I'm most worried about.

 

[jaytex]

Get this man a beer

not a man - but i'll absolutely take the beer

 

[TrainRoo32]

not a man - but i'll absolutely take the beer

Sorry lol

 

[Golumless]

I think we will go 3-2 in the run home maybe even 2-3... its a very tough run home.
we need to beat the swans... I don't want to finish top and have to play them!!

Definitely, Swans are the worst case match up now for a qualifying final.

 

[GreyCrow]

Melbourne and Richmond fans might have a say and I havent looked at their draws but in the interest of letting others have a go I have left them out

After the weekend I thought I would take a look at how both of these teams look .

I have already looked at Melbourne but will reproduce here again

Melbourne 7th on 40 points with %107
v Kangaroos in Tassie/Blundstone ??
v Giants Manuka ??
v Saints MCG win
v Lions MCG win
V Magpies MCG win

Should win 3 and possibly 4. Unlikely to win all 5 but possible. Gets them 52/60 points. % will be their enemy

Richmond 4th on 44 points with 108%
v Gold Coast Metricon ??
v Hawthorn MCG ??
v Geelong Simounds Loss
v Carlton Etihad win
v St Kilda MCG ??

Richmonds big problem is assessing their form. The most hot and cold team in the 8. Like Melbourne their % will hurt them and there isnt many opportunities to make some big gains. As you can see a lot of unknown games to predict. They should beat Gold Coast and St Kilda as well as Carlton. So give them 3 wins. Takes them to 56 but tbh they could be 48 after Round 23.

If we give Sydney 3 wins then Sydney will be above them if they drop too many. Melbourne could be the 4th placed team after Round 23

 

[SC26]

Sydney will have one bad game before the finals. Just have a feeling they will.

 

[davos44]

It's just dawned on me we are two games and percentage clear of 3rd spot.

Unbelievable. We have to make a GF from here, no excuses.

Is that you, Kane?

 

[Elite Crow]

Is that you, Kane?

Or is Kane me?

When you haven't made a GF for 20 years and you're leading like we are, to not make the GF at least would be a disaster.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Is that you, Kane?

I would be disappointed to miss playing a Grand Final this year.

Hopefully round 23 last year still burns deep.

 

[GreyCrow]

I would be disappointed to miss playing a Grand Final this year.

Hopefully round 23 last year still burns deep.

This is why I hope the ''unsociable'' is a permanent fixture, at least for the rest of the year. I hope it is a statement of intent from the group that no backward step will be taken

 

[Shaz2012]

Sydney will have one bad game before the finals. Just have a feeling they will.

I got a feeling the Hawks will beat them this week. I think we will beat them too because its at home but I dont think we would beat them at the SCG or the Cats at Skilled. We need to get top 2 and win both home finals. Then I think we can give any team a run for their money at the G.

Showdown is the one that worries me the most. I also think that WCE away is a very loseable game. They play that ground very well and are a different beast at home.

I think we can beat the bombers too. They dont play a game style that troubles us too much.

 

[SugarShane]

This is why I hope the ''unsociable'' is a permanent fixture, at least for the rest of the year. I hope it is a statement of intent from the group that no backward step will be taken

Yep. Let's hope the mongrel is just the start of a no holds barred, all out assault on that flag. It's a good time to start ramping it up.

 

[Elite Crow]

This is why I hope the ''unsociable'' is a permanent fixture, at least for the rest of the year. I hope it is a statement of intent from the group that no backward step will be taken

We've been building this over the last few weeks. Our tackle count is up and the pressure on the opposition has increased.

There really is no excuse for this to drop off, except for complacency.

It's up to the coaches, the leaders and the clubs desire to ******* finally win something to ensure it doesn't stop.

 

[Rabman]

I'm actually really confident will go all the way this year, the atmosphere on Friday night was electric and will be replicated with the showdown and the sydney game to come. Think the Essendon game is the only game will most likely drop, west coast will most likely be out of finals contention by the last game of the season and have dropped games and Subiaco this year. Sydney for me will burn out, wouldn't be surprised if they lost friday night, still have to go to Kardina and play us at AO. We have Ports measure at the moment and think will obtain them again. 50,000 plus at the AO for 2 finals games would be create an incredible atmosphere that our players will thrive off, reckon it played a part in the geelong game on friday.

 

[Roovolution]

Finish top 2 and I concur about the home crowd giving us an extra leg and getting us to the Grand Final.

 

[CrowBloke]

Personally I think we can take our game to an even higher level. We won without Tex, Jenkins, McGovern and Betts having a huge impact on the game and Lever wasn't playing. If those players increase their output leading into finals we could become unstoppable. The stop Sloane stop the Crows is a myth. It worked in a way early on because our midfield as a whole weren't performing.

VERY good post overall. I agree --- especially the parts in bold italics --- winning 8 in a row now is a strong possibility if the players you mentioned lift. However, on any given day, someone (or a few) will get beaten. The best thing about the limited output of Tex, Jenkins (was crook), McGovern and Betts (now appendix, probably affected his game last Friday) was that other players like Douglas, Kelly and Knight picked up the slack and we smashed them at the clearances. We won't get 7 goals from Douglas and Sloane very often, but we have multiple options now.
Gonna be very hard to beat the Crows from here on in.

 

[davos44]

Or is Kane me?

When you haven't made a GF for 20 years and you're leading like we are, to not make the GF at least would be a disaster.

Haha, the first thing he said on Footy SA was exactly what you wrote lol. It would be an absolute disaster if we didn't make the Grand Final, but we do have a knack of "disasters" this century

 

[CrowBloke]

not a man - but i'll absolutely take the beer

Jaytex, you were uncannily prescient in that prediction, well, so far!
Does your crystal ball foresee any possible glitches eg vs Essendon at Etihad (where they play best).
If our blokes bring what they showed last Friday night every game, for eight games ==> we go top. Tough ask, but that's what Premiers do, plus the rest of the Comp. would hate for us to win this year's Flag, especially the Vics. All the more reason to stick it up'em.