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Can someone tell me who I'm supporting this weekend for this 3% chance?
Prediction The run home - how many do we win?
- Thread starter philohk
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Adelaide and Carlton (the latter is so unlikely I wouldn't bother).
The best results would be
Adelaide to keep their lead.
Carlton for a comeback againt WC.
Pies beat Port.
Melb beat saints. (Edit, the result that is best for us here depends a lot on future results, depending on how Melb or Saints go in future weeks would dictate which winner is best for us tomorrow).
We missed the ideal Freo beating Sydney, but if the rest of those happen we should have considerably better than 3% chance (Swampy could give an estimate using his probability based simulation). I think the only must at this stage is probably Adelaide getting up tonight, but the others might avoid relying on some very long shots in future weeks.
The big problems (other than winning our next 3) seems to be that we either need Freo or GC to upset Bombers, or the winner of Melbourne vs Saints to drop both their final two round games, so Melbourne dropping both Pies and Lions games, or Saints dropping both Tigers and North (which sounds to me like we'd probably like Saints to beat Melbourne tomorrow, as Melbourne seems to need two upsets to lose both games, but Saints only need one). The most likely outcome seems to be that we finish 9th if we win the rest, which would be a pity, but I probably would have taken 9th when we were sitting 17th.
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Carlton hit the front , but couldn't hold the lead. I don't think that game was critical, as WC will have to win against either GWS or Crows to finish above us if we win the rest, although Adelaide is in Perth, so that is is certainly possible, but would have to play a good deal better than they did against Carlton to trouble Adelaide.
Decent results for us so far this round. Simulation suggests we should be cheering Melbourne vs the Saints.. apparently because the Dees have a pretty easy last two rounds (Brisbane at home, Collingwood) so they'll likely make finals regardless of this weeks' result.
Unfortunately a lot seems to be riding on the Ess vs GC game at Metricon next week. Very narrow path to finals if Bombres win that. Let's hope Ablett gets up.
Unfortunately a lot seems to be riding on the Ess vs GC game at Metricon next week. Very narrow path to finals if Bombres win that. Let's hope Ablett gets up.
Interesting that the simulation prefers Melbourne, I liked the idea of Melbourne losing which would mean we were hoping Saints to drop both Richmond and North, which seemed more likely than Melbourne losing to both Brisbane and Collingwood. If Melbourne win and beat Brisbane, we are then relying on Bombers to lose to either Freo or GC which seems unlikely. Having Saints beat Melbourne and then Saints losing to Tigers and North and not having to worry about the Bomber's losing to one of those two seemed better to me, but I guess the simulation doesn't lie. What does your simulation say about our chances from the current set of known results (assuming we keep winning)?
We really need Port to get up against Doggies too (or Port to fall in a heap and lose to pies, dogs and suns). Despite most results going our way so far, seems that 9th is the most realistic best case scenario, although 7th is still a possible , but unrealistic best case. There are some upsets that could go against us too, such as WC possibly getting up at home against Crows. 9th would at least mean we basically swapped pick 10 for pick 10 with Saints (ignoring the second round swaps).
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- #257
Agree about Melbourne. If they have to lose two you'd think it's today and last round vs Collingwood, not next week vs Brisbane. Interestingly, if the Pies do upset Port today and bring them within range of us, it means they aren't out of the running themselves - would need to beat a weakened Geelong and a patchy Melbourne. Both possible. Still a lot of permutations but the probabilities collapse a bit more with each game.
Also, those Carlton fails two weeks in a row - imagine actually supporting them.
Yep absolutely, and they have a better %. Gotta remember they were 51 points up against Adelaide, so they're still capable of playing good footy.
As for today, as far as I'm concerned we 100% need Saints to win. Essendon will make the 8, so we need Melbourne to lose 2 of the next 3 - and agreed it's more likely today then against Brisbane.
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Man, the fat lady is getting agro. She keeps warming up her pipes but the Hawks won't let her take the stage.
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With yesterday's successful J-BOMB test, there are some critical results to come today that will determine our final outcome.
As such, we have now officially gone to DEFJOM-3 (a heightened state of jaeger alert). Stay tuned for more info on this crucial state of events as finals approach.
As such, we have now officially gone to DEFJOM-3 (a heightened state of jaeger alert). Stay tuned for more info on this crucial state of events as finals approach.
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Assuming we win all remaining games we're at 7%.
Next week we need:
Port to beat Bulldogs (@ Mars)
GWS to beat WCE (@ Spotless)
GC to beat Ess (@ Metricon)
Following week we need
Adelaide to beat WCE (@ Subiaco)
Richmond to beat St K (@ MCG)
All are higher ranked on the ladder with the exception of GC beating Essendon.
Next week we need:
Port to beat Bulldogs (@ Mars)
GWS to beat WCE (@ Spotless)
GC to beat Ess (@ Metricon)
Following week we need
Adelaide to beat WCE (@ Subiaco)
Richmond to beat St K (@ MCG)
All are higher ranked on the ladder with the exception of GC beating Essendon.
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Not actually without a chance of those results falling our way.
If Ablett's available next week then GC are a chance. Brisbane beating Melbourne is another option to keep the season alive. Both would be upsets, but that's how the season has played out.
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Gold Coast couldn't beat an egg at the moment.
So you saying there's a chance? Double negative hurts my brain.
they are a different side with the son of god running around
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I'm saying its not out of the possibility that a chance exists that there is a likelyhood that those results go our way (all other things being equal in the grand scheme of things)
Alternatively if GC lose to Essendon, Essendon would need to lose to Freo in the final week.
If Essendon win against both GC and Freo (seems likely) then we need Melbourne to lose against both Brisbane and Pies.
Also if Saints lose to North next week, then it doesn't matter if they win or not against Richmond.
If Bulldogs beat port then we need both Melbourne to lose the rest, AND bombers to lose one of GC, Freo.
The worst case result for us is any win to WC, as if they win one of Crows or GWS, then the only we can make it is by:
- Port beating bulldogs
- Melbourne losing to both Brisbane and Pies
- Bombers losing to one of Freo or GC.
Having those all fall our way seems very unlikely, so WC losing both games is almost a must.
Long odds to make it and 7% chance seems about right. To simplify it.
We need to win both our last games.
Essendon and St Kilda lose at least one each.
West Coast and Bulldogs must lose both of their last games.
Geez if only we had another one second in that GWS game with Burton's punch over for the behind.
We need to win both our last games.
Essendon and St Kilda lose at least one each.
West Coast and Bulldogs must lose both of their last games.
Geez if only we had another one second in that GWS game with Burton's punch over for the behind.
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Brisbane and Giants next weekend. Go Fages! Go Cameron!
Former Assistant Coach plan implementation phase - commence
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Isn't it just Dees and WC to lose both games and we win both?
Nah with our percentage those extra 2 points were meaningless. Smith keeping his head against Geelong on the other hand...
The real damage was done earlier in the season off course - the Gold Coast disasters and the Collingwood capitulation in particular.
If we win our last 2 games, we'll be on 46 points.
If the Dees and Eagles lose both, they'll both remain on 44 points. Unlikely The Dees will drop 2 games but possible that the Eagles will. We will need the Dogs to lose to Port this weekend otherwise we're out. Of course we will have to beat them last round.
The Saints and Bombers are currently on 40 points so if they win both they'll be on 48 so we are out. If they each drop one and stay at 44 we have a chance. The Bombers could most likely ruin it for us.
This weekend rd 22
GWS D Eagles 70/30
Brisbane D Melbourne 20/80
Port D Dogs 50/50
Sun's D Bombers 40/60 (need Ablett to play)
Roo's D Saints 40/60
Sun's, GWS and Port must win. Better if the Saints lost but doesn't matter so much this round. Bears won't beat the Dees so they won't count as we can realistically only chase 8th spot.
Rd 23
Hawks D Dogs 55/45
Pies D Dees 35/65
Dockers D Bombers 20/80
Crows D Eagles 65/35
Richmond D Saints 75/25
If GC don't beat Essendon, then I can't see them losing to Freo so well be out. Crows must beat Eagle's and Richmond will end the Saints run.
So Eagles, Dogs must lose both and Bombers and Saints must lose at least one.
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