Prediction The Run Home - How Many Wins?

How many more games do we win?

  • 1

    Votes: 1 1.3%
  • 2

    Votes: 13 16.9%
  • 3

    Votes: 34 44.2%
  • 4

    Votes: 17 22.1%
  • 5

    Votes: 12 15.6%

  • Total voters
    77

moginie

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2008
7,512
8,208
Hindmarsh
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Reckon we need to have managed expecations. We are good enough to beat anyone on our day but in reality we are more likely to go 1-4 than 4-1 on the run home.
As I've said before in this thread, I reckon we'll win two of our last 5. Any more is a bonus. But we showed at this time last year that we can confound the critics and play enjoyable football. We're doing the same at the moment.
 

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Sixpence

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2009
5,351
6,720
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If we can beat Geelong by 4 goals, we're capable of beating Bris in Tassie and North and Gold Coast at Marvel. Beating GWS will depend on which GWS shows up ie. the good one or the s**t one. If it's the s**t one or anything below the good one, we have a chance. West Coast is Perth is the one I really can't see us winning.

Read an article yesterday that we're still mathematically in the hunt for top 4. Need to win all our games plus a few upsets (ie the lower placed team wins):
Carlton beating Adelaide (Possible)
Freo beating Essendon in Freo (Possible)
Bulldogs beating GWS (Unlikely but possible on which GWS team turns up)
Gold Coast beating GWS (Not very likely)

I think I may have missed something as when I do the predictor, it only gets us to 5th, two games and percentage off top 4. Maybe the article missed a few things. Even with 5th, everything would need to fall our way. Even Richmond beating Collingwood tomorrow ruins this scenario.
 

philohk

on holiday by mistake
Jun 18, 2008
1,277
716
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If we can beat Geelong by 4 goals, we're capable of beating Bris in Tassie and North and Gold Coast at Marvel. Beating GWS will depend on which GWS shows up ie. the good one or the s**t one. If it's the s**t one or anything below the good one, we have a chance. West Coast is Perth is the one I really can't see us winning.

Read an article yesterday that we're still mathematically in the hunt for top 4. Need to win all our games plus a few upsets (ie the lower placed team wins):
Carlton beating Adelaide (Possible)
Freo beating Essendon in Freo (Possible)
Bulldogs beating GWS (Unlikely but possible on which GWS team turns up)
Gold Coast beating GWS (Not very likely)

I think I may have missed something as when I do the predictor, it only gets us to 5th, two games and percentage off top 4. Maybe the article missed a few things. Even with 5th, everything would need to fall our way. Even Richmond beating Collingwood tomorrow ruins this scenario.
I just did it and got us in. Basically we need to win and when the teams above us play each other we'll usually need the lower-placed one to win.
 

Carl Spackler

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2018
1,077
2,351
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If we can beat Geelong by 4 goals, we're capable of beating Bris in Tassie and North and Gold Coast at Marvel. Beating GWS will depend on which GWS shows up ie. the good one or the s**t one. If it's the s**t one or anything below the good one, we have a chance. West Coast is Perth is the one I really can't see us winning.

Read an article yesterday that we're still mathematically in the hunt for top 4. Need to win all our games plus a few upsets (ie the lower placed team wins):
Carlton beating Adelaide (Possible)
Freo beating Essendon in Freo (Possible)
Bulldogs beating GWS (Unlikely but possible on which GWS team turns up)
Gold Coast beating GWS (Not very likely)

I think I may have missed something as when I do the predictor, it only gets us to 5th, two games and percentage off top 4. Maybe the article missed a few things. Even with 5th, everything would need to fall our way. Even Richmond beating Collingwood tomorrow ruins this scenario.
I believe that Brisbane and North will be our two really hard remaining games where we are facing best available players. I expect both GWS and west coast will be resting any niggling injuries. GCS will be in experiment mode.

We won’t have the luxury of resting hurt players (Gunners and Birch getting any capacity we have there) but at least we’ll have the week before the finals to rub out sore muscles and rest aching joints.

So my biggest worries are the Lions and Kangas. They will be playing to win. Everyone else will either be experimenting or playing not to get injured.

We have a good shot. Will be buggered when the finals start but we can be there.
 

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Tomohawks

Team Captain
Aug 30, 2009
534
353
Victoria
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Storm, Utah Jazz, West Ham
With finals realistically blown, I hope only the one against GC as we need to be picking inside the top 8 if we our keep our pick because with the GC a chance of getting a priority pick and the top two picks and now Kemp having done his knee we need to be picking in the top 8 this year as I believe it drops away after that.
 

HODGEYROAD

Brownlow Medallist
May 10, 2007
14,619
13,638
Bayswater
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal Fc Portland Trailblazers
We’ll beat the Suns, North is a 50/50 and losses to GWS and WCE away. So we’ll end 9-13 or 10-12 pending on this Friday nights result.
 

philohk

on holiday by mistake
Jun 18, 2008
1,277
716
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Massive difference in finals likelihood between 11 and 12 wins - about 25% vs 75% according to Matter of Stats. Could be a logjam of teams on 11 wins at this rate...

I think we can win at least two. GWS really depends which version turns up. WC on whether they have an eye on finals.
 

tommyk72

Premium Gold
Apr 10, 2007
3,002
3,494
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I'm hoping that last week was a comedown after a big match and big win against the cats. I reckon we'll bounce back stronger and better this week. Hopefully carry that through to the last few weeks and keep our destiny in our own hands.
 

vanders

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 19, 2001
13,559
14,460
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Hornets
Gunners and Breust have struggled this year, I hope Clarko sits them for the rest of the year and if Gunston needs surgery do it now. Give them and Stratts the rest of the year off to be cherry ripe for next season. Throw a few more kids in and see how they handle the jump up to AFL level for the last few weeks so they can get a taste.

Out: Birch Stratts Gunston Breust Nash
In: Scrim CJ Ross Walker Miles
 

Bedi

Premiership Player
Mar 8, 2014
3,400
3,599
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If we win our last 3 games, we're still a very good chance to make the 8. It's a big if, however!

With that said, I think we can beat GWS next week. Should beat Gold Coast, and then who knows against the Eagles.
 

Kanga Commando

Team Captain
Apr 10, 2017
586
964
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If we win our last 3 games, we're still a very good chance to make the 8. It's a big if, however!

With that said, I think we can beat GWS next week. Should beat Gold Coast, and then who knows against the Eagles.
Based on yesterday we will be lucky to win 1.
Play the kids.... Would love to have a look at Walker.
 

Agent Smith

BigFooty Oracle
May 7, 2011
7,752
16,919
The Matrix
AFL Club
Hawthorn
After an extensive analysis of the GWS game, I have come to the conclusion we can win every game for the rest of the year and take the premiership, as long as we can match the following criteria:
  1. Man the Worpedos. Ever since he stagnated, Worps has become one of the most important players in the competition. Here's hoping Floggard writes an article about how Mitch Lewis will never make it.
  2. Play C.J. Every time he's played for Hawthorn, we just look so much better. You know it makes sense.
  3. Make sure our competition for every game from now on is GWS. Sure, that's gonna be a little more tricky but they've become our bitches, even outdoing Collingwood.
  4. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Okay, it doesn't have to snow as much as just be extreme weather conditions. This is where our master coach shines. He made our players embrace the conditions and our mindset was brilliant. The other team's... not so much. So I'm gonna cover the oval next week with magma just to see how the boys handle the conditions. You'd think the Suns should cope better because... they're the Suns... but what's in a name?
/end extensive analysis.
 
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