Prediction The Run Home - How Many Wins?

[Hawker55]

This is probably heresy, but I’d rather we give a good show in all our games and miss Finals, and Hodgey win a Premiership with the Lions.

 

[Lawsy]

its the truth though mate. We played(and probably should've beaten) a somewhat depleted west coast at home, followed by a close win against collinwood missing jeremy howe, taylor adams, dayne beams, ben reid, tom langdon and jayden stephenson. Smashed freo in tassy. Last week we played a geelong team that had lost 2 from it's last 4, and not been in great form for a month. We won convincingly, but as I already said the Geelong we played is not the Geelong that got them to the top of the ladder. This brisbane outfit(assuming andrews plays) will be the most in-form and healthiest competitor we've faced. They've beaten the saints, dees, giants, power and north melbourne in the last 5 weeks, and have no major injury concerns

Not having a go at you mate, but if you run the rule of thumb over the teams Brisbane have played in the same vein as our last month then you could convincingly say the saints, dees and power are rubbish, the Giants out of form like the cats and give them a win at home against North with some dubious umpiring.

I'm hoping for continued cohesiveness in the middle and and equally balanced forward effort will see us right in it with Brisbane. The IP Hodge and Fagan took with them is significantly reduced with this team and setup so it is time to right the ship in Tassie this week.

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Right now, I think everyone is happy to get a few wins, but resigned to the fact that we can't make it this year.

Beat the Lions this weekend, and the lid will come flying off !!!!

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

This is probably heresy, but I’d rather we give a good show in all our games and miss Finals, and Hodgey win a Premiership with the Lions.

 

[moginie]

I've gone for 2. Gold Coast is a given and one of North or GWS. I don't think that we'll beat both of them.

Good signs for next year though!

 

[flinchfree]

all of them

This, but you say it with emphasis.

ALL OF THEM.

 

[PhatHQ]

Every game is winnable.

Get over the lions & the rumblings will start. The top 8 & the AFL in general would be pretty worried about the Hawks making the finals because we have shown we have the capacity to do some damage.

I’d be stoked if we sneak into the finals but not bummed if we miss with the year that we’ve had with injury, poor form from players & costly losses.
We could be sitting comfortably in 4th if we didn’t roll over against the Dogs, Saints & Dees... WC was a missed opportunity.
Geez... win all 4 of those & we are in second on the ladder wit a wet sail & the wind behind us going into September.

Would we have been doing our mid season extra training load early? Can any training watchers confirm that??
We have had much more run in the legs the last couple of weeks so I’d guys’d that Clarko has gone about setting his side, coaching defensive technique to the younger guys, heavier training load after the bye rounds & now happy to release the shackles.

You could bet that Clarko would love at least 2 of those games back.

I’m going with 4-5 & scraping in.

Glass half full

 

[KermitJagger]

Stuff it. I'm all in.

5 from 5.

 

[Bedi]

I think we'll win next week, but lose to North, GWS and West Coast. So 2 out of 5 for mine.

For finals, it has to be 4 out of 5. If that were to happen, not only would we play finals, but we'd become a genuine flag contender (as it'd mean we'd won 7 out of our last 8 games). Not going to happen, and nothing I've seen this year suggests we'll turn it around. The Collingwood game we could've easily lost, and wasn't thrilled one bit with the way we let Freo back in.

 

[bris tarangau]

I think we'll win next week, but lose to North, GWS and West Coast. So 2 out of 5 for mine.

For finals, it has to be 4 out of 5. If that were to happen, not only would we play finals, but we'd become a genuine flag contender (as it'd mean we'd won 7 out of our last 8 games). Not going to happen, and nothing I've seen this year suggests we'll turn it around. The Collingwood game we could've easily lost, and wasn't thrilled one bit with the way we let Freo back in.

True. And the tackling has been very poor! How can Hawkins waltz around multiple players and score goals? At least find a way to strip the ball from his hands!

 

[philohk]

Around this time of year I usually check out Tony Corke's blog. His latest post has some interesting stuff for nerds:

- We're a 0.1% chance of 4th, 0.5% chance of 5th, 1.3% chance of 6th, 3.9% chance of 7th and 10.5% chance of 8th, so 16.3% chance of finals.
- We're about a 13% chance of making finals with 11 wins, 35% chance with 11.5 wins and 55% with 12. He hasn't modelled 13 because he has a disturbing lack of faith I think that basically means we'd be in.

So a decent shot. Bring it on!

 

[Randy Campbell]

Nine wins to go.

 

[beta_condition]

I thought we would finish 10-12 4 weeks ago, beating Geelong pushes us to 11-11

 

[MinerBoy]

Where's the 9 option?

 

[MinerBoy]

But seriously, the Dogs and Saints injury and umpiring debacles are going to bite us hard.

 

[Falco131415]

True. And the tackling has been very poor! How can Hawkins waltz around multiple players and score goals? At least find a way to strip the ball from his hands!

Our tackling is one of our biggest deficiencies unfortunately!
Countless times over this season we have missed tackles & a lot of times when we lay a tackle the player isn't impended enough to either get a free or force a stoppage!
We really need to employ a full time tackle coach IE judo/ji jujitsu or similar to rectify this.

 

[bris tarangau]

Our tackling is one of our biggest deficiencies unfortunately!
Countless times over this season we have missed tackles & a lot of times when we lay a tackle the player isn't impended enough to either get a free or force a stoppage!
We really need to employ a full time tackle coach IE judo/ji jujitsu or similar to rectify this.

Cameron Smith from Melbourne Storms on a temporary basis will be a good start.

 

[MinerBoy]

Cameron Smith from Melbourne Storms on a temporary basis will be a good start.

The bloke in your avatar wasn't a bad exponent.

 

[Falco131415]

Cameron Smith from Melbourne Storms on a temporary basis will be a good start.

Yes & he's a mad hawks supporter too, or surely he'd have contacts!

 

[philohk]

But seriously, the Dogs and Saints injury and umpiring debacles are going to bite us hard.

And the Melbourne and WC games. Just reverse two of those four and we're sitting 10-7. Our best is decent but we're prone to lapses. Part of building a new team.

 

[essaynode]

I did the ladder predictor. I've got us coming in with 4 wins (the loss being against GWS at Canberra). My last three rounds I've tipped 7, 8 and 8 (so I think I've finally got a read on the season, don't ask me how I did during the rest of the year though). Let's see if I'm mostly right like the last three rounds.

 

[Argy]

But seriously, the Dogs and Saints injury and umpiring debacles are going to bite us hard.

I'm not too upset about those games. I don't think we're a genuine contender this year. Had we won those games we might not have put so much time into the young'uns.

 

[cryptor]

3 wins would be a good result. However we won't make finals with that unless Adelaide or Essendon drop a bunch.

Wouldn't be surprised with this season if we were to win all of them except dropping the one against Gold Coast.

 

[moginie]

3 wins would be a good result. However we won't make finals with that unless Adelaide or Essendon drop a bunch.

Wouldn't be surprised with this season if we were to win all of them except dropping the one against Gold Coast.

We need to win this weekend and the crows to lose and then it opens up for us. Their last 3 games are West Coast away, Collingwood at home and the Dogs in Ballarat. All 50/50 at best.

If we're good enough, we'll get there.

 

[Holy Rioli]

We need to win this weekend and the crows to lose and then it opens up for us. Their last 3 games are West Coast away, Collingwood at home and the Dogs in Ballarat. All 50/50 at best.

If we're good enough, we'll get there.

Reckon we need to have managed expecations. We are good enough to beat anyone on our day but in reality we are more likely to go 1-4 than 4-1 on the run home.