Prediction The run home

[Sketi]

Went to the QF at Adelaide in 2012. Boys blocked out the fans and just threw everything at the Crows. Low scoring but amazing game. We could do that again if needed.

Adelaide 2016 >>> Adelaide 2012

They had an insanely soft draw that year which is the only reason they finished so high. The way their forward line works together is easily the best in the comp and I would be keen to avoid them in Adelaide.

Any chance Cyril cops a week for that bump? Would be nice of Norf to take care of them this week.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Adelaide 2016 >>> Adelaide 2012

They had an insanely soft draw that year which is the only reason they finished so high. The way their forward line works together is easily the best in the comp and I would be keen to avoid them in Adelaide.

Any chance Cyril cops a week for that bump? Would be nice of Norf to take care of them this week.

It's Hawthorn...I'm still amazed that Cyril received a free kick for the Melbourne players kicking up a storm! I do feel Mitchell's action is worse though and won't be shocked if Cyril gets a fine.

Adelaide have been blessed by the injury gods though, have they even got more than 3 or 4 injured? We would have 10+ injured at times this year!

 

[The Swans Blog]

Adelaide was pretty good in 2012 and were a kick away from playing off against us. There was an argument that Hawthorn were "helped" through with dubious umpiring calls right at the death (3 seasons in a row really), not quite as obvious as Port Adelaide though.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Adelaide was pretty good in 2012 and were a kick away from playing off against us. There was an argument that Hawthorn were "helped" through with dubious umpiring calls right at the death (3 seasons in a row really), not quite as obvious as Port Adelaide though.

Hawthorn are always 'on the good side' with the umps that is for sure.

Tippett's final in 2012 against Hawthorn was one of the best finals from a KPF/ruck.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I certainly dont agree that Adelaide were s**t or had a dream run in 2012. They beat us early in the seasilon and almost made the GF, a lot better than Freo or many other teams.

They're dangerous this year and proved it in one of the best games this season against us.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I certainly dont agree that Adelaide were s**t or had a dream run in 2012. They beat us early in the seasilon and almost made the GF, a lot better than Freo or many other teams.

They're dangerous this year and proved it in one of the best games this season against us.

They were good in 2012, no doubt. I still feel they were better then though. They have been ultra lucky this year with having no injuries basically. What's the worst they ahve copped...Laird missed 4 weeks with a soft tissue issue, that's about it.

We played our worst half of the season basically against Adelaide, and we still almost won. I still maintain if we have to play Adelaide in Adelaide, I'd fancy our chances.

 

[caesar88]

The best sides are those that can adapt to a game no matter how it's being played. Take Fremantle under Ross Lyon. Yeah they've been pretty successful (before this year) because their defensive zoning has shut down most teams. But whenever they've come up in a fast, free-flowing game (such as that of Hawthorn) they have struggled imperially.

Adelaide are similar, but in the opposite way to Freo. They love a fast, attacking game where they have the corridor and wing pretty much entirely to themselves, and they're extremely damaging when given the time to create their passages of play. But as we saw against Geelong and a couple of other times, when the going gets tough, the tough get going. They don't have a plan B for when the game becomes a slog and they can't spend entire games in their forward half.

Finals games are often about who can do best in tight contests where things aren't always going your way. It's about players flexibility and coaching flexibility. You have to be prepared to defend and go long stretches of the game without scoring a goal, or having no momentum if you DO score a goal. In other words, they aren't cake-walks, which are what sides like Adelaide look best in.

Assuming 100 points is the standard for if you've had a fair bit go your way, if you've scored under 100, it's been a tough game. It's always difficult to kick big scores in finals games.

Adelaide have had only five games this year where they've not scored over 100 points. And you guessed it, in three of those games, they lost. Their success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games is 40%.

GWS have had ten games this year where they've scored under 100 points. They lost five of those games. Their success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games is 50%.

Geelong have had ten games this year where they've scored under 100 points. They also have a success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games of 50%.

The Bulldogs have had thirteen games under 100 points this year. They've won seven of those for a 'non-cakewalk' success rate of just over 53%.

Hawthorn have had twelve games where they've scored under 100 points. They've won eight, which, correct me if I'm wrong, gives them a success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games of 66%.

The Swans have had twelve games this year where we've scored under 100 points. We have won nine of those games. Our success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games is 75%.

It's all good and well to be kicking huge scores and demolishing teams off the park. We've done that a handful of times this year, which is nice. But even better is that we are actually almost at our most unstoppable when the game's tough and we can't have everything go our way. I suspect it's because of our legendary defence (their numbers this year have been historic, so legendary is not exaggerated), and our contested game just wearing opposition teams down. We have played a brand that's fit for finals footy, and played it better than anyone else. We won't be arrogant or complacent this year, given how underdoggish we've been all year. And we have a pretty bloody good mix of defensive and offensive swag. We just have to win every game from here on in, and instill that belief that we are as good a chance as anybody.

 

[The Swans Blog]

They were good in 2012, no doubt. I still feel they were better then though. They have been ultra lucky this year with having no injuries basically. What's the worst they ahve copped...Laird missed 4 weeks with a soft tissue issue, that's about it.

We played our worst half of the season basically against Adelaide, and we still almost won. I still maintain if we have to play Adelaide in Adelaide, I'd fancy our chances.

Worst half of the season is surely the Richmond game or the GWS game. You could even throw BLions and Carlton in that ring too.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

The best sides are those that can adapt to a game no matter how it's being played. Take Fremantle under Ross Lyon. Yeah they've been pretty successful (before this year) because their defensive zoning has shut down most teams. But whenever they've come up in a fast, free-flowing game (such as that of Hawthorn) they have struggled imperially.

Adelaide are similar, but in the opposite way to Freo. They love a fast, attacking game where they have the corridor and wing pretty much entirely to themselves, and they're extremely damaging when given the time to create their passages of play. But as we saw against Geelong and a couple of other times, when the going gets tough, the tough get going. They don't have a plan B for when the game becomes a slog and they can't spend entire games in their forward half.

Finals games are often about who can do best in tight contests where things aren't always going your way. It's about players flexibility and coaching flexibility. You have to be prepared to defend and go long stretches of the game without scoring a goal, or having no momentum if you DO score a goal. In other words, they aren't cake-walks, which are what sides like Adelaide look best in.

Assuming 100 points is the standard for if you've had a fair bit go your way, if you've scored under 100, it's been a tough game. It's always difficult to kick big scores in finals games.

Adelaide have had only five games this year where they've not scored over 100 points. And you guessed it, in three of those games, they lost. Their success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games is 40%.

GWS have had ten games this year where they've scored under 100 points. They lost five of those games. Their success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games is 50%.

Geelong have had ten games this year where they've scored under 100 points. They also have a success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games of 50%.

The Bulldogs have had thirteen games under 100 points this year. They've won seven of those for a 'non-cakewalk' success rate of just over 53%.

Hawthorn have had twelve games where they've scored under 100 points. They've won eight, which, correct me if I'm wrong, gives them a success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games of 66%.

The Swans have had twelve games this year where we've scored under 100 points. We have won nine of those games. Our success rate in 'non-cakewalk' games is 75%.

It's all good and well to be kicking huge scores and demolishing teams off the park. We've done that a handful of times this year, which is nice. But even better is that we are actually almost at our most unstoppable when the game's tough and we can't have everything go our way. I suspect it's because of our legendary defence (their numbers this year have been historic, so legendary is not exaggerated), and our contested game just wearing opposition teams down. We have played a brand that's fit for finals footy, and played it better than anyone else. We won't be arrogant or complacent this year, given how underdoggish we've been all year. And we have a pretty bloody good mix of defensive and offensive swag. We just have to win every game from here on in, and instill that belief that we are as good a chance as anybody.

I'd add games over 100 points that are won by under 2 goals to your non cakewalk analysis.

Imo that would show scoring power in close games. I wonder if a team like Adelaide would be leading that statement.

It would also be interesting to see those below 100 that are won by under 2-3 goals. Sometime a team can score under 100 but really dominate a match.

 

[miggs]

Adelaide was pretty good in 2012 and were a kick away from playing off against us. There was an argument that Hawthorn were "helped" through with dubious umpiring calls right at the death (3 seasons in a row really), not quite as obvious as Port Adelaide though.

they had a bloke that night nearly single handedly win them a final... we should make a play at him

 

[Sketi]

AFL website has us finishing 1st

Mitchell a chance to get rubbed out this week would be nice... But yes it is Hawthorn so I won't get my hopes up.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

they had a bloke that night nearly single handedly win them a final... we should make a play at him

Would only be interested if he came cheap.

Considering we traded jesse white to Collingwood I don't think we'd have enough to offer adelaide to get the deal done.

 

[miggs]

AFL website has us finishing 1st

Mitchell a chance to get rubbed out this week would be nice... But yes it is Hawthorn so I won't get my hopes up.

Geelong are bookies 2nd fave to win minor premieship @ $5.40 swans at $5.60 im tempted to have a nibble at those odds.

hawks @$1.81

 

[miggs]

Would only be interested if he came cheap.

Considering we traded jesse white to Collingwood I don't think we'd have enough to offer adelaide to get the deal done.

Nah dont trade jesse have you seen how athletic he is!!! hes gunna be a gun forward this year i can feel it

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Nah dont trade jesse have you seen how athletic he is!!! hes gunna be a gun forward this year i can feel it

True. He has all the attributes, he'll be a gun once he develops his footy smarts. Which obviously Comes with experience

 

[Millky95]

Posting here because the other similar thread is silly

Have us finishing 6th and losing to Adelaide in the Semi final. Sneaky feeling we'll drop the Tigers game and not sure how I feel against North in Tassie

 

[Kennedy Parker]

Posting here because the other similar thread is silly

Have us finishing 6th and losing to Adelaide in the Semi final. Sneaky feeling we'll drop the Tigers game and not sure how I feel against North in Tassie

Showing improvement, you had us 7th and losing to North a few weeks ago.

 

[RW]

I am normally conservative when rating our chances but if we lost to either North or the Tigers the way both are travelling at the moment I'd just about burn this place down!

 

[Kirkswan]

Posting here because the other similar thread is silly

Have us finishing 6th and losing to Adelaide in the Semi final. Sneaky feeling we'll drop the Tigers game and not sure how I feel against North in Tassie

Why 6th and why losing to Adelaide in the Semi? What do you think that either of these teams have that make us likely to lose against them? The core group of our current team was part of the team that lost the 2014 GF... I can't ever see them being complacent or overawed (or whatever the hell they were) again. This year, I think they have a very realistic shot at redemption and I really don't think they will throw it away on Norfs and/or Tigers.

I truly can't see us losing another game. Norfs were never really a top a four side, just had a relatively easy early draw. And the Tigers do generally save their best for us, but have you seen them play recently? Their best is just not good enough over four quarters. Sure they may do us in a quarter, or even a half (although imo this is very unlikely!) but we will be playing for either top 2 or at worst top 4... they won't beat us!

Our current percentage is 146.9 with Adelaide at 141.2 with a game in hand, and Geelong at 137.1. The Giants have dropped a game, so are no longer a threat to our top 2 spot, Adelaide need a 6% increase with games against Freo, Port and West Coast in hand, and the Geelong needs an increase of 9.8 with games against Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne. Imo, only the Cats and Crows have a chance to oust us from 2nd, and if both of them beat us on percentage we would still finish 4th.

 

[Millky95]

Why 6th and why losing to Adelaide in the Semi? What do you think that either of these teams have that make us likely to lose against them? The core group of our current team was part of the team that lost the 2014 GF... I can't ever see them being complacent or overawed (or whatever the hell they were) again. This year, I think they have a very realistic shot at redemption and I really don't think they will throw it away on Norfs and/or Tigers.

I truly can't see us losing another game. Norfs were never really a top a four side, just had a relatively easy early draw. And the Tigers do generally save their best for us, but have you seen them play recently? Their best is just not good enough over four quarters. Sure they may do us in a quarter, or even a half (although imo this is very unlikely!) but we will be playing for either top 2 or at worst top 4... they won't beat us!

Our current percentage is 146.9 with Adelaide at 141.2 with a game in hand, and Geelong at 137.1. The Giants have dropped a game, so are no longer a threat to our top 2 spot, Adelaide need a 6% increase with games against Freo, Port and West Coast in hand, and the Geelong needs an increase of 9.8 with games against Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne. Imo, only the Cats and Crows have a chance to oust us from 2nd, and if both of them beat us on percentage we would still finish 4th.

Just have a bad feeling about next week and don't trust us against Richmond. Also don't think we can beat Adelaide in Adelaide.

 

[The King!]

Posting here because the other similar thread is silly

Have us finishing 6th and losing to Adelaide in the Semi final. Sneaky feeling we'll drop the Tigers game and not sure how I feel against North in Tassie

Good grief

 

[The King!]

We should be clear on top, been the best team all year
Not saying we win the flag but rightly favourites

 

[Kennedy Parker]

Just have a bad feeling about next week and don't trust us against Richmond. Also don't think we can beat Adelaide in Adelaide.

We're only losing to North if we're really really inaccurate e.g. kick 5.20

Richmond have never beaten us twice in a season under Longmire

We were perhaps a centre clearance away from beating Adelaide in Adelaide earlier this year, that was with Ted playing on Walker for a half and getting no contributions out of Towers and Papley.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

We're only losing to North if we're really really inaccurate e.g. kick 5.20

Richmond have never beaten us twice in a season under Longmire

We were perhaps a centre clearance away from beating Adelaide in Adelaide earlier this year, that was with Ted playing on Walker for a half and getting no contributions out of Towers and Papley.

Only moments from beating the Hawks twice in the same year, which is very hard to do.

We deserve to be considered one of the favourites but Hawthorn and Adelaide that tag, too.

 

[PVF]

Posting here because the other similar thread is silly

Have us finishing 6th and losing to Adelaide in the Semi final. Sneaky feeling we'll drop the Tigers game and not sure how I feel against North in Tassie

Reverse psychology. I like it.