The run home

[Footy_Fan2007]

Good evening.
Ok so I was looking at the fixture for the last month of the home and away. As we all know making the top 4 is a must. And it's incredibly even this year.

At the end of this round the top 8 will look like this -

1. Hawthorn - 60 pts 124%
2. GWS - 52 pts 140%
3. Most likely Sydney who currently sit on 48 pts and have a percentage of 134 and assuming they beat Freo tomorrow.
4. Most likely Adelaide who also currently sit on 48 points and have a percentage of 128. Adelaide could hammer Essendon by 100 tomorrow which would take their percentage right up past ours.
5. Geelong - 52 pts 133%

The rest I won't go into as they don't look like challenging for the top 4.

Now let's look at the current top 5's run home.

Hawthorn - Melbourne, North, Eagles (Perth), Collingwood.

GWS - Suns, Eagles (spotless), Freo (spotless), North.

Swans - Port, Saints, North, Tigers.

Adelaide - Brisbane, Freo, Port, Eagles (AO)

Geelong - Essendon, Tigers, Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (Skilled)

They all have a reasonably easy run home with everyone having 1 danger game. Hawthorn have the 2 danger games (north and Eagles) and if they lost them both they could drop to 5th, but you would expect them to win one of them if not both. The problem is none of the top 5 play each other in the remaining 4 rounds. I know I'll be barracking for North in a few of the final rounds as they play 3 of the top 5 teams.

If Geelong win their remaining 4 games (yes I know it's a big IF) they will need to rely on at least 1 of the teams above them to drop a game which is not ideal. A top 2 finish looks tricky now with Richmond handing GWS a huge percentage.

We won't know till the very last game of the last round who finishes in the top 4.

Obviously it's only a guess but I think the final 8 will look like this-

1. Hawthorn
2. GWS
3. Adelaide
4. Geelong
5. Sydney
6. West Coast
7. Bulldogs
8. North

What's everyone's thoughts? Will we make top 4? I honestly can't remember a more even year.

 

[RegHickeyStand]

Adelaide could drop 2.
GWS could drop 1, and maybe 2 (unlikely)
Swans could drop 1.
Hawks and Geelong look safe.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Our season may well come down to percentage.

Geelong and Adelaide should win their remaining 4 and 5 games respectively to finish on the same points... It's paramount we have some big wins to finish 2 and get that home final.

I see GWS losing one more which puts them out of the equation for a home final first up and I can see the Hawks dropping two more games as well.

We need to ensure we finish first or second and a few big wins could become important.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Adelaide could drop 2.
GWS could drop 1, and maybe 2 (unlikely)
Swans could drop 1.
Hawks and Geelong look safe.

I'd be surprised if the Crows drop any games to be honest.

Theyve got Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and West Coast at home. I can't see a loss there.

 

[RegHickeyStand]

I'd be surprised if the Crows drop any games to be honest.

Theyve got Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and West Coast at home. I can't see a loss there.

Two easy games...and then if Port are up for it. That game could be interesting. Freo and West Coast could be anything on their day.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Two easy games...and then if Port are up for it. That game could be interesting. Freo and West Coast could be anything on their day.

I don't share the same optimism.

The entire Dangerfield situation was bound to have us play a final, let's hope it's in Victoria if it happens.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

If things go as you would expect based on ladder position (that is, none of the top 5 lose), then it'll be between Geelong and Sydney for the final spot in the four. It will all come down to percentage, which means big wins over Essendon, Richmond, and Brisbane are necessary if top 4 is the goal.

 

[DanA]

We'll finish with a percentage above 140%. Good chance that'll have us top 2

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Two easy games...and then if Port are up for it. That game could be interesting. Freo and West Coast could be anything on their day.

That's Port's final now. There's no doubt they'll throw the kitchen sink at that game. Freo at Subiaco is rarely a walk in the park, as we well know and of course West Coast will likely be playing for a home final in Round 23. As far as I'm concerned, Adelaide's last three games will be much tougher in reality than they look on paper and I think they'll be doing very well to win all of them. I also think that GWS will drop the North Melbourne game and West Coast might give them a run for their money too (who knows which Eagles side will show up?). And the way the season is going, there will be a couple more upsets to come...I just hope none of them involve us. Pretty glad now that West Coast has dropped a game, meaning that I don't have to barrack for Hawthorn in its games against the Eagles and North.

I was a bit concerned with the remaining games against Richmond and Melbourne, but wow...the Tigers are a rabble. We're due for a couple of massive wins, we've only had two 10+ goal wins all year (a by-product of our up-and-down application against mediocre opposition) and the most recent was in late-April. Hopefully we get a couple more over the next fortnight, then we can reassess where we stand.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

We'll finish with a percentage above 140%. Good chance that'll have us top 2

We would need to win the next three by a combined total of 150 and then comfortably dispatch of Melbourne to achieve that. In the meantime, GWS would need to be pulled back with some close games, which doesn't look likely given they play GC and Fremantle, who they should beat up on pretty easily. North could help us out considerably, but I don't have a lot of faith in their capacity to do so.

 

[Footy Smarts]

We would need to win the next three by a combined total of 150 and then comfortably dispatch of Melbourne to achieve that. In the meantime, GWS would need to be pulled back with some close games.

To be fair we should be aiming for 200+ over the next 3 weeks. Arguably the team with most of their players suspended is the most competitive at the moment. Brisbane and Richmond are filthy right now.

 

[Catastic82]

Hopefully the boys are aware and switched on in the next few weeks and really put down the foot of possible , I just can't see the oppositions teams putting up too much fight going by their last few games. Knowing the Tigers they will be fired up with us , same with Melbourne so you never really know .

But I remain hopeful that we should at the very least win all of theses games coming up .

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think all of geelong syd gws and adel go un defeated from here so all finish 17-5 and it comes down to %. Adelaide are our most likely to stay ahead of as their % is lowest,we just need to beat ess and bris by the same margins they do and we can fend them off. As adel play first in the last round we will know exactly how many points we need to beat melbourne by to be ahead of adel. If we finish 5th we are guaranteed to have to travel in the second week unless hawthorn lose the QF so we want to finish 2nd-4th.

 

[Seeds]

If things go as you would expect based on ladder position (that is, none of the top 5 lose), then it'll be between Geelong and Sydney for the final spot in the four. It will all come down to percentage, which means big wins over Essendon, Richmond, and Brisbane are necessary if top 4 is the goal.

Why wouldn't it be adelaide? There percentage is well below ours and we have an easier draw?

 

[Seeds]

I think all of geelong syd gws and adel go un defeated from here so all finish 17-5 and it comes down to %. Adelaide are our most likely to stay ahead of as their % is lowest,we just need to beat ess and bris by the same margins they do and we can fend them off. As adel play first in the last round we will know exactly how many points we need to beat melbourne by to be ahead of adel. If we finish 5th we are guaranteed to have to travel in the second week unless hawthorn lose the QF so we want to finish 2nd-4th.

We really want to finish 2nd or 4th. Not 3rd. Although 3rd is better then 5th.

 

[Footy Smarts]

We really want to finish 2nd or 4th. Not 3rd. Although 3rd is better then 5th.

Yep having to go to Spotless in week one would be horrible. I don't fear Adelaide but GWS on their home deck would be a massive challenge.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Yep having to go to Spotless in week one would be horrible. I don't fear Adelaide but GWS on their home deck would be a massive challenge.

Collingwood smashed the Giants in their last game at Spotless. I don't think they're that good to start with and I think the potential for first finals jitters is massive, particularly given the number of travelling supporters we'd be likely to get in at Spotless, compared to playing away against the Crows or Swans.

 

[Seeds]

Collingwood smashed the Giants in their last game at Spotless. I don't think they're that good to start with and I think the potential for first finals jitters is massive, particularly given the number of travelling supporters we'd be likely to get in at Spotless, compared to playing away against the Crows or Swans.

They kept a team to 3 goals yesterday. They are the number one challenger for the flag. They have had a few injuries this year but are sitting second anyway. The hawthorn era is over. GWs are the team to beat. We don't want to go to spotless in a final.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Collingwood smashed the Giants in their last game at Spotless. I don't think they're that good to start with and I think the potential for first finals jitters is massive, particularly given the number of travelling supporters we'd be likely to get in at Spotless, compared to playing away against the Crows or Swans.

I don't want to play Sydney in a final but there's every chance they don't make the top 4. I watched the GWS loss to Collingwood and it gave me no confidence that it would happen in a final. They got way ahead of themselves and produced a ridiculously lazy quarter of footy while everything worked for the pies. When they've shown up they've easily outplayed us without putting it in the scoreboard, thumped the Hawks and swans and a bunch of other teams up there.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Yep having to go to Spotless in week one would be horrible. I don't fear Adelaide but GWS on their home deck would be a massive challenge.

I'd rather the Giants at spotless than Adelaide in Adelaide or the Swans at SCG.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I'd rather the Giants at spotless than Adelaide in Adelaide or the Swans at SCG.

I'd take Adelaide any day. They can't go with us through the middle and we know how to stop their run.

 

[Bobby_]

Yes. Adelaide in Adelaide over GWS in Sydney thanks.
Giants are Geelong of 2007 and will smash whoever they face in week one by plenty.

 

[donbooger]

Likely all the team will win them all. Gws with 5% break on the other 3 after this week but with the harder draw to come.

Geelong easiest draw then adelaide, then sydney gws about the same.

With the percentage the key id rather be in order geelong gws adelaide sydney. So 2 to 5 in that order.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

They kept a team to 3 goals yesterday. They are the number one challenger for the flag. They have had a few injuries this year but are sitting second anyway. The hawthorn era is over. GWs are the team to beat. We don't want to go to spotless in a final.

They kept Richmond to three goals yesterday. Since the bye, they have shown an ability to put terrible teams to the sword and not much else, as far as I'm concerned. Of course, I'd rather get them down here, but I'd be very confident of rolling them at Spotless as well.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I don't want to play Sydney in a final but there's every chance they don't make the top 4. I watched the GWS loss to Collingwood and it gave me no confidence that it would happen in a final. They got way ahead of themselves and produced a ridiculously lazy quarter of footy while everything worked for the pies. When they've shown up they've easily outplayed us without putting it in the scoreboard, thumped the Hawks and swans and a bunch of other teams up there.

Inside 50s were 76-48 in our favour, last time we played. Ten more scoring shots for a ten point win. It should have been five goals.