Analysis The run home

[SA HAWK]

Minimal injuries. Decent draw. No excuses.

 

[Steven Tyler]

We can get the ball inside 50 60 times a match................

Can’t kick 10 goals...........


Major problems that need fixing if we are to sneak finals

 

[TylerDurden]

The run home means everything - there isn't a single game in the last 11 that I don't think is winnable

Which means if we are good enough then we'll play finals

I agree. But I thought the Swans, Bris, North and Eagles games were winnable. They weren’t. We’re an average side which means all games are up in the air.

 

[Holy Rioli]

The fact is we're the only club who has played every side that is currently in the 8, and we've gone 4 and 4 and no one has spanked us.

We've gone 2-1 for clubs below us, with that hideous Brisbane game being the blight on our season to this point.

In our run home, we play 8 games against teams lower than us, and 3 above us (Adelaide, Geelong @ home, Sydney away). I wouldn't be surprised if we go 8-3 on the way home for a 14-8 season that gets us 6-7 on the ladder.

There are no standout teams to play (Rich, Melb, WCE) and we really should be aiming to win every game here on out.

 

[Thaihawk]

The fact is we're the only club who has played every side that is currently in the 8, and we've gone 4 and 4 and no one has spanked us.

We've gone 2-1 for clubs below us, with that hideous Brisbane game being the blight on our season to this point.

In our run home, we play 8 games against teams lower than us, and 3 above us (Adelaide, Geelong @ home, Sydney away). I wouldn't be surprised if we go 8-3 on the way home for a 14-8 season that gets us 6-7 on the ladder.

There are no standout teams to play (Rich, Melb, WCE) and we really should be aiming to win every game here on out.

The ball is clearly in our hands, and on results so far we should make the cut. Hodge and Fagan have been the major thorn in our side, and in the second half of the season, hopefully they can knock off some of our competitors.

Injuries are starting to bite into some clubs, and will play a part in formulating the finals.

IMO, it's clearly up to Clarko, but we need some big wins to improve our poor percentage.

Imagine Jaeger, Tom Mitchell, Jarman, Burton, Morison and some other young players running on to the G in September with the likes of Cyril, Rough, Burger and co., it's mouthwatering!

Edited: I forgot about our Normie for Sicily!!!!!!

 

[MrPremiership]

We're going ok and should finish anywhere between 6th to 12th.

Reckon we finish with 13 wins. Might just be enough for finals.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Adelaide (@ MCG) I'd say we would be 60-40 to win
Gold Coast (@ UTAS) 80-20 our way
Giants (@ Spotless) 40-60 in Giants favour
Doggies (@ Etihad) 70-30 our way
Lions (@ UTAS) 90-10 our way (reckon we'll get revenge and get it well this game)
Carlton (@ Etihad) 80-20 our way
Dockers (@ Optus) 70-30 our way
Bombers (@ MGC) 80-20 our way
Cats (@ MCG) 30-70 your way
Saints (@ Etihad) 80-20 our way
Swans (@ SCG) 40-60 Sydney's way (we match up well against Sydney regardless of location)

We should be in with the mindset that everyone of those games are winnable, because they are, but in reality we can't be up every week and we'll lose 3 of those. Worst case I reckon we lose 4 of those.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Just as a reference here is Geelong's draw for the run home:

North (@ GMHBA) 60-40 in Geelong's favour
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 in Richmond's favour
Doggies (@ Etihad) 75-25 in Geelong's favour
Swans (@ SCG) 80-20 Sydney's favour
Adelaide (@ Adelaide) 60-40 Adelaide
Melbourne (@ GMHBA) 60-40 Melbourne
Lions (@ GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 Richmond
Hawks (@ MCG) 35-65 Geelong
Dockers (@ GMHBA) 80-20 Geelong
Suns (@GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong

I have Geelong favourite for 6 of those games, but there are 7 high risk games for them (Richmond X2, Melbourne, Sydney away, Adelaide away, North, Hawks). Could easily go 4-7 for the rest of the year and miss finals (or even 5-6 and miss finals).

I think we are well positioned considering we've worked through the hardest part of our draw now.

And from a motivation point of view, when we play Geelong in R21, we are most likely looking at an opportunity to end their season.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Just as a reference here is Geelong's draw for the run home:

North (@ GMHBA) 60-40 in Geelong's favour
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 in Richmond's favour
Doggies (@ Etihad) 75-25 in Geelong's favour
Swans (@ SCG) 80-20 Sydney's favour
Adelaide (@ Adelaide) 60-40 Adelaide
Melbourne (@ GMHBA) 60-40 Melbourne
Lions (@ GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 Richmond
Hawks (@ MCG) 35-65 Geelong
Dockers (@ GMHBA) 80-20 Geelong
Suns (@GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong

I have Geelong favourite for 6 of those games, but there are 7 high risk games for them (Richmond X2, Melbourne, Sydney away, Adelaide away, North, Hawks). Could easily go 4-7 for the rest of the year and miss finals (or even 5-6 and miss finals).

I think we are well positioned considering we've worked through the hardest part of our draw now.

And from a motivation point of view, when we play Geelong in R21, we are most likely looking at an opportunity to end their season.

If we finish there season by beating them in round 21 that will be enough to have had a successfull year in my book.

Please let it be so.

 

[UAWM]

If we can somehow find a way to ******* score when we get it into our F50 we will destroy teams

 

[Thaihawk]

I think what we are all forgetting is that exceptional form is very difficult to maintain for a long period of time. Richmond, North and Melbourne have been up for a while now, and I would think Melbourne and North could have a lapse, whereas we have only shown glimpses of our best, and under Clarko's command usually keep the best for last, so I am hoping for our September build up to start after the bye.

Am I dreaming? I don't know, but one thing I am sure of is that there are eight coaches out there who are praying we don't make the cut for the September action.

 

[Thaihawk]

If we can somehow find a way to ******* score when we get it into our F50 we will destroy teams

That's our after the bye surprise for 2018!

Remember in 2017 it was 'look at our budding talent,' and we all know how well that went, don't we?

 

[MightyHawks]

I agree. But I thought the Swans, Bris, North and Eagles games were winnable. They weren’t. We’re an average side which means all games are up in the air.

Those games were all winnable - we just didn't win them. I'm happy to see no trip to Adelaide or Eagles in Perth in the run home

We are an average side, but we are 4-4 against sides currently in the 8. If a team is good enough to win half their games against sides in the 8 then they usually finish 4th-6th on the ladder. Now we have 6 matches in the run home that most people would think Hawthorn should win. If we actually win these games (Suns, Lions, Dogs, Saints, Bombers, Blues) then that's 12 wins and we are probably making the 8. But we could easily drop those games if we aren't on our game.

IMO it would be a terrific result for 2018 if we played two finals and had a win - great experience for our kids who haven't played finals yet

 

[Furn2]

Interestingly 8 our 11 games so far have been against teams in the top 8. Out of those 8 we are 4-4 and were competitive in 3 of those losses. If we can find our early season form we can still go on a run to the finals and go some damage.

Need to find some believe and move the ball quicker.

 

[TylerDurden]

Those games were all winnable - we just didn't win them. I'm happy to see no trip to Adelaide or Eagles in Perth in the run home

We are an average side, but we are 4-4 against sides currently in the 8. If a team is good enough to win half their games against sides in the 8 then they usually finish 4th-6th on the ladder. Now we have 6 matches in the run home that most people would think Hawthorn should win. If we actually win these games (Suns, Lions, Dogs, Saints, Bombers, Blues) then that's 12 wins and we are probably making the 8. But we could easily drop those games if we aren't on our game.

IMO it would be a terrific result for 2018 if we played two finals and had a win - great experience for our kids who haven't played finals yet

I don't disagree with you.

I've just got little confidence in the side until i see us sharpen up our ball movement going inside 50. Until then, any game is a lottery.

 

[Sirlemsip]

The run home means everything - there isn't a single game in the last 11 that I don't think is winnable

Which means if we are good enough then we'll play finals

Yes, that is generally how it works

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Yes, that is generally how it works

Carlton were not good enough when the drug cheats made the 8.

 

[MightyHawks]

Yes, that is generally how it works

Not at all, we could be good enough over the next 11 weeks to play finals, but if we had say 4 matches like Eagles in Perth, Port in Adelaide and Richmond twice - we could lose them all narrowly and end up missing the finals even though we played better footy than the teams that end up finishing 5-8

There's always a couple of sides who were lucky to make the finals (fixture, injuries, running into opponents at the right time etc), and a couple of sides that were unlucky to miss out

 

[MinerBoy]

Our next loss will be round 4, 2019.

 

[Thaihawk]

Our next loss will be round 4, 2019.

That's what I'm talking about!

 

[Brant]

Our next loss will be round 4, 2019.

Against Brisbane...

 

[Pessimistic]

Geelong game could easily mean loser doesn’t make finals.

If we are lucky enough to win that, a similar game v Sydney for a possible home final


I’m basing this on squiggle predictions

 

[Pessimistic]

Hearing how beating up on * makes Richmond a sure grand finalist.

Pretty much how Hawthorn beat them

So how come they dropped it v West Coast? Foxing?

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Geelong game could easily mean loser doesn’t make finals.

If we are lucky enough to win that, a similar game v Sydney for a possible home final


I’m basing this on squiggle predictions

Nick Dal Santo has said 8th spot will go to us or Geelong based on %.

But he also tipped Collingwood to miss the 8 so make of that what you will.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Just as a reference here is Geelong's draw for the run home:

North (@ GMHBA) 60-40 in Geelong's favour
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 in Richmond's favour
Doggies (@ Etihad) 75-25 in Geelong's favour
Swans (@ SCG) 80-20 Sydney's favour
Adelaide (@ Adelaide) 60-40 Adelaide
Melbourne (@ GMHBA) 60-40 Melbourne
Lions (@ GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 Richmond
Hawks (@ MCG) 35-65 Geelong
Dockers (@ GMHBA) 80-20 Geelong
Suns (@GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong

I have Geelong favourite for 6 of those games, but there are 7 high risk games for them (Richmond X2, Melbourne, Sydney away, Adelaide away, North, Hawks). Could easily go 4-7 for the rest of the year and miss finals (or even 5-6 and miss finals).

I think we are well positioned considering we've worked through the hardest part of our draw now.

And from a motivation point of view, when we play Geelong in R21, we are most likely looking at an opportunity to end their season.

Interesting, if we beat Geelong we are probably every chance of finishing above them this season.