Analysis The run home

[Dewnior]

Geelong game could easily mean loser doesn’t make finals.

If we are lucky enough to win that, a similar game v Sydney for a possible home final

That brings back memories of the final round of 2007. We needed to beat Swans to get top 4 spot but fell short.

 

[Pessimistic]

That brings back memories of the final round of 2007. We needed to beat Swans to get top 4 spot but fell short.

Ah yet another wasted swans final series then

 

[SA HAWK]

Hearing how beating up on * makes Richmond a sure grand finalist.

Pretty much how Hawthorn beat them

So how come they dropped it v West Coast? Foxing?

Seriously?

We were ordinary and unconvincing against * Richmond absolutely smashed them.

They lost against West Coast because they are s**t interstate which won't matter to them if they finish top 2.

 

[thejockey]

Nick Dal Santo has said 8th spot will go to us or Geelong based on %.

But he also tipped Collingwood to miss the 8 so make of that what you will.

I heard that , thought it was an interesting comment given how nice Collingwoods run home is. I think they’ll have to really stuff up not to make it

 

[Pessimistic]

Seriously?

We were ordinary and unconvincing against * Richmond absolutely smashed them.

They lost against West Coast because they are s**t interstate which won't matter to them if they finish top 2.

One goal difference?

 

[grumbleguts]

Adelaide (@ MCG) I'd say we would be 60-40 to win
Gold Coast (@ UTAS) 80-20 our way
Giants (@ Spotless) 40-60 in Giants favour
Doggies (@ Etihad) 70-30 our way
Lions (@ UTAS) 90-10 our way (reckon we'll get revenge and get it well this game)
Carlton (@ Etihad) 80-20 our way
Dockers (@ Optus) 70-30 our way
Bombers (@ MGC) 80-20 our way
Cats (@ MCG) 30-70 your way
Saints (@ Etihad) 80-20 our way
Swans (@ SCG) 40-60 Sydney's way (we match up well against Sydney regardless of location)

Just as a reference here is Geelong's draw for the run home:

North (@ GMHBA) 60-40 in Geelong's favour
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 in Richmond's favour
Doggies (@ Etihad) 75-25 in Geelong's favour
Swans (@ SCG) 80-20 Sydney's favour
Adelaide (@ Adelaide) 60-40 Adelaide
Melbourne (@ GMHBA) 60-40 Melbourne
Lions (@ GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong
Richmond (@ MCG) 75-25 Richmond
Hawks (@ MCG) 35-65 Geelong
Dockers (@ GMHBA) 80-20 Geelong
Suns (@GMHBA) 90-10 Geelong

It is interesting, that when we play geelong, we are 40-60
when geelong [lay us in the same game they are 65-35.

Someone is taking 5% off the top.

 

[SA HAWK]

One goal difference?

We are talking about Essendon right?

 

[Holy Rioli]

It is interesting, that when we play geelong, we are 40-60
when geelong [lay us in the same game they are 65-35.

Someone is taking 5% off the top.

eh so I changed my mind between posts. Sue me, these are my feelings on likely %'s. Based on nothing more than gut feel, no math or science or logic behind it.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

eh so I changed my mind between posts. Sue me, these are my feelings on likely %'s. Based on nothing more than gut feel, no math or science or logic behind it.

Don't believe him - he's taking a slice.

 

[Hodginator]

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

 

[grumbleguts]

The trouble with playing plebs in the second half, is we will not be match hardened by playing witches hats for 11 weeks, and we will not be able to take points off out direct opponents when aiming for a top position.

 

[Thaihawk]

The trouble with playing plebs in the second half, is we will not be match hardened by playing witches hats for 11 weeks, and we will not be able to take points off out direct opponents when aiming for a top position.

If we were in a position to play finals by round 21, then cats and swines would be good finals preparation, I would have thought.

 

[grumbleguts]

If we were in a position to play finals by round 21, then cats and swines would be good finals preparation, I would have thought.

I meant good sides. Not sides that are where they are on the ladder due to free rides through life.
I should have made myself a little clearer.

 

[Pessimistic]

We are talking about Essendon right?

Compare the result Richmond v *ess to Hawthorn v *ess

 

[Kil Phearns]

Compare the result Richmond v *ess to Hawthorn v *ess

"Only" an eight goal difference (71pts vs. 23pts).

 

[kimbopen]

If we can somehow find a way to ******* score when we get it into our F50 we will destroy teams

I think getting Cyril back will help in that regard.

 

[FisherHawk]

Looking at the draw, the optimist in me says, 14 wins. We'll play finals.
The pesemist in me says, 12 wins. We'll miss finals probably due to percentage.

 

[SA HAWK]

Compare the result Richmond v *ess to Hawthorn v *ess

We had an unconvincing win and Richmond smashed them I am not seeing your point.

 

[wahawk]

Rich, Geel, Syd & Adel have some tough games coming up.
Will be interesting to see how the ladder looks after 5 more rounds.

My ladder predictor looks like

 

[Thaihawk]

Rich, Geel, Syd & Adel have some tough games coming up.
Will be interesting to see how the ladder looks after 5 more rounds.

My ladder predictor looks like
View attachment 509499

I think you have North a little high, even though they have started well they are still inconsistent; that's my opinion fwiw.

 

[SA HAWK]

Rich, Geel, Syd & Adel have some tough games coming up.
Will be interesting to see how the ladder looks after 5 more rounds.

My ladder predictor looks like
View attachment 509499

Geelong will finish top 4.

 

[thejockey]

Reads nicely , really don’t have an excuse not to make it .

This will sound negative but I don’t think we are really a pencil in wins side at this stage.
I can see us dropping 1 even 2 of those expected ‘wins’ unless we see a decent increase in form and consistency.
We’ve already dropped the Lions game and last year GC beat us twice .
We also lost to Carlton last year when we had everything to play for and we’re in form at that stage

It’s very rare you see sides going on long win streaks these days bar the really top sides , which we aren’t .

Realistically I think we either just make it or just miss out 11-13 wins

 

[MasterSamurai]

Reads nicely , really don’t have an excuse not to make it .

This will sound negative but I don’t think we are really a pencil in wins side at this stage.
I can see us dropping 1 even 2 of those expected ‘wins’ unless we see a decent increase in form and consistency.
We’ve already dropped the Lions game and last year GC beat us twice .
We also lost to Carlton last year when we had everything to play for and we’re in form at that stage

It’s very rare you see sides going on long win streaks these days bar the really top sides , which we aren’t .

Realistically I think we either just make it or just miss out 11-13 wins

Sounds about right.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Reads nicely , really don’t have an excuse not to make it .

This will sound negative but I don’t think we are really a pencil in wins side at this stage.
I can see us dropping 1 even 2 of those expected ‘wins’ unless we see a decent increase in form and consistency.
We’ve already dropped the Lions game and last year GC beat us twice .
We also lost to Carlton last year when we had everything to play for and we’re in form at that stage

It’s very rare you see sides going on long win streaks these days bar the really top sides , which we aren’t .

Realistically I think we either just make it or just miss out 11-13 wins

Can't see us losing to the Suns or Lions in Tassie but I agree any of the other games is losable for us.