Strategy The run home

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Tassieboy

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2009
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We are probably cooked. Our defence is holding up well, but we can’t score or hit the side of a barn door.

But... we go in favourites against Sydney and North Melbourne. If we win them both we go 9-7 and who knows? Maybe one day it’ll click.
 

Bjchan13

Team Captain
Jul 23, 2018
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Next 2 (Syd and nth) are must wins and should look to improve percentage. A win is possible but more likely to be a loss in Adelaide v crows. Suns after that are a must win. Port and dogs (bogey team) back to back at Marvel are must wins. Then need one of either freo in Perth or pies at the g. Leaves us with 13 wins and a finals spot. Doable.
 

blitzer

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 27, 2006
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Next 2 (Syd and nth) are must wins and should look to improve percentage. A win is possible but more likely to be a loss in Adelaide v crows. Suns after that are a must win. Port and dogs (bogey team) back to back at Marvel are must wins. Then need one of either freo in Perth or pies at the g. Leaves us with 13 wins and a finals spot. Doable.
I must still be high from the win, that actually sounds doable.
 

Old Stuckup

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Nov 7, 2017
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Next 2 (Syd and nth) are must wins and should look to improve percentage. A win is possible but more likely to be a loss in Adelaide v crows. Suns after that are a must win. Port and dogs (bogey team) back to back at Marvel are must wins. Then need one of either freo in Perth or pies at the g. Leaves us with 13 wins and a finals spot. Doable.
If we win the next two we'll have sneakily won 5 of our last 6 heading into Friday night in Adelaide.
 

Bombers36

Club Legend
Jul 15, 2008
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8 games to go - we will be favorite to win 5 of them and if we can do that we'll end up with 12 wins and be in the mix for 7th or 8th spot;-

Sydney @ the G - win
North @ Marvel - win
Adelaide in Adelaide - loss
Gold Coast in Gold Coast - win
Port @ Marvel - win
Bulldogs @ Marvel - win
Freo in Freo - loss
Collingwood @ the G - loss

Would be great to come home hard like we did last year....
 

Tassieboy

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2009
14,030
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A quick look suggests that 12 wins gives you a decent chance of making finals. It will likely come down to percentage.

Brisbane, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney and Richmond are fighting for the last 3 stops in the 8.

Sydney are finished if we beat them on Saturday.

Richmond have a poor percentage and have Collingwood, GWS, Port, Brisbane. So they are a real chance to miss out. They likely to need to win 6/9.

Brisbane, Fremantle and Port Adelaide are the unknowns.

Winning 12 games for us looks doable. 13 is probably a stretch
 

JayJ20

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
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Port losing helps us massively. Adelaide losing brings them back in the top 8 calculations.

Could St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne win?
 

Darealrath

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Jul 6, 2002
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Don't think we match up well with the dogs for some reason. Can see us getting into a great position, blowing that, and having to win one of the last two.
 

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_Swoon

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Oct 12, 2015
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12-10 isn't going to get us in barring some huge upsets to teams above us. 13-9, and a healthy percentage increase to go along with it, is the minimum required to play finals from here IMO.

Ran the ladder predictor simply betting on the favourites for each game, all margins of 12, and it spat us out at 9th sitting on 12-10 with Freo and Brisbane a game clear.
 

JT_the_Man

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Dec 23, 2014
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And just like that percentage is the only thing standing between us and the 8.

It’s really in our hands, especially considering we play Port and Freo in the run home.
 

blitzer

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 27, 2006
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I’m sure a lot of us don’t have much confidence in us making it but I certainly have no confidence in Port and Freo either. 8th spot could be a team that falls into it and gets smashed in the first final
Now that sounds like us. One day it would be nice to qualify for finals from a position of strength instead of just limping in.
 

MattF185

Team Captain
Jul 16, 2012
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You can almost write Port off now, their run home is ridiculously hard. It’s basically between us and Freo IF we get the job done this weekend. BUT every week a curveball is thrown to make it even more interesting!
 
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