Strategy The run home

[eth-dog]

9 games left. Definitely need 12 wins, probably need 13 wins to make the 8. I think there are 5 teams trying to get into 2 spots in Port, Fremantle, Richmond, us and Sydney (who need things to go right).

Port Adelaide (7-6) have: Western Bulldogs (AO, W), Adelaide (AO, 50/50), Brisbane (AO, 50/50), Richmond (MCG, 50/50), GWS (AO, L), Essendon (Docklands, 50/50), Sydney (AO, 50/50), North Melbourne (Docklands, W), Fremantle (AO, 50/50). Split the 50/50's you end up at 12-10.

Fremantle (7-6) have: Carlton (PS, W), West Coast (PS, 50/50), Hawthorne (YP, W), Sydney (PS, 50/50), Western Bulldogs (Docklands, W), Geelong (PS, L), St. Kilda (Docklands, W), Essendon (PS, 50/50), Port Adelaide (AO, 50/50). Split the 50/50's and you end up at 13-9.

Richmond (7-6) have: St. Kilda (Docklands, W), Gold Coast (Carrara, W), GWS (MCG, L), Port Adelaide (MCG, 50/50), Collingwood (MCG, L), Melbourne (MCG, W), Carlton (MCG, W), West Coast (MCG, L), Brisbane (MCG, 50/50). Split the 50/50's and you end up at 12-10.

Essendon (6-7) have: GWS (Docklands, L), Sydney (MCG, 50/50), North Melbourne (Docklands, W), Adelaide (AO, L), Gold Coast (Carrara, W), Port Adelaide (Docklands, 50/50), Western Bulldogs (Docklands, W), Fremantle (PS, 50/50), Collingwood (MCG, L). Win 2 of the 3 50/50's and you end up 11-11.

Sydney (5-8) have: Gold Coast (SCG, W), Essendon (MCG, 50/50), Carlton (SCG, W), Fremantle (PS, 50/50), Geelong (SCG, L), GWS (Showgrounds, L), Port Adelaide (AO, 50/50), Melbourne (MCG, W), St. Kilda (SCG, W). Win 2 of 3 50/50's and you get 11-11.

So we have the toughest run home of those I think are in contention. I think the current top 8 will maintain it's position with Freo to slide into 7th and have a Showdown EF.

 

[The Donners]

Yeah I think us with a further 5 wins from here in is about right.

All I ask is that they don’t give Worsfold another year to waste.

 

[JayJ20]

You're off with Richmond. Last 7 games at the MCG. They have Cotchin and Nankervis coming back soon as well. I think Port and Richmond make it. Still only lost to Geelong and Collingwood twice at the MCG since mid 2017. i'd have it like this:

Richmond (7-6) have: St. Kilda (Docklands, W), Gold Coast (Carrara, W), GWS (MCG, W), Port Adelaide (MCG, W), Collingwood (MCG, L), Melbourne (MCG, W), Carlton (MCG, W), West Coast (MCG, L), Brisbane (MCG, W). 14-8.

Port Adelaide (7-6) have: Western Bulldogs (AO, W), Adelaide (AO, L), Brisbane (AO, W), Richmond (MCG, L), GWS (AO, W), Essendon (Docklands, L), Sydney (AO, W), North Melbourne (Docklands, W), Fremantle (AO, W). 13-9

Fremantle (7-6) have: Carlton (PS, W), West Coast (PS, L), Hawthorne (YP, L), Sydney (PS, W), Western Bulldogs (Docklands, W), Geelong (PS, L), St. Kilda (Docklands, W), Essendon (PS, W), Port Adelaide (AO, L). 12-10.

Essendon (6-7) have: GWS (Docklands, L), Sydney (MCG, W), North Melbourne (Docklands, W), Adelaide (AO, L), Gold Coast (Carrara, W), Port Adelaide (Docklands, W), Western Bulldogs (Docklands, W), Fremantle (PS, L), Collingwood (MCG, L). 11-11.

Sydney (5-8) have: Gold Coast (SCG, W), Essendon (MCG, L), Carlton (SCG, W), Fremantle (PS, L), Geelong (SCG, W), GWS (Showgrounds, L), Port Adelaide (AO, L), Melbourne (MCG, W), St. Kilda (SCG, W). 10-12.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I reckon we're cooked and so is Worsfold. Only thing really you can point to in Worsfold's defense is the injuries we've had to key players throughout the season.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Yeah, it’s not a pretty picture.

 

[JT_the_Man]

I have us getting 6 more wins.

Still doubt we make the 8, and even if we do we aren’t going to do any damage.

 

[eth-dog]

You're off with Richmond. Last 7 games at the MCG. They have Cotchin and Nankervis coming back soon as well. I think Port and Richmond make it. Still only lost to Geelong and Collingwood twice at the MCG since mid 2017. i'd have it like this:

Richmond (7-6) have: St. Kilda (Docklands, W), Gold Coast (Carrara, W), GWS (MCG, W), Port Adelaide (MCG, W), Collingwood (MCG, L), Melbourne (MCG, W), Carlton (MCG, W), West Coast (MCG, L), Brisbane (MCG, W). 14-8.

Port Adelaide (7-6) have: Western Bulldogs (AO, W), Adelaide (AO, L), Brisbane (AO, W), Richmond (MCG, L), GWS (AO, W), Essendon (Docklands, L), Sydney (AO, W), North Melbourne (Docklands, W), Fremantle (AO, W). 13-9

Fremantle (7-6) have: Carlton (PS, W), West Coast (PS, L), Hawthorne (YP, L), Sydney (PS, W), Western Bulldogs (Docklands, W), Geelong (PS, L), St. Kilda (Docklands, W), Essendon (PS, W), Port Adelaide (AO, L). 12-10.

Essendon (6-7) have: GWS (Docklands, L), Sydney (MCG, W), North Melbourne (Docklands, W), Adelaide (AO, L), Gold Coast (Carrara, W), Port Adelaide (Docklands, W), Western Bulldogs (Docklands, W), Fremantle (PS, L), Collingwood (MCG, L). 11-11.

Sydney (5-8) have: Gold Coast (SCG, W), Essendon (MCG, L), Carlton (SCG, W), Fremantle (PS, L), Geelong (SCG, W), GWS (Showgrounds, L), Port Adelaide (AO, L), Melbourne (MCG, W), St. Kilda (SCG, W). 10-12.

Richmond of 2019 are not the Richmond of 17/18

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I have us getting 6 more wins.

Still doubt we make the 8, and even if we do we aren’t going to do any damage.

I really don’t want us to finish 7th or 8th. It’s fool’s gold imo, and you’re just making up the numbers.

9th or 10th would instead force the club to look at where it’s actually at.

 

[BomberFan355]

Richmond of 2019 are not the Richmond of 17/18

True, they’ve had a heap of injuries.

 

[JayJ20]

Richmond of 2019 are not the Richmond of 17/18

That’s true, but GWS and Brisbane are average at the MCG. They already beat Port away. Heck Hawthorn smashed GWS there and Richmond are better.

That’s the difference between my list and yours.

 

[Howard Moon]

Quicker we put a line thru the season the better.

As soon as that happens the team will free up and play uninhibited football and make a run at the finals, classic juxtaposition.

Just need to make the call that the cue is in the rack. Then you can make finals.

 

[DapperJong]

I can see us scraping in on 11 wins.

 

[Milanista28]

We have enough winnable games to make it, problem is we rarely win all of our winnable games, We need a scalp or 2, needs to be the Giants this week.

Having said all that I can't see our forward line getting the job done in many of our remaining games, Most of our wins will be 60 vs 75 type scorelines.

 

[Albertross]

Just my opinion, I think you are being extremely generous to Sydney to think they will get 11 wins.

 

[eth-dog]

That’s true, but GWS and Brisbane are average at the MCG. They already beat Port away. Heck Hawthorn smashed GWS there and Richmond are better.

That’s the difference between my list and yours.

No, the biggest difference is that you don't seem to acknowledge 50/50 games.

 

[JayJ20]

No, the biggest difference is that you don't seem to acknowledge 50/50 games.

I don’t see the point. GWS is a 50/50, but I don’t think Port or Brisbane are 50/50s. Especially Brisbane. You have Port and Brisbane as a 50/50. I have them as a win. It’s my opinion anyway

 

[eth-dog]

I don’t see the point. GWS is a 50/50, but I don’t think Port or Brisbane are 50/50s. Especially Brisbane. You have Port and Brisbane as a 50/50. I have them as a win. It’s my opinion anyway

But like, at all. You don't have any side having 50/50's. Where the two clubs are so close that it's hard to predict. It's a thing.

 

[Towno78]

Not sure why you listed Sydney. Need to win at least 8 of 9. Not in contention.

Also Brissy aren't home yet. Need to win 5 of their last 9 and have a tough run.

We need to win our next 3 (doubt it) and 7 more all up (we won't).

 

[eth-dog]

Not sure why you listed Sydney. Need to win at least 8 of 9. Not in contention.

Also Brissy aren't home yet. Need to win 5 of their last 9 and have a tough run.

We need to win our next 3 (doubt it) and 7 more all up (we won't).

Sydney have a knack for these things. Brizzy will get home IMO. Melbourne, WB, GC, Norf, Hawthorne, Port and Richmond are all very winnable games.

 

[astrowizzle]

The run home for me is 23km. About as much chance of me making that as bombers playing finals

 

[JayJ20]

But like, at all. You don't have any side having 50/50's. Where the two clubs are so close that it's hard to predict. It's a thing.

That’s how I want to set up my run home. I prefer to give my prediction on who wins.

 

[Towno78]

Sydney have a knack for these things. Brizzy will get home IMO. Melbourne, WB, GC, Norf, Hawthorne, Port and Richmond are all very winnable games.

Brizzy may well get home, but they should still be on here.

 

[Nifft]

If we win tonight we could end up on 12 or 13 wins (if we're lucky). The 3 teams above us should win their games this round, so if we lose tonight we'll be most likely 2 games out of the 8, and that'll be hard to make up.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

If we win tonight we could end up on 12 or 13 wins (if we're lucky). The 3 teams above us should win their games this round, so if we lose tonight we'll be most likely 2 games out of the 8, and that'll be hard to make up.

Sydney and Saints loss biting us in the arse.

Win those 2 games and we'll be sitting 8-5 right now and no talks of Worsfold losing his job another wasted season just like last year

 

[Nifft]

Sydney and Saints loss biting us in the arse.

Win those 2 games and we'll be sitting 8-5 right now in 6th spot and no talks of Worsfold potentially losing his job

Especially considering the umpires were busy stuffing dollar bills into Dane Rampe's g-string instead of penalising him.