Strategy The run home

[JayJ20]

Emotionally checked in

 

[Tassieboy]

We are probably cooked. Our defence is holding up well, but we can’t score or hit the side of a barn door.

But... we go in favourites against Sydney and North Melbourne. If we win them both we go 9-7 and who knows? Maybe one day it’ll click.

 

[Bjchan13]

Next 2 (Syd and nth) are must wins and should look to improve percentage. A win is possible but more likely to be a loss in Adelaide v crows. Suns after that are a must win. Port and dogs (bogey team) back to back at Marvel are must wins. Then need one of either freo in Perth or pies at the g. Leaves us with 13 wins and a finals spot. Doable.

 

[blitzer]

Next 2 (Syd and nth) are must wins and should look to improve percentage. A win is possible but more likely to be a loss in Adelaide v crows. Suns after that are a must win. Port and dogs (bogey team) back to back at Marvel are must wins. Then need one of either freo in Perth or pies at the g. Leaves us with 13 wins and a finals spot. Doable.

I must still be high from the win, that actually sounds doable.

 

[Old Stuckup]

Next 2 (Syd and nth) are must wins and should look to improve percentage. A win is possible but more likely to be a loss in Adelaide v crows. Suns after that are a must win. Port and dogs (bogey team) back to back at Marvel are must wins. Then need one of either freo in Perth or pies at the g. Leaves us with 13 wins and a finals spot. Doable.

If we win the next two we'll have sneakily won 5 of our last 6 heading into Friday night in Adelaide.

 

[Bjchan13]

I must still be high from the win, that actually sounds doable.

Its not the worst run home but still tough. If they do make it, they will have earnt it for sure. Tonight was the one that has kept the season alive.

 

[Bombers36]

8 games to go - we will be favorite to win 5 of them and if we can do that we'll end up with 12 wins and be in the mix for 7th or 8th spot;-

Sydney @ the G - win
North @ Marvel - win
Adelaide in Adelaide - loss
Gold Coast in Gold Coast - win
Port @ Marvel - win
Bulldogs @ Marvel - win
Freo in Freo - loss
Collingwood @ the G - loss

Would be great to come home hard like we did last year....

 

[Tassieboy]

A quick look suggests that 12 wins gives you a decent chance of making finals. It will likely come down to percentage.

Brisbane, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney and Richmond are fighting for the last 3 stops in the 8.

Sydney are finished if we beat them on Saturday.

Richmond have a poor percentage and have Collingwood, GWS, Port, Brisbane. So they are a real chance to miss out. They likely to need to win 6/9.

Brisbane, Fremantle and Port Adelaide are the unknowns.

Winning 12 games for us looks doable. 13 is probably a stretch

 

[JayJ20]

Port losing helps us massively. Adelaide losing brings them back in the top 8 calculations.

Could St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne win?

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Port losing helps us massively. Adelaide losing brings them back in the top 8 calculations.

Could St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne win?

St. Kilda and Melbourne are fair chances. Carlton will get put to the sword.

 

[Darealrath]

Don't think we match up well with the dogs for some reason. Can see us getting into a great position, blowing that, and having to win one of the last two.

 

[raskolnikov]

Swans and North looking a bit less like gimmes.

 

[JayJ20]

Swans and North looking a bit less like gimmes.

Yeah. Not going to be easy.

 

[Bjchan13]

Swans and North looking a bit less like gimmes.

We as a club have no gimmes unfortunately. Not even when we play Carlton. Both these wins would be huge. They are winnable

 

[JayJ20]

Carlton beating Fremantle is huge. Same with Bulldogs beating Port. And us beating GWS.

Great round.

 

[mad_monkey_j]

Jeez we've had a few results fall our way. Luckily we still have to play all the teams around us aiming to make 7-8, so it really is in our hands.

 

[fairbump_playon]

Never thought I would be grateful for a Carlton win.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

12-10 isn't going to get us in barring some huge upsets to teams above us. 13-9, and a healthy percentage increase to go along with it, is the minimum required to play finals from here IMO.

Ran the ladder predictor simply betting on the favourites for each game, all margins of 12, and it spat us out at 9th sitting on 12-10 with Freo and Brisbane a game clear.

 

[JT_the_Man]

And just like that percentage is the only thing standing between us and the 8.

It’s really in our hands, especially considering we play Port and Freo in the run home.

 

[raskolnikov]

Freo's run home is a bit of a mare. It's between us and Port IMO.

 

[Bjchan13]

Brisbanes run home isnt the easiest either. GWS, Port and Richmond away, Hawks in Tassie and Geelong at home.

 

[eDPS]

I’m sure a lot of us don’t have much confidence in us making it but I certainly have no confidence in Port and Freo either. 8th spot could be a team that falls into it and gets smashed in the first final

 

[blitzer]

I’m sure a lot of us don’t have much confidence in us making it but I certainly have no confidence in Port and Freo either. 8th spot could be a team that falls into it and gets smashed in the first final

Now that sounds like us. One day it would be nice to qualify for finals from a position of strength instead of just limping in.

 

[MattF185]

You can almost write Port off now, their run home is ridiculously hard. It’s basically between us and Freo IF we get the job done this weekend. BUT every week a curveball is thrown to make it even more interesting!

 

[Maddogm]

St. Kilda and Melbourne are fair chances. Carlton will get put to the sword.

This was my first unread post when I opened the thread. Sorry