Strategy The run home

[Nuggs Bunny]

This was my first unread post when I opened the thread. Sorry

I was hoping that would fade in to obscurity but thanks

 

[Halftimehero]

12-10 isn't going to get us in barring some huge upsets to teams above us. 13-9, and a healthy percentage increase to go along with it, is the minimum required to play finals from here IMO.

Ran the ladder predictor simply betting on the favourites for each game, all margins of 12, and it spat us out at 9th sitting on 12-10 with Freo and Brisbane a game clear.

12 wins will get 8th, possibly even 7th, Freo and Port have tricky draws to finish, I can’t seen any of Essendon, Port or Fremantle winning another 6 games or North, Sydney and the Dogs winning 7, one of us will make it.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

12 wins will get 8th, possibly even 7th, Freo and Port have tricky draws to finish, I can’t seen any of Essendo, Port or Fremantle winning another 6 games, one of us will make it.

I can see Freo with a probable chance of winning all but the games against Geelong and WCE in the run home, which would be 6 wins. Out of the WB, Hawks, Cats and WCE games they'll probably win 2 which, barring an upset, will close the door on our chances unless we overachieve ourselves. Even if they only win 5 games, we've still got about 8% to make up.

Sorry to sound pessimistic but those losses against St. Kilda and Sydney are going to haunt us.

 

[Halftimehero]

I can see Freo with a probable chance of winning all but the games against Geelong and WCE in the run home, which would be 6 wins. Out of the WB, Hawks, Cats and WCE games they'll probably win 2 which, barring an upset, will close the door on our chances unless we overachieve ourselves. Even if they only win 5 games, we've still got about 8% to make up.

Sorry to sound pessimistic but those losses against St. Kilda and Sydney are going to haunt us.

Fremantle have lost 5 of their last 8 games, have just lost to the bottom side at home without their best player, I can’t see them going anywhere near 6-2 for the next 8 matches.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Eh, this might be the kool-aid of Thursday night speaking but the only game I’ve written off as a loss is Collingwood.

Think we definitely win at least one of Freo/Adelaide.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Fremantle have lost 5 of their last 8 games, have just lost to the bottom side at home without their best player, I can’t see them going anywhere near 6-2 for the next 8 matches.

I can see them with a good chance beating all of the Saints, Swans, Hawks, Doggies, us and Port between now and the end of the year. Their away games are against mediocre sides and they're strong at home. Hogan will be back soon too. Carlton winning was an upset, the same thing happened against us last year. They'll come out swinging after that loss for sure.

 

[Halftimehero]

I can see them with a good chance beating all of the Saints, Swans, Hawks, Doggies, us and Port between now and the end of the year. Their away games are against mediocre sides and they're strong at home. Hogan will be back soon too. Carlton winning was an upset, the same thing happened against us last year. They'll come out swinging after that loss for sure.

Yeah they are a chance to win each of those games individually but the likelihood of winning them all is pretty low, nothing suggests to me the way they are playing is good enough to do so. They have lost their last two matches to 16th and 17th.

 

[Macca18]

Fremantle were in a similar position this time last year. Hanging around the middle section of the ladder with a mid-range win/loss ratio and talked up as a "chance" of playing finals ... before losing at home to then equal bottom Brisbane.

They went on to lose 7 of their last 9 games after that.

I would rather be playing them over there towards the end of the season when they are some chance of having packed up for the year compared to every other year when it's usually towards the start (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 are all examples!) when they are still playing for their season.

Sydney have won 2 out of 7 'away' from Sydney this year... a 5 point win in the last minute against North & a 3 goal win against Carlton (Marvel) when they were struggling under Bolton. Without Franklin and a few other of their key players, they are gettable. North were magnificent on the weekend but we have shown over the last 3 seasons we have their measure and can get the job done again.

Do I trust us to do any of the above? Of course not. But if I was an opposition outsider looking in I would be expecting this to pan out.

 

[blitzer]

I can see them with a good chance beating all of the Saints, Swans, Hawks, Doggies, us and Port between now and the end of the year. Their away games are against mediocre sides and they're strong at home. Hogan will be back soon too. Carlton winning was an upset, the same thing happened against us last year. They'll come out swinging after that loss for sure.

Dockers aren't that good. I mean if you are disappointed in our losses to Sydney and St.Kilda well Dockers have lost to all 3 of the bottom 3 sides in the comp. They will struggle to win more than 4 of their remaining games. Sure they have the potential to win any of those games you've listed but their chances of winning all of them is extremely close to 0% in my books.

I don't know if we will make finals but if we don't it won't be because Dockers or Port are too good, it will be because we screwed up our chances.

 

[TheWeapon]

The next 2 games are winnable but both Syd and North have hit great form recently. North in particular will be playing us as their grand final after their poor showing on good friday

 

[Lore]

Live AFL Ladder

If Port win they go past us. But if they flog Adelaide badly enough, we go past Adelaide.

If Freo beat West Coast they go past us. But if West Coast flog them that would be convenient for us, in dropping Freo's percentage...

Go West Coast, go Adelaide...?

 

[Vindicater]

Live AFL Ladder

If Port win they go past us. But if they flog Adelaide badly enough, we go past Adelaide.

If Freo beat West Coast they go past us. But if West Coast flog them that would be convenient for us, in dropping Freo's percentage...

Go West Coast, go Adelaide...?

Yep go West Coast and Adelaide.

We can gain a match on Adelaide when we beat them

 

[eth-dog]

Live AFL Ladder

If Port win they go past us. But if they flog Adelaide badly enough, we go past Adelaide.

If Freo beat West Coast they go past us. But if West Coast flog them that would be convenient for us, in dropping Freo's percentage...

Go West Coast, go Adelaide...?

Yeah Adelaide would need to lose by around 80-100 for us to pass them. Best thing for us within expectations would be Adelaide and West Coast to win by 6-ish goals

 

[Lore]

Yeah Adelaide would need to lose by around 80-100 for us to pass them. Best thing for us within expectations would be Adelaide and West Coast to win by 6-ish goals

Start of the game that link was saying Port by 90 points. So yeah, an absolute flogging would be required to make Port winning palatable.

 

[Halftimehero]

I can see them with a good chance beating all of the Saints, Swans, Hawks, Doggies, us and Port between now and the end of the year. Their away games are against mediocre sides and they're strong at home. Hogan will be back soon too. Carlton winning was an upset, the same thing happened against us last year. They'll come out swinging after that loss for sure.

How do you see their chances now? They didn’t “come out swinging” as you suggested.
They are rubbish!

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

How do you see their chances now? They didn’t “come out swinging” as you suggested.
They are rubbish!

Did you bookmark that argument lol?

 

[JT_the_Man]

Freo done for the year, reckon we’ll beat them even up there.

 

[JayJ20]

Well that’s Fremantle done. Richmond most likely make it from here. Adelaide and Brisbane come into the picture.

 

[vast]

Way too early to right Freo off completely. We could easily drop the game against north and if they beat the Hawks they could be back on track

 

[JayJ20]

Way too early to right Freo off completely. We could easily drop the game against north and if they beat the Hawks they could be back on track

They could beat Hawthorn, but they never do. I've never seen a side so historically weak against another. Percentage was in their favour. Now that it is wiped, they'll be up against it IMO. This is the time of the year they usually start the slide.

 

[vast]

They could beat Hawthorn, but they never do. I've never seen a side so historically weak against another. Percentage was in their favour. Now that it is wiped, they'll be up against it IMO. This is the time of the year they usually start the slide.

Port dont beat geelong either.... anything can happen. We are no certainty to beat north or the doggies. That puts freo ahead of us if they beat us comfortably.

 

[Halftimehero]

Port dont beat geelong either.... anything can happen. We are no certainty to beat north or the doggies. That puts freo ahead of us if they beat us comfortably.

Freo are cooked, they’ve lost 6 of their last 9, got absolutely belted last night and lost their last two before that to 16 and 17th, they are rubbish.

 

[JayJ20]

Port dont beat geelong either.... anything can happen. We are no certainty to beat north or the doggies. That puts freo ahead of us if they beat us comfortably.

You’re right. They could win. I personally believe they are finished.

As for North, they’re going to be tough to beat, but I am most worried about Bulldogs.

 

[Bombers36]

As long as we can beat one of the Adelaide sides (we play them both) we should make the 8. But we cant afford to drop the game against North next week ....
Run home I have us penciled in for 5 more wins for a total of 13 wins which should see us play finals;-

North WIN
Adelaide (in Adelaide) LOSS
Gold Coast WIN
Port WIN
Bulldogs WIN
Freo (in Freo) LOSS
Collingwood WIN


I really believe we can beat Collingwood given we match up so well against them and only went down by 4 points on Anzac day when there was some questionable umpiring. If we can do that in the last round then we will have momentum going into the finals and I dont think there would be to many sides that would want to play us...Comon Bombers...!!

 

[raskolnikov]

Just from a purely selfish point of view I would like Brisbane to finish 5th and us 8th (or 6th and 7th).