Fixture The Run Home

[Spirit Level]

Would we not play Geelong at marvel?

No chance.

2 elimination finals are likely to be outside Victoria so no competition for the MCG

Have the dates for the finals series been released yet? I can't see them anywhere. I'd assume we'd get a few Thursday night finals this year

 

[kp junior]

No chance.

2 elimination finals are likely to be outside Victoria so no competition for the MCG

Have the dates for the finals series been released yet? I can't see them anywhere. I'd assume we'd get a few Thursday night finals this year

Wow. Given our ridiculous record in Victoria this year, and Geelong’s sketchy (I think) record at theG - we’d be a massive chance in that game, and then a home prelim


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[ozzie69]

Would we not play Geelong at marvel?

Then when we win they will claim it wasn't legit because Marvel isn't their home ground.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Wow. Given our ridiculous record in Victoria this year, and Geelong’s sketchy (I think) record at theG - we’d be a massive chance in that game, and then a home prelim


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They're 4/5 at the G this year I'm afraid (and 5/6 there last year)

 

[FreoRicci]

Would we not play Geelong at marvel?

Geelong would request Geelong first, MCG distant second. Marvel wouldn’t even be in their preference

 

[Van_Dyke]

Ideal results for the next 2 rounds:

View attachment 1471596

please, i'll raise you one


(no mention of the results that lead to this)

 

[Boomer93]

please, i'll raise you one
View attachment 1471992

(no mention of the results that lead to this)

The thing is saints winning and carlton winning aren't even that crazy. Although now with cripps out on top of their injuries Carlton are a bit of a lost cause.

 

[gungho]

please, i'll raise you one
View attachment 1471992

(no mention of the results that lead to this)

Under this senario we'd most likely play Geelong in the Grand final if we made it. It would be our best hope of wining a premiership. The stars would have to somehow align. Not completely impossible at least.

 

[Purple Jesus]

please, i'll raise you one
View attachment 1471992

(no mention of the results that lead to this)

I prefer Carlton missing the 8

 

[Van_Dyke]

I prefer Carlton missing the 8

fair, but i would reluctantly take an extra home final with them getting the chance to be smashed week 1

 

[Purple Jesus]

fair, but i would reluctantly take an extra home final with them getting the chance to be smashed week 1

Usually so would I but we play better away this year

 

[Taylor]

I wonder how the lead up to a qualifying final would differ playing at home compared to flying out a couple of days prior and being in the heart of the opposition's town without the attention on you.

If the team won away, into a prelim, most of that hype would have flashed into their world during the first week where there isn't a game. The excitement can be enjoyed and then settle into preparing for a preliminary final.

I'd like to win a home qualifying final against a side that isn't comfortable travelling, but hosting the prelim is far more valuable to me.

 

[Madas]

I wonder how the lead up to a qualifying final would differ playing at home compared to flying out a couple of days prior and being in the heart of the opposition's town without the attention on you.

If the team won away, into a prelim, most of that hype would have flashed into their world during the first week where there isn't a game. The excitement can be enjoyed and then settle into preparing for a preliminary final.

I'd like to win a home qualifying final against a side that isn't comfortable travelling, but hosting the prelim is far more valuable to me.

I like the home Prelim too
Means We don’t have to stay in Melbourne for the week

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

So by my understanding, assuming we win both games, our path to the top 4 is one of the following in order of liklihood (IMO):

• Sydney lose 1
• Collingwood lose 2
• One of Brisbane and Melbourne lose this weekend but the one who loses wins in round 23
• Brisbane and Melbourne both lose this weekend

 

[Van_Dyke]

So by my understanding, assuming we win both games, our path to the top 4 is one of the following in order of liklihood (IMO):

• Sydney lose 1
• Collingwood lose 2
• Brisbane and Melbourne both lose this weekend

add on to the brisbane/melbourne one, we need both of them to lose 1 game if we're 'relying' on them - one of them winning this week is acceptable if they lose to the other the week after (i.e. if Brisbane loses to the Saints, Melbourne beats Carlton and Brisbane beat Melbourne and we get business done we'll be in the 4).

 

[Van_Dyke]

So by my understanding, assuming we win both games, our path to the top 4 is one of the following in order of liklihood (IMO):

• Sydney lose 1
• Collingwood lose 2
• Brisbane and Melbourne both lose this weekend

add on to the brisbane/melbourne one, we need both of them to lose 1 game if we're 'relying' on them - one of them winning this week is acceptable if they lose to the other the week after (i.e. if Brisbane loses to the Saints, Melbourne beats Carlton and Brisbane beat Melbourne).

but yes go st kilda, go carlton and for this week go collingwood and potentially go melbourne or brisbane. and if you excuse me i'll be sick.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

add on to the brisbane/melbourne one, we need both of them to lose 1 game if we're 'relying' on them - one of them winning this week is acceptable if they lose to the other the week after (i.e. if Brisbane loses to the Saints, Melbourne beats Carlton and Brisbane beat Melbourne and we get business done we'll be in the 4).

Fixed (I think)

 

[Taylor]

So by my understanding, assuming we win both games, our path to the top 4 is one of the following in order of liklihood (IMO):

• Sydney lose 1
• Collingwood lose 2
• Brisbane and Melbourne both lose this weekend

Or whichever of Brisbane or Melbourne that win next week when they play, lose this weekend. Assuming Freo get two wins.

Want to finish 1st? Too bad, we can't beat 64 points.
Want to finish 2nd? Collingwood can't win another game + Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney can only win one game each
Want to finish 3rd?
Collingwood win a game and Melbourne/Brisbane/Sydney can only win one game each, OR
Collingwood don't win another game and only one of Melbourne/Brisbane/Sydney win two games
Want to finish 4th? Collingwood win one or more games, one of Brisbane/Melbourne/Sydney win two games

 

[Van_Dyke]

Fixed (I think)

think that's all the scenarios i've come up with through my long studies with the ladder predictor

 

[Square Peg]

Or whichever of Brisbane or Melbourne that win next week when they play, lose this weekend. Assuming Freo get two wins.

Want to finish 1st? Too bad, we can't beat 64 points.
Want to finish 2nd? Collingwood can't win another game + Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney can only win one game each
Want to finish 3rd?
Collingwood win a game and Melbourne/Brisbane/Sydney can only win one game each, OR
Collingwood don't win another game and only one of Melbourne/Brisbane/Sydney win two games
Want to finish 4th? Collingwood win one or more games, one of Brisbane/Melbourne/Sydney win two games

My tea leaf reading says third

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

My tea leaf reading says third

My preference is to finish 4th and play Geelong at the G, I'd just about have that as a more likely win then say 5th and the Dogs or Carlton at home.

 

[Square Peg]

My preference is to finish 4th and play Geelong at the G, I'd just about have that as a more likely win then say 5th and the Dogs or Carlton at home.

You can't always get what you want.
I've got to stop getting ahead of myself but somehow the following scenario plays out in my head over and over
We finish third. Lose the QF to Sydney
Win the semifinal at home
Get a prelim at the G against whichever Vic team won the other QF and have a red hot chance against any of them!

 

[Taylor]

Want to finish 2nd? Collingwood can't win another game + Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney can only win one game each

Just on this.
Sydney has to lose to St Kilda in round 23 for this to work.
Carlton has to beat Collingwood in round 23 for this to work.

Either;
Carlton beat Melbourne, Brisbane beat St Kilda and then Melbourne beat Brisbane the next week
or
Melbourne beat Carlton, St Kilda beat Brisbane and then Brisbane beat Melbourne the next week

This isn't impossible.

 

[Madas]

Oh my head

I had planned on sitting in a boat , surfing and fishing in Exmouth from Mid September.

Now I’m wondering how the hell I’m going to get to Melbourne for all this action

Option A seemed so much simpler

 

[ignoramus]

Now I’m wondering how the hell I’m going to get to Melbourne for all this action

This is the hard bit. I threw the GF priority onto my membership for this year on a whim (mostly to make sure it was available to me for next year), so very likely to have a sub-$250 ticket, but getting flights etc. for less than a few grand is unlikely.