Prediction The Run Home

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hellfire

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 21, 2007
9,098
5,734
Vic
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
FC Barcelona
Only issue with this video is it’s preempted. Should’ve waited until the end of the season so we can add in the rest of the thrillers we’ll win!
Yeah, it will look much better with the last one at around 5:30pm on the 24th of September.
 

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anshell

Premiership Player
Jan 10, 2008
4,790
5,640
Hobart
AFL Club
Collingwood
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manchester united
Kane cornes saying on footy classified were out in straight sets if we make top 4. Lol absolute fool.

I think we win 3 out of the next 4 and make top 4 but it could come at the cost of a belting from maybe Melbourne which will wake us up in time for finals. We've become a bit too comfortable relying on comebacks. Sydney and Carlton don't worry me.
Kane Cornes never has a good word to say about anyone or anything,certainly not the Pies.He reminds me of some posters here,but I won’t say who.😉
 

Carringbush2010

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
15,574
9,403
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Pines Football Club
Why is he a fool? On current form we will be lucky to make top 4. We are just getting by against bottom teams, still lack serious talent. An objective view is we aren’t playing great, just scraping wins against bottom teams, and our list is certainly on paper not top 4. We’ve done well to hopefully make finals, and you’ve got to be in it to win it. But objectively we aren’t one of the best teams, and one of them generally ends up winning. If we put ourselves in finals contention sure, anything can happen. We’d have to improve our current form however. Midfield getting soundly best and lack of talls. It’s still an issue. Our percentage is an indicator of all this.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with this.

We certainly are not top 4 from a personnel perspective.

I'm certain that the panel will be already happy with game and player and culture development in its first year. Anything more like making finals / finals win is a bonus in their eyes, their success view is more long term.

IF we do the highly improbable and lift the cup as early as this year, it won't be because we the top team in it.

Personally I'm not yet ready to have higher expectations this early into a redevelopment. I'm more looking to (now and earlier than expected) a finals push next year and hopefully flag contention following that. Should our improvement be linear which is not always the case.
 

PieLebo87

Hall of Famer
Sep 14, 2005
14,640
12,877
Endeavour Hills
AFL Club
Collingwood
You still don't get it do you?

HEART and THE TEAM win GF's.

Talent and skill will get you there but if the opposition has unshakeable desire and belief in themselves you are in trouble.

I would be astonished if we make the big dance this year but your dismissal of underdog teams is superficial thinking.

What did you think of the doggies chances in '16???

If you didn't understand the 1958 GF reference then you have no idea of your own teams history and the lessons it has learnt.

Oh no my friend 1970 taught me irrevocably that the best team is NEVER a certainty.
Interesting you mention 1958 and 1970. In no way am I comparing us to Richmond 2017, but prior to their 3 flags, they’d finished 2017 in 3rd (15-7) with a percentage of 116% v Adelaide’s 136% on top of the ladder.

They’d finished 13th the year before, after being 5th in 2015. Taking a look at their 22 in that GF seeing someone like Cotchin as captain, you just thought to yourself this guy surely can’t be deemed a premiership captain ahead of Walker. Dusty was the only thing that scared me about that team.

Here’s their GF team and their age at the time:

599588FD-0CAD-4289-8836-D514030FE94A.jpeg


Why can’t we be Richmond of 2017? I don’t mind if we don’t go on and win 3 flags in 4 years either!
 

jonbe54

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 18, 2009
19,533
15,121
Rural paradise
AFL Club
Collingwood
Interesting you mention 1958 and 1970. In no way am I comparing us to Richmond 2017, but prior to their 3 flags, they’d finished 2017 in 3rd (15-7) with a percentage of 116% v Adelaide’s 136% on top of the ladder.

They’d finished 13th the year before, after being 5th in 2015. Taking a look at their 22 in that GF seeing someone like Cotchin as captain, you just thought to yourself this guy surely can’t be deemed a premiership captain ahead of Walker. Dusty was the only thing that scared me about that team.

Here’s their GF team and their age at the time:

View attachment 1457226

Why can’t we be Richmond of 2017? I don’t mind if we don’t go on and win 3 flags in 4 years either!
Fine work Pie and I float my boat along with yours on the flags.
 

Robroy22

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 24, 2012
8,104
14,253
Jindabyne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Central Broken Hill (Magpies)
Interesting you mention 1958 and 1970. In no way am I comparing us to Richmond 2017, but prior to their 3 flags, they’d finished 2017 in 3rd (15-7) with a percentage of 116% v Adelaide’s 136% on top of the ladder.

They’d finished 13th the year before, after being 5th in 2015. Taking a look at their 22 in that GF seeing someone like Cotchin as captain, you just thought to yourself this guy surely can’t be deemed a premiership captain ahead of Walker. Dusty was the only thing that scared me about that team.

Here’s their GF team and their age at the time:

View attachment 1457226

Why can’t we be Richmond of 2017? I don’t mind if we don’t go on and win 3 flags in 4 years either!


We can't be the Richmond of 2017 for the simple reason that most of their core GF players played EVERY game that year. We've already lost the equivalent of Rance (Roughead to injury and now retirement), Astbury (Keane retired without replacement), Martin (JDG will be lucky to play 3/4 of this seasons games) Cotchin (a combination of Jamie Elliot and Adam's missed games) and Nankervis (Grundy has been gone for 15 weeks).
I love the romance of your comparison but Richmond's success in 2017 was largely built on confidence and momentum built on this unbelievably lucky continuity of players.
 

migz

Team Captain
May 29, 2010
572
577
AFL Club
Collingwood
Unfortunately, I have to agree with this.

We certainly are not top 4 from a personnel perspective.

I'm certain that the panel will be already happy with game and player and culture development in its first year. Anything more like making finals / finals win is a bonus in their eyes, their success view is more long term.

IF we do the highly improbable and lift the cup as early as this year, it won't be because we the top team in it.

Personally I'm not yet ready to have higher expectations this early into a redevelopment. I'm more looking to (now and earlier than expected) a finals push next year and hopefully flag contention following that. Should our improvement be linear which is not always the case.
Nothing wrong with having realistic expectations but who said the best team always wins it? We were nowhere the best team in 2018 and almost pinched it.

It's up to us to take our chances and right now we're in the mix, so as much as there are some issues we need to fix, im optimistic we could give top 4 a shake provided we do address them. There's absolutely no guarantee we'll have a better season next year or that the competition will be as even so why not grasp the opportunity now?
 

PieLebo87

Hall of Famer
Sep 14, 2005
14,640
12,877
Endeavour Hills
AFL Club
Collingwood
We can't be the Richmond of 2017 for the simple reason that most of their core GF players played EVERY game that year. We've already lost the equivalent of Rance (Roughead to injury and now retirement), Astbury (Keane retired without replacement), Martin (JDG will be lucky to play 3/4 of this seasons games) Cotchin (a combination of Jamie Elliot and Adam's missed games) and Nankervis (Grundy has been gone for 15 weeks).
I love the romance of your comparison but Richmond's success in 2017 was largely built on confidence and momentum built on this unbelievably lucky continuity of players.
Our biggest challenge is absolutely playing Hawkins/Cameron or Daniher/Hipwood with Murphy/Moore in September. My nightmare is Curnow/Mackay kicking 10 between them against us in a final. The Dean injuries hurt post Roughead’s retirement, and we continue to concede bags to KPFs - it’ll likely be our undoing in September.

In saying that, if the stars can align (🙏🏼) and Grundy re-enters the fray and shows 2018 form, JDG comes back and provides that missing grunt for us in the midfield, it’ll mean we’re getting more first use of the footy out of the midfield and minimises any exposure of what’s lacking for us in the backline. I think something that’s made us look a lot better this season is Fly’s better use of Cameron and Cox in the defensive side of the field as I don’t remember seeing so many goal-saving marks in our d50 from a Collingwood ruckman as I have in 2022.

Ideally, your best players are playing full seasons, but in saying that, we’ve only had 6 (Daicos x2, Lipinski, Crisp, Sidey and Noble) play every game, but we’ve recently had Adams rest for 2 weeks, Maynard may be able to rest his body up for 1-2 weeks now and Grundy/JDG head into September from extended breaks, so should aim to get runs into the legs over the last few H&A games and hit the ground running in finals fresh as daisies.

It’ll take a miracle, and it’s very unlikely we pull it off, but stranger things have happened in football, and Collingwood wouldn’t be undeserving if they were the 2022 premiers.
 

Mkcaptain

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 2, 2011
10,566
17,711
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Bushrangers
Both sides could be fighting for a top 4 spot, it could be as many as 90,000 if they picked a Friday night!
So true. Collingwood vs Essendon Rd 23 2019 on the Friday night got 85,000. Only issue is that I believe Collingwood plays Sydney on the Sunday the week before. Goes to show how pointless the rolling fixture was.
 

The Phantom

Border Collie-wood
Oct 5, 2004
405
623
Victoria
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Col-ling-wooood!
Dare to dream for a moment.

Imagine the cheer when big Mason Cox lifts the premiership cup high.

Now that’s a story.
 

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Carringbush2010

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
15,574
9,403
Perth
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Collingwood
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Pines Football Club
Nothing wrong with having realistic expectations but who said the best team always wins it? We were nowhere the best team in 2018 and almost pinched it.

It's up to us to take our chances and right now we're in the mix, so as much as there are some issues we need to fix, im optimistic we could give top 4 a shake provided we do address them. There's absolutely no guarantee we'll have a better season next year or that the competition will be as even so why not grasp the opportunity now?
I never suggested that only the best team wins it, it does give more certainty however.

And just like 2018 we may be able to 'pinch' one, seems obvious the FD has a view of this now next 18 months 2 years. I'd rather us not trying to 'pinch' one but rather build a team that is in contention for a 3-5 year stint like the properly run clubs do. ala rich - hawth.

Already we've got the culture right but we won't be able to trade / draft to add to lists like other clubs.

It's too late for that ideal now as the last FD and admin left us in a hole.
 

ipswichpies

Premiership Player
Jul 6, 2011
3,222
2,044
queensland
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Crystal Palace
I see the Pies making the top 4 I think there a couple of teams who I think are good things to make the top 4 Geelong will and I think Lions also.
The Dees have Brisbane in Brisbane in the last rd they also have Freo in Perth this week and then us next weekand believe me the way they are going they could lose all 3.
I went and watched The Lions v Suns last weekend and the Suns pushed them all the way only really sealing in the last 5mins but it was a good workout for them and will stand them in good stead.
I think if we had 1 more key defender and 1 more big mid we would go all the way I am sure of this,another thing is we generally play well in Sydney and we usually travel well Sydney I see as 50 50 game and from what I seen I do not fear them.

How many upsets have we seen recently,4 wks ago I feared Richmond more than anybody and that included the Cats but they won,t make the finals but according to the bookies they have a better chance than we do to win the flag and if they make the finals I think that is true they could win from 8th but they are the only ones. Possibly the Dogs as well could do it but I am not so worried about the Bullies.
As I say I Melbourne are really struggling I think the Jackson thing is really hurting them,after 10 rds I thought we were all playing for 2nd they looked a shooin to me but like us in 2011 I think they have hit the wall.

This year is maybe a yr too soon for us but from next year we will be ready to go and as I say if we had 1 extra kpd and a mid we would take the whole kit and caboodle I am certain of this and we will not die wondering this year either anyone who beats us will have to beat us we will not be laying any time soon as our last 8 wks have shown. GO THE PIES.
 
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September Action

Premiership Player
Jun 2, 2008
3,255
3,387
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
I like the idea this year is a free hit. Any outcome from here is a bonus, so we can play/watch with some abandon. Maybe Hawks circa 2008 if we’re supremely lucky - tho they had a rampaging young Buddy in that finals series and I fear we’re a key forward short.
But so often with our big club, expectation becomes stifling. This year we have the luxury of no expectation. Maybe we’ll use it. Imagine banking one against the tide and what that could do for future campaigns…
 

augie

Club Legend
Feb 15, 2006
1,082
1,478
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
I've been the pessimist the past 4 weeks, expecting us to drop a game just because it feels like we have to. But once the game gets going my pessimism disappears and I just expect us to pull something out of somewhere. So I don't expect us to win our next 4, nor do I expect us to win our three finals. But as each game gets going I'll start to believe.

This has been my favourite year of being a pies supporter. On field expectations low and ambivalent about the off field. But the club seems to be such a happy, positive place to be. We have the smartest coaching group in the competition. And we just keep winning against the odds. It is the American sports movie every week.
 

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