Analysis The run home

[00Stinger]

There has to be a point where you're just not that good the lower you finish and 3rd seems to be that. 4th also travels to play first in the qualifying final and then 2nd at home even if they win the semi

I reckon there have been a few times that 4th has rolled 1st in the qualifying final though

Plus off top of my head I reckon 2nd or 3rd placed teams would win the GF more than the top team

But without going through all of the past results I wouldn't really have a clue and just be guessing

 

[Topkent]

I reckon there have been a few times that 4th has rolled 1st in the qualifying final though

Plus off top of my head I reckon 2nd or 3rd placed teams would win the GF more than the top team

But without going through all of the past results I wouldn't really have a clue and just be guessing

They have, and then the 4th team inevitably gets rolled in a prelim or Granny because they just aren't good enough, that why the finish 4th

Perfect example us, we can beat Collingwood and then lose to GWS and the cats the next 2 games because we aren't that good

 

[schmuttt]

It’s a pretty crazy stat since the top 8 system came into effect in 2000 only 7 of the teams that finished top won the GF, even with the last two years the top team winning it all. Probably reflects how even the AFL comp is tbh

 

[CTHORANGE]

So far at the MCG we have won 7 and lost 1. Away from the MCG we've won 3 and lost 5. Is this an anomaly that will sort itself out by seasons end, or have we fixed our MCG form this year? Some big tests coming up.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

So far at the MCG we have won 7 and lost 1. Away from the MCG we've won 3 and lost 5. Is this an anomaly that will sort itself out by seasons end, or have we fixed our MCG form this year? Some big tests coming up.

I feel like the weather has been quite poor in all of our away losses. Not sure how much it’s actually affected the result but unfortunate timing, we’ve had better conditions at the MCG typically. I can’t remember what it was like against Freo

 

[schmuttt]

I feel like the weather has been quite poor in all of our away losses. Not sure how much it’s actually affected the result but unfortunate timing, we’ve had better conditions at the MCG typically. I can’t remember what it was like against Freo

I reckon we’ve been a poor wet weather team the entire time under Goody. Last good win I can remember in the wet was like Richmond 2015?

 

[Tulip]

I don't think 23 years of this system is long enough to have true statistical certainty given all the home ground permutations. At the end of the day, as outlined, it comes down to how good you are. There's no reason why a 4th place team can't win and a 3rd place team can, particularly with the MCG as a factor if we do finish 4th, but its probably unusual for 1st and 4th to be G-based teams and 2nd and 3rd to be interstate.

 

[00Stinger]

Lol at Essendon fans complaining about playing there this week

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[Gysberts2Bate]

If we had to play the Cats at Karshitnia Park this year when a) it was a playoff between the two most recent premiers and b) our home match attendances have been just as good as Essendon’s for the last two years, then they can suck shit. Talk about entitlement.

 

[Demon13304]

Lol at Essendon fans complaining about playing there this week

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I don't really care that we go down there, it's their home ground after all. It's more that we go down there a lotttt more than they come up here to play us at the MCG

I think that there's a lot of fixture quirks and unevenness to the point where every team gets their pros and cons. But its still annoying to think about lol

Plus we don't really know what a modern day good Melbourne vs good Geelong crowd at the MCG looks like cos it just hasn't happened.
2021 was covid affected and Round 1, 2018 is the closest we'll get and there was 54k.

 

[Bluelegs]

I don't really care that we go down there, it's their home ground after all. It's more that we go down there a lotttt more than they come up here to play us at the MCG

I think that there's a lot of fixture quirks and unevenness to the point where every team gets their pros and cons. But its still annoying to think about lol

Plus we don't really know what a modern day good Melbourne vs good Geelong crowd at the MCG looks like cos it just hasn't happened.
2021 was covid affected and Round 1, 2018 is the closest we'll get and there was 54k.

We basically pay the tax for bigger vic sides not to play there.

 

[jhong]

Didn’t this particular fixture at Geelong start when we were shit and in exchange for playing down there we only played them once each season ? . Anyway Bombers can EAD .

 

[schmuttt]

Brilliant weekend results wise. If lions beat cats next week it’s going to take one hell of a choke to miss the 4.

 

[Topkent]

Brilliant weekend results wise. If lions beat cats next week it’s going to take one hell of a choke to miss the 4.

Mate if we just scrape into the 4 it's game over anyway. We need to hit the finals in peak form or its gonna be the same as last year

 

[schmuttt]

Mate if we just scrape into the 4 it's game over anyway. We need to hit the finals in peak form or its gonna be the same as last year

I know but it’s fun to analyse lol

 

[Topkent]

I know but it’s fun to analyse lol

Analyse what could go right to help us drag down Port and get second

 

[schmuttt]

Analyse what could go right to help us drag down Port and get second

Extremely difficult but not impossible.

Pies H
Crows H
Cats A
GWS H
Freo A
Tigers H

Reckon Pies and Cats get them, then we need them to drop one more. Crows flogged them earlier this year and GWS don’t fear any team. This is also assuming we win all our games, be tough but we will enter each game as favourites.

 

[Topkent]

Extremely difficult but not impossible.

Pies H
Crows H
Cats A
GWS H
Freo A
Tigers H

Reckon Pies and Cats get them, then we need them to drop one more. Crows flogged them earlier this year and GWS don’t fear any team. This is also assuming we win all our games, be tough but we will enter each game as favourites.

Tell you what if they drop 3 of those and we win all of them, put the house on us winning the first final against them. Saw some stat a little while ago that the flag team always hits September with like only one loss in the last 6 HnA or something like that.

 

[schmuttt]

Tell you what if they drop 3 of those and we win all of them, put the house on us winning the first final against them. Saw some stat a little while ago that the flag team always hits September with like only one loss in the last 6 HnA or something like that.

Also need lions to drop one game, but that’s also likely as they play the pies at marvel in round 23.

 

[Topkent]

Also need lions to drop one game, but that’s also likely as they play the pies at marvel in round 23.

Geez didn't take much for me to forget about those flogs

 

[schmuttt]

Geez didn't take much for me to forget about those flogs

Supporting Geelong against them next week, would rather focus on us climbing the ladder than worrying about the teams below us.

 

[Jamurp]

Geelong our biggest threat for our top 4 hopes, game a half behind us. They play Brisbane at the Gabba next week, lose that and we beat the Crows, I reckon we’ll be okay.

Not totally convinced after last night, but hopefully it kick starts something in this side with Oliver to come back in.

 

[Bluelegs]

Geelong our biggest threat for our top 4 hopes, game a half behind us. They play Brisbane at the Gabba next week, lose that and we beat the Crows, I reckon we’ll be okay.

Not totally convinced after last night, but hopefully it kick starts something in this side with Oliver to come back in.

Don't see them beating Brisbane at home. They're still pretty flaky away from Geelong.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Don't see them beating Brisbane at home. They're still pretty flaky away from Geelong.

Port are real shaky imo. Tough run coming up. Banged up players. Their spot is gettable. If Lions beat us, I reckon Lions would have grabbed 2nd. Still might. I think Port peaked too early. Won games they had no right to. Bit like Pies last year. They've done better than most expected, but I just don't see them as a massive threat. Cats are main threat to Pies this year.

 

[mrmonkey]

Obviously would rather storm into top 4 rather than scrape in but I still think getting there is super important knowing that we will get Fritsch back for finals. Oliver is a big out but we've been managing pretty well without him, Fritsch on the other hand is much harder hole to fill imo. Hopefully Melksham gains some confidence from Friday night and fills that void. Would love to see this team with Oliver back in the guts and a forward line with more Trac in it and Fritsch could be quite dangerous.