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With only three rounds to go until the finals, the race for the top five is heating up. Two teams have secured spots in the finals but another five are fighting for the final three remaining spots. Let’s have a look at the run home and see where the teams are going to finish up at the end of Round 21.
1st – Southern Dragons, Played 18, Won 13, Lost 5, 52 points, 110.99%
Round 19 vs East Side Hawks (home)
Round 20 vs West Coast Wonders (away)
Round 21 vs Mod Squad (home)
The Dragons sit atop of the ladder, two games and percentage clear after what has been a fairly impressive year to date. Their run home is reasonably tricky with their final three games against opponents who are all located within the top five. However, the Dragons are first and with two games at home, they are in the strongest position to finish on top of the ladder. Their toughest game looks to be against the East Side Hawks in Round 19. The Hawks were on a charge of late until they came undone against the Furies in the previous round but East Side will still prove to be tough to beat. The Dragons then face a horribly out-of-form Wonders side in an away fixture followed by an up-and-down Mod Squad in the final round at Dragon Island.
You would think the Dragons would be good enough to win all three games but nothing is set in stone in fantasy football and there still may be a few surprises left in the season.
Predicted Finish: 1st
2nd – Fighting Furies, Played 18, Won 11, Lost 7, 44 points, 102.73%
Round 19 vs West Coast Wonders (home)
Round 20 vs Mod Squad (away)
Round 21 vs Mount Buller Demons (home)
The run home for the Furies is fairly good with the Punt Road boys facing two top five sides in their final three matches. Round 19 will be a crucial fixture, with the Furies taking on the Wonders in a game which will go a fair way to determining who finishes second. A win for the Furies will take them two games ahead of third while a loss will drop them to third place due to an inferior percentage. They then face the Mods Squad away before hosting the Demons in Round 21. Should the Furies win their game against the Wonders they would only need to win one more to finish second. However, should they lose to the Wonders they will need to win their last two and hope the Wonders lose at least one game before the end of the season.
To win the minor premiership, the Furies would need to win all three of their final matches and hope the Dragons slip up twice, maybe even three times to take top spot, however that would appear unlikely.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
3rd – West Coast Wonders, Played 18, Won 10, Lost 8, 40 points, 105.46%
Round 19 vs Fighting Furies (away)
Round 20 vs Southern Dragons (home)
Round 21 vs Baghdad Bombers (away)
The Wonders have one of the worst runs home, facing the top two sides in the next two matches. Lose both of those and they will have an even win-loss record and a percentage that will likely be not much more then 100%. That would make their Round 21 clash against the Bombers very, very interesting and could see both sides squabbling over fifth place.
However, a win against either of those two top sides would see the Wonders challenge the Furies for second place and a home final for week one of the finals series. Winning all three would secure them second spot and maybe even first if the Dragons don’t win for the rest of the home and away season. But, with the form of those sides around them, the Wonders will be hard pressed to finish in the top three and they’ll need to turn their form around if they want to go deep into the finals series.
Predicted Finish: 4th
4th – East Side Hawks, Played 18, Won 10, Lost 8, 36 points (four penalty points), 112.63%
Round 19 vs Southern Dragons (away)
Round 20 vs Baghdad Bombers (home)
Round 21 vs Geelong Gumbies (away)
East Side’s runs home starts with the top of the ladder Dragons over at Dragon Island, a place which hasn’t proved fruitful for the travelling teams this season. The Hawks' good form ended last round thanks to the Furies but they were running red hot before that and jumped from last place to fourth after a streak of wins so the Dragons will need to be on their game as the Hawks will be out to make amends. After that, the Hawks face Baghdad and Geelong, two sides that will be hopeful of replacing them in the five.
East Side should be able to win their last two which will put them in a strong position to take third with the good run home. If they can beat the Dragons they can finish second but only if the Furies struggle in the run home. The Hawks will definitely rue losing those four points earlier in the season.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
5th – Mod Squad, Played 18, Won 8, Lost 10, 32 points, 100.24%
Round 19 vs Mount Buller Demons (home)
Round 20 vs Fighting Furies (home)
Round 21 vs Southern Dragons (away)
Round 19 is a must win for the Mods as they have a stiff run home, facing the Furies and then the Dragons in consecutive matches. With Baghdad having a slightly easier run home, the Mods must beat the Demons and then one of the Dragons or the Furies to give themselves the best chance at making the finals. If they can do that, they should be able to finish in the five and maybe even overtake the Wonders as they have a tough draw.
However, a loss to the Demons will leave 5th spot wide open and the men in blue and green may need to win their final two to make the five and even that may not guarantee them a spot in the finals. The game against Mount Buller will prove a catalyst for the Mods and will be pivotal in determining if they make the finals and if they do, what type of role they will play.
Predicted Finish: 6th
6th – Baghdad Bombers, Played 18, Won 8, Lost 10, 29 points (3 penalty points), 92.70%
Round 19 vs Geelong Gumbies (home)
Round 20 vs East Side Hawks (away)
Round 21 vs West Coast Wonders (home)
Round 19 almost shapes as an elimination final for the Bombers. A win and they will still be in contention for the finals. A loss and they may need to win their final two games to have a crack at playing in September and they will have to rely on results going their way.
The last two rounds sees them face East Side Hawks and West Coast Wonders. The Hawks could potentially be coming off losses to the Furies and Dragons so Round 20 seems to be the optimum time for the Bombers to grab an upset win. The Wonders’ poor form of late could also come into the Bombers favour with the Wonders form slipping by the week and has seen them go from top to a distant third. If they are good enough, Baghdad could win all three of the final games and surprise everyone come finals time.
Predicted Finish: 5th
7th – Geelong Gumbies, Played 18, Won 7, Lost 11, 25 points (three penalty points), 89.76%
Round 19 vs Baghdad Bombers (away)
Round 20 vs Mount Buller Demons (away)
Round 21 vs East Side Hawks (home)
Geelong face the toughest task of any side to make the finals. They must win all three of their final games and hope some results go their way. However, their draw is not bad and they are a chance to pull it off with games against Baghdad and then Mount Buller. If the Gumbies can win those two, they may be a small chance to play finals provided they can upset the Hawks in the final round at the House of Gumby.
The chances of Geelong turning their season around appear slim though with their inconsistent form of late. Round 20 may prove to be the battle for the spoon with the Gumbies only six points clear of the last-placed Demons. Win that though and they should confine the Dees to bottom place at season’s end.
Predicted Finish: 7th
8th – Mount Buller Demons, Played 18, Won 5, Lost 13, 19 points (one penalty point), 88.51%
Round 19 vs Mod Squad (away)
Round 20 vs Geelong Gumbies (home)
Round 21 vs Fighting Furies (away)
Mount Buller have had a tough year and their run home isn’t great but still good enough to see them win a few games to finish the year off in style. They face the Mod Squad in Round 19 who will be looking to beat the Demons in order to keep their finals aspirations in tact. From there the Dees come up against Geelong followed by the Furies in Round 22 at Punt Road. Round 20 looks like the game which may decide the spoon and the Demons must beat the Gumbies as well as either the Mods or the Furies in order to try and finish seventh. They will be buoyed by a win last week so that might give them the confidence to beat some of the sides who are vying for a finals place but their recent form would suggest they are warm favourites to win the wooden spoon.
Predicted Finish: 8th
So, there’s a look at the run home. I will update this at the end of each round and provide an in-depth analysis of who can finish where and the highest and lowest spots they can finish from next week.
Some pretty crucial games in the run home, I don’t think you could have fixtured the season any better to set up a finish like this.
1st – Southern Dragons, Played 18, Won 13, Lost 5, 52 points, 110.99%
Round 19 vs East Side Hawks (home)
Round 20 vs West Coast Wonders (away)
Round 21 vs Mod Squad (home)
The Dragons sit atop of the ladder, two games and percentage clear after what has been a fairly impressive year to date. Their run home is reasonably tricky with their final three games against opponents who are all located within the top five. However, the Dragons are first and with two games at home, they are in the strongest position to finish on top of the ladder. Their toughest game looks to be against the East Side Hawks in Round 19. The Hawks were on a charge of late until they came undone against the Furies in the previous round but East Side will still prove to be tough to beat. The Dragons then face a horribly out-of-form Wonders side in an away fixture followed by an up-and-down Mod Squad in the final round at Dragon Island.
You would think the Dragons would be good enough to win all three games but nothing is set in stone in fantasy football and there still may be a few surprises left in the season.
Predicted Finish: 1st
2nd – Fighting Furies, Played 18, Won 11, Lost 7, 44 points, 102.73%
Round 19 vs West Coast Wonders (home)
Round 20 vs Mod Squad (away)
Round 21 vs Mount Buller Demons (home)
The run home for the Furies is fairly good with the Punt Road boys facing two top five sides in their final three matches. Round 19 will be a crucial fixture, with the Furies taking on the Wonders in a game which will go a fair way to determining who finishes second. A win for the Furies will take them two games ahead of third while a loss will drop them to third place due to an inferior percentage. They then face the Mods Squad away before hosting the Demons in Round 21. Should the Furies win their game against the Wonders they would only need to win one more to finish second. However, should they lose to the Wonders they will need to win their last two and hope the Wonders lose at least one game before the end of the season.
To win the minor premiership, the Furies would need to win all three of their final matches and hope the Dragons slip up twice, maybe even three times to take top spot, however that would appear unlikely.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
3rd – West Coast Wonders, Played 18, Won 10, Lost 8, 40 points, 105.46%
Round 19 vs Fighting Furies (away)
Round 20 vs Southern Dragons (home)
Round 21 vs Baghdad Bombers (away)
The Wonders have one of the worst runs home, facing the top two sides in the next two matches. Lose both of those and they will have an even win-loss record and a percentage that will likely be not much more then 100%. That would make their Round 21 clash against the Bombers very, very interesting and could see both sides squabbling over fifth place.
However, a win against either of those two top sides would see the Wonders challenge the Furies for second place and a home final for week one of the finals series. Winning all three would secure them second spot and maybe even first if the Dragons don’t win for the rest of the home and away season. But, with the form of those sides around them, the Wonders will be hard pressed to finish in the top three and they’ll need to turn their form around if they want to go deep into the finals series.
Predicted Finish: 4th
4th – East Side Hawks, Played 18, Won 10, Lost 8, 36 points (four penalty points), 112.63%
Round 19 vs Southern Dragons (away)
Round 20 vs Baghdad Bombers (home)
Round 21 vs Geelong Gumbies (away)
East Side’s runs home starts with the top of the ladder Dragons over at Dragon Island, a place which hasn’t proved fruitful for the travelling teams this season. The Hawks' good form ended last round thanks to the Furies but they were running red hot before that and jumped from last place to fourth after a streak of wins so the Dragons will need to be on their game as the Hawks will be out to make amends. After that, the Hawks face Baghdad and Geelong, two sides that will be hopeful of replacing them in the five.
East Side should be able to win their last two which will put them in a strong position to take third with the good run home. If they can beat the Dragons they can finish second but only if the Furies struggle in the run home. The Hawks will definitely rue losing those four points earlier in the season.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
5th – Mod Squad, Played 18, Won 8, Lost 10, 32 points, 100.24%
Round 19 vs Mount Buller Demons (home)
Round 20 vs Fighting Furies (home)
Round 21 vs Southern Dragons (away)
Round 19 is a must win for the Mods as they have a stiff run home, facing the Furies and then the Dragons in consecutive matches. With Baghdad having a slightly easier run home, the Mods must beat the Demons and then one of the Dragons or the Furies to give themselves the best chance at making the finals. If they can do that, they should be able to finish in the five and maybe even overtake the Wonders as they have a tough draw.
However, a loss to the Demons will leave 5th spot wide open and the men in blue and green may need to win their final two to make the five and even that may not guarantee them a spot in the finals. The game against Mount Buller will prove a catalyst for the Mods and will be pivotal in determining if they make the finals and if they do, what type of role they will play.
Predicted Finish: 6th
6th – Baghdad Bombers, Played 18, Won 8, Lost 10, 29 points (3 penalty points), 92.70%
Round 19 vs Geelong Gumbies (home)
Round 20 vs East Side Hawks (away)
Round 21 vs West Coast Wonders (home)
Round 19 almost shapes as an elimination final for the Bombers. A win and they will still be in contention for the finals. A loss and they may need to win their final two games to have a crack at playing in September and they will have to rely on results going their way.
The last two rounds sees them face East Side Hawks and West Coast Wonders. The Hawks could potentially be coming off losses to the Furies and Dragons so Round 20 seems to be the optimum time for the Bombers to grab an upset win. The Wonders’ poor form of late could also come into the Bombers favour with the Wonders form slipping by the week and has seen them go from top to a distant third. If they are good enough, Baghdad could win all three of the final games and surprise everyone come finals time.
Predicted Finish: 5th
7th – Geelong Gumbies, Played 18, Won 7, Lost 11, 25 points (three penalty points), 89.76%
Round 19 vs Baghdad Bombers (away)
Round 20 vs Mount Buller Demons (away)
Round 21 vs East Side Hawks (home)
Geelong face the toughest task of any side to make the finals. They must win all three of their final games and hope some results go their way. However, their draw is not bad and they are a chance to pull it off with games against Baghdad and then Mount Buller. If the Gumbies can win those two, they may be a small chance to play finals provided they can upset the Hawks in the final round at the House of Gumby.
The chances of Geelong turning their season around appear slim though with their inconsistent form of late. Round 20 may prove to be the battle for the spoon with the Gumbies only six points clear of the last-placed Demons. Win that though and they should confine the Dees to bottom place at season’s end.
Predicted Finish: 7th
8th – Mount Buller Demons, Played 18, Won 5, Lost 13, 19 points (one penalty point), 88.51%
Round 19 vs Mod Squad (away)
Round 20 vs Geelong Gumbies (home)
Round 21 vs Fighting Furies (away)
Mount Buller have had a tough year and their run home isn’t great but still good enough to see them win a few games to finish the year off in style. They face the Mod Squad in Round 19 who will be looking to beat the Demons in order to keep their finals aspirations in tact. From there the Dees come up against Geelong followed by the Furies in Round 22 at Punt Road. Round 20 looks like the game which may decide the spoon and the Demons must beat the Gumbies as well as either the Mods or the Furies in order to try and finish seventh. They will be buoyed by a win last week so that might give them the confidence to beat some of the sides who are vying for a finals place but their recent form would suggest they are warm favourites to win the wooden spoon.
Predicted Finish: 8th
So, there’s a look at the run home. I will update this at the end of each round and provide an in-depth analysis of who can finish where and the highest and lowest spots they can finish from next week.
Some pretty crucial games in the run home, I don’t think you could have fixtured the season any better to set up a finish like this.

