Conspiracy Theory The Russia-Ukraine War

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Mofra

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Mofra

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Historically, Russia just throw men at the problem and generally re-assess when they get to the 500,000 casualty mark.
It's going to be a long and awful conflict for as long as Putin survives.
 

Werewolf

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Historically, Russia just throw men at the problem and generally re-assess when they get to the 500,000 casualty mark.
It's going to be a long and awful conflict for as long as Putin survives.
As clumsy as Russia has been, they can still win this war and their victory condition is easier to achieve than Ukraine's. Probably the quickest way this ends. Ukraine lacks the manpower to retake the occupied territories and Crimea.

I'm assuming the Russian victory condition is the conquest of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts, while not losing ground elsewhere.
 
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Mofra

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As clumsy as Russia has been, they can still win this war and their victory condition is easier to achieve than Ukraine's. Probably the quickest way this ends. Ukraine lacks the manpower to retake the occupied territories and Crimea.

I'm assuming the Russian victory condition is the conquest of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts, while not losing ground elsewhere.
Typically, the ratio to hold occupied territory is 7:1.
That's without considering the logistical problems of resupply, morale, troop rotation, etc.
If Russia do manage to take any significant swathes of Ukrainian land, it will turn into Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam - bloody guerrilla conflict that Russia will lose, perhaps after many years of trying. The high civilian casualties (even ignoring human rights abuses in border towns) mean there will be no 'hearts and mind' campaign, let alone as successful one. Then there's next winter to consider.

The Brits in Malaya are the only real historical precedent for subjugating a motivated populace, and that was a pretty brutal campaign which included 'shoot on sight' orders for anybody moving outside of curfew and the establishment of massive concentration camps.
That was a much smaller landmass as well, without a large network of resupply points on the opposite side of the front.
 

HaveCrankOnMe

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Typically, the ratio to hold occupied territory is 7:1.
That's without considering the logistical problems of resupply, morale, troop rotation, etc.
If Russia do manage to take any significant swathes of Ukrainian land, it will turn into Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam - bloody guerrilla conflict that Russia will lose, perhaps after many years of trying. The high civilian casualties (even ignoring human rights abuses in border towns) mean there will be no 'hearts and mind' campaign, let alone as successful one. Then there's next winter to consider.

The Brits in Malaya are the only real historical precedent for subjugating a motivated populace, and that was a pretty brutal campaign which included 'shoot on sight' orders for anybody moving outside of curfew and the establishment of massive concentration camps.
That was a much smaller landmass as well, without a large network of resupply points on the opposite side of the front.

I would agree that Russia didn't have much fun in Afghanistan. There's a lot more support for them in Ukraine than there ever would have been in Afghanistan though.
 

Werewolf

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I would agree that Russia didn't have much fun in Afghanistan. There's a lot more support for them in Ukraine than there ever would have been in Afghanistan though.
Mostly in the areas already controlled by the DPR and LPR. Advancing further west will be of minimal benefit to Russia and would take years at their current (glacial) rate of advance. They already have enough leverage at the negotiating table with their oil & gas suppliers and by holding on to the ground they've gained since the proper war started.
 

Mofra

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Mostly in the areas already controlled by the DPR and LPR. Advancing further west will be of minimal benefit to Russia and would take years at their current (glacial) rate of advance. They already have enough leverage at the negotiating table with their oil & gas suppliers and by holding on to the ground they've gained since the proper war started.
There is the risk that Russia will simply regroup and attack again at a later date if a peace deal is reached with current territorial boundaries.
Their dishonesty in the past means that it would take a huge leap of faith for Ukraine to trust any peace negotiation, even if Russia offered terms Ukraine would accept.
It's a shitshow with little prospect of peace in the near term. And as the thaw hits, it's likely that attacks will increase.
 

Werewolf

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There is the risk that Russia will simply regroup and attack again at a later date if a peace deal is reached with current territorial boundaries.
Their dishonesty in the past means that it would take a huge leap of faith for Ukraine to trust any peace negotiation, even if Russia offered terms Ukraine would accept.
It's a shitshow with little prospect of peace in the near term. And as the thaw hits, it's likely that attacks will increase.
Yes, but Russia will point to the broken promises of NATO not expanding east. I think that expansion had more to do with weapons sales rather than intimidating Russia, but they've long been a paranoid country. Ukraine could've avoided this mess by joining CSTO 10 years ago :huh:
 

Werewolf

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So Ukraine gets more western tanks, including the Abrams which I didn't expect. I thought the eastern NATO countries would empty their stocks of ex-Soviet tanks first. Anyway I look forward to some footage of tank on tank engagements:

 

Zidane98

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Yes, but Russia will point to the broken promises of NATO not expanding east. I think that expansion had more to do with weapons sales rather than intimidating Russia, but they've long been a paranoid country. Ukraine could've avoided this mess by joining CSTO 10 years ago :huh:

NATO excuse is laughable.

Right now Putin is moving military assets from Russia's newest NATO border area (Finland) to Ukraine in order to support the invasion.

If Putin actually really believed his NATO nosense he would be devoting assets to the NATO border with Finland.
 

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GG.exe

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There are some big things in the works going on behind the scenes right now.

You will need to brush up on the Ukrainian State decree from Zelensky on 02/24/2022, the day the missile strikes began.

Zelensky ordered the Ukrainian MoD to destroy all State docs associated with Hunter Biden’s biolab company “METABIOTA and Battelle”.

Zelensky was trying to cover up their connection to Biden and the Biolabs.
 

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