News The Russian invasion of Ukraine

[House_of_Dahl]

I can’t see Russia being able to surround Kiev and be able to hold those positions. It will require more men than they have committed to the Northern operation.
They appear to be making slow gains in the South but They are still not able to create a land bridge to Crimea. They are also mostly sticking to a long supply line system and not consolidating outwards to protect supply lines.

I can see this turning into a meat grinder BUT can also see an awe full lot of dead Russian soldiers.

Some observers saying they might try storm Kyiv within the next 24-96 hrs.

Thoughts on how that'd play out?

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

 

[LittleG]

Some observers saying they might try storm Kyiv within the next 24-96 hrs.

Thoughts on how that'd play out?

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

IF I was a professional soldier I wouldn’t attack a city unless one of these circumstances applied:
-Surprise
-City extensively bombed/shelled
-City currently experiencing an armed revolt
-City recently massively damaged by a natural disaster

None of these circumstances apply to Kyiv. So, I would give chances of success at 0.0%. Expected casualty rate (death or surrender) of over 95% of attackers and an equal number of defenders killed. As these troops don’t have a retreat then the remaining 5% will die or surrender. There are more soldiers defending Kyiv than attackers, so Kyiv wins.


IF Russia actually does this, then the war will be over much much faster, as the units that do the attack will most likely be completely destroyed. Then Ukraine can redeploy the units around Kyiv to the Southern theatre.

 

[O Grobbecker]

According to the latest from Zelenskyy, Ukraine can win the war. I was skeptical until I saw that Justin Trudeau agrees with him.

 

[doggies ftw]

This is ****ed, we can’t just allow this to happen to a country in 2022. I know it means world war but it’s going to happen eventually anyway at this rate - time to take action.

 

[LittleG]

This is f’ed, we can’t just allow this to happen to a country in 2022. I know it means world war but it’s going to happen eventually anyway at this rate - time to take action.

Some people have hope that Ukraine can win. I think Putin will deploy tactical nukes or chemical/biological weapons IF he is losing. That scenario leads to WW3…. So, I am hoping that it becomes a stalemate for long enough that Russia agrees to a ceasefire. BUT I want the civilians to get out of the area before they get killed in the crossfire.

 

[dogwatch]

This is f’ed, we can’t just allow this to happen to a country in 2022. I know it means world war but it’s going to happen eventually anyway at this rate - time to take action.

What sort of action?

We are at the precipice.

If the world war you expect results in a major exchange of multiple nuclear weapons - even if it was just in the northern hemisphere - we probably wouldn’t survive it.

Putin is playing on this MAD scenario (mutually assured destruction) and banking on the west restraining itself. Unfortunately he’s unhinged enough to go on escalating if there’s an aggressive response from NATO.

No we can’t stay supine but neither can we say indiscriminately “ahh stuff it let’s just go to war with the bastards”.

 

[NBates]

I think we should do more too, but I'm at a loss to suggest anything. Maybe it's too early for the sanctions to take effect, but alas I think it's just going to affect the Russian people and not the psychopath in charge.

Where's the Thunderbirds when you need them? I think I grew up watching too much Western propaganda thinking our secret services (International Rescue, Control, Kinsmen) could do something underhand to thwart the evils in this world. I'm sad I've realised that USA are not as advanced as we all thought and Europe has the backbone of a squid.

The trouble is, we do nothing and prevent a nuke war now, what happens when Pukin' decides to do the same to Estonia etc etc etc? At some stage it will have to lead to action and the bigger the USSR's territory, the more soldiers he has to fight for him.

So the question is, at what stage will it be necessary for the west to fight?

 

[ScragCity]

So the question is, at what stage will it be necessary for the west to fight?

Good question. I wouldn't expect us to get involved unless a NATO country was attacked.

My question for you is this:

What does the West fighting with Russia even look like? Does the US send troops to fight the Russians and let them throw the first nuclear punch? Or do they just skip the foreplay, launch the nukes and see what comes back their way?

 

[NBates]

Good question. I wouldn't expect us to get involved unless a NATO country was attacked.

My question for you is this:

What does the West fighting with Russia even look like? Does the US send troops to fight the Russians and let them throw the first nuclear punch? Or do they just skip the foreplay, launch the nukes and see what comes back their way?

I think the US should stay out of it and the NATO countries go in, if anyone at all. USA can contribute to strategic manoeuvres and arming these nations. I don't think this will happen, but they'd better get off their arses if he does the same to another country.

But if Europe goes in, while everyone's distracted China will take off.

We can only hope the follow up to Pukin' isn't as power hungry. I mean, the guy only has a couple of decades to go at most.

Even scarier though was the report I saw on 60 minutes tonight. These MFs are everywhere.

 

[NBates]

PS: if USA did go for it they would have to do it without foreplay. I think they have their own nuke defence shields or whatever (but maybe that's another fairy story). Even tho they might be alright, Europe would be the ones Russia launches their nukes on to.

 

[ScragCity]

I think the US should stay out of it and the NATO countries go in, if anyone at all. USA can contribute to strategic manoeuvres and arming these nations

The US is the most important member of NATO. If NATO is at war they don't have the option of staying out of it. Article 5 states the following:

an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all; and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

So any attack by Russia on a NATO country will trigger Article 5 and put Russia and the US at war by default.

 

[Dogsman16]

Putin has boxed himself into an extremely tight corner. 3-1 attacker-defender ratio is generally whats required at a minimum to take a city and kyiv is now the most heavily fortified location on planet earth. Some US military generals believe it would take at least 5 or 6 times the numbers to take Kyiv. Russia simply don't have the manpower nor the supply's to take and hold a city like Kyiv for a sustained period of time. Meanwhile the western world will continue to fund and supply either a direct war or a guerilla campaign if Russia do somehow succeed.

2 things that could determine the outcome of this war will be how long does Zelensky hold his nerve (and he's looking pretty determined at the moment) and whether Russia is able to assassinate him. Unless Russia can break Zelensky by inflicting mass casualties or are able to take him out of the leadership, Russia doesn't have much chance.

You'd assume that Putin would be seeking certain assurances from Jinping. He'd be an absolute madman if he did involve chemical/nuclear weapons into the fold. Basically that would trigger a WW3 level esculation and China would have to be directly involved if Russia has any chance to hold the west off.

 

[ScragCity]

Putin has boxed himself into an extremely tight corner. 3-1 attacker-defender ratio is generally whats required at a minimum to take a city and kyiv is now the most heavily fortified location on planet earth. Some US military generals believe it would take at least 5 or 6 times the numbers to take Kyiv. Russia simply don't have the manpower nor the supply's to take and hold a city like Kyiv for a sustained period of time. Meanwhile the western world will continue to fund and supply either a direct war or a guerilla campaign if Russia do somehow succeed.

2 things that could determine the outcome of this war will be how long does Zelensky hold his nerve (and he's looking pretty determined at the moment) and whether Russia is able to assassinate him. Unless Russia can break Zelensky by inflicting mass casualties or are able to take him out of the leadership, Russia doesn't have much chance.

You'd assume that Putin would be seeking certain assurances from Jinping. He'd be an absolute madman if he did involve chemical/nuclear weapons into the fold. Basically that would trigger a WW3 level esculation and China would have to be directly involved if Russia has any chance to hold the west off.

China has as much reason as anyone to try to prevent WW3. All of their efforts to become the biggest superpower on Earth will have been in vain if they end up with an uninhabitable planet.

 

[Dogsman16]

China has as much reason as anyone to try to prevent WW3. All of their efforts to become the biggest superpower on Earth will have been in vain if they end up with an uninhabitable planet.

If it did reach a WW3 level esculation then there would be a reasonable chance that China would leave Putin at the aisle. China will do whats in China's best interests.

 

[NBates]

China has as much reason as anyone to try to prevent WW3. All of their efforts to become the biggest superpower on Earth will have been in vain if they end up with an uninhabitable planet.

But they don't believe in climate change - that's going to leave them with the same thing....an uninhabitable planet.

 

[NBates]

The US is the most important member of NATO. If NATO is at war they don't have the option of staying out of it. Article 5 states the following:

an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all; and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

So any attack by Russia on a NATO country will trigger Article 5 and put Russia and the US at war by default.

So we don't have to worry about Russia exterminating any countries within NATO? So nothing to worry about then.

Is Taiwan in a similar pact with any countries south of the border?

(I'm not up with all this stuff)

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Poster in the War thread reported a text conversation between two Russian sisters, one in Ukraine, the other in Russia. The one in Russia firmly believes that Ukraine is full of nazis and Putin “the god” is saving Russian nationals living there.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

But they don't believe in climate change - that's going to leave them with the same thing....an uninhabitable planet.

Overpopulation begins with them.

 

[LittleG]

Russia has stepped up shelling on Kharkiv and the outer suburbs of Kyiv. If they continue to move the shelling towards the centre of Kyiv, they could in theory start a ground assault later this week. I still think that IF Russia is going to succeed then they need to shell the whole city for days before attacking.

I suspect Russia is going to start trying to take Kyiv prior to levelling it, so I expect them to lose. Some US generals think Russia will need 5-6 times the troops of the defenders to take the city. They appear to have maybe double at the most, so it would be a huge mistake to start urban conflict.

 

[NBates]

Why couldn't NATO countries sneak in their own troops going undercover as Ukrainian? Probably a million reasons why not, but wouldn't that be fantastic - just seeing the number of Ukrainian troops doubling every time the Russians think they've made some inroads.

 

[ScragCity]

Overpopulation begins with them.

They have a birth rate of 1.7 per woman right now which is below the replacement level of 2.1.

But they don't believe in climate change - that's going to leave them with the same thing....an uninhabitable planet.

Source?

 

[NBates]

They have a birth rate of 1.7 per woman right now which is below the replacement level of 2.1.



Source?

Observation. They aren't doing anything about it.

And they have increased the number of kids you can now have, so they are now encouraging people to have more. I think the kid limit was the best thing they ever did for the earth.

 

[ScragCity]

Observation. They aren't doing anything about it.

And they have increased the number of kids you can now have, so they are now encouraging people to have more. I think the kid limit was the best thing they ever did for the earth.

"China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and peak emissions before 2030." - Wikipedia

26% of China's energy comes from renewables compared to 24% for Australia and 17% for the US.

I'd be careful criticising China's climate policy as an Australian. Those in glass houses...

You might argue that China has a greater responsibility for climate change because they are the largest total polluter. I don't think that's an unreasonable position to take. But just be careful of thinking it's so black and white with regard to climate action. They have actually made more ambitious pledges and are further along the road to converting to renewables than we are.

 

[NBates]

1. Wikipedia
2. pledged to achieve (so has my giddy aunt)

Just be careful of being so presumptuous that I think in black and white. The conversation wasn't about anyone else except China when I replied. Next time get the facts on my views of other governments response to climate change before you so pompously criticize me.

 

[Libba39]

Poster in the War thread reported a text conversation between two Russian sisters, one in Ukraine, the other in Russia. The one in Russia firmly believes that Ukraine is full of nazis and Putin “the god” is saving Russian nationals living there.

If you are interested in dual narratives I would highly recommend the recent BBC-produced podcast "The Coming Storm" by Gabriel Gatehouse. Whilst it's focus is definitely America, Trump, Q-anon and the way conspiracy theories have been perpetuated recently, it gives great insight into how the battle for narrative is being waged in the age of the internet.

Absolutely riveting and fascinating and extremely well produced.