The seat of Dickson

[nut]

Dutton holds a smallest margin in QLD.

There is a strong independent candidate and Labor polled ok.

Donate here.

https://www.elliesmith.com.au/donate

 

[nut]

Ellie smith gaining support.

'Maroon independent' to take on Dutton in Dickson unveiled - Michael West

Marron independent to contest Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson (Qld) is Climate 200-backed environmental Ellie Smith.

michaelwest.com.au

 

[DaRick]

I'm always cynical about Dickson because sheer voter apathy + that rural Samford contingent always helps Dutton across the line.

That said, Dickson's voters must be more aware of him than they were previously, and him being largely absent when Cyclone Alfred looked like bearing down on Dickson + his open preference for living far, far away from Dickson must irritate some of their voters. Plus Clive still might not be a fan, and there's the independent being a potential spoiler.

It'll be a tight race - but Dickson's voters are apparently relatively conservative, which might still help Dutton squeak across the line. A genuine 50/50 proposition right now, though.

 

[Fire]

Dickson will only fall if Labour already has a large win. So its not really important, as much fun as it is to imagine Dutton losing in either outcome.

Actually if it is a hung parliament and Dutton loses, it could be bad for labour as then the liberals would be in a unique position of being able to elect a leader tailor made to bring cross benchers on.

Wait what am I saying, its campaigners all the way down for them.

 

[nut]

Dickson will only fall if Labour already has a large win. So its not really important, as much fun as it is to imagine Dutton losing in either outcome.

Actually if it is a hung parliament and Dutton loses, it could be bad for labour as then the liberals would be in a unique position of being able to elect a leader tailor made to bring cross benchers on.

Wait what am I saying, its campaigners all the way down for them.

He has a slim margin… and there is a strong independent.

 

[nut]

Momentum building ….

‘Make history’: Independent threatens Dutton’s seat

A ‘divisive’ Peter Dutton is more interested in clinching the nation's top job than working for his electorate, says an independent looking to oust him from his seat of Dickson.

thenightly.com.au

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Just got back from warrnambool and Western districts.
Can't believe I was hearing this
For the 1st time in history they think wannon could be gettable.

 

[nut]

Labor increasing fund raising in Dickson.

 

[nut]

Interesting

 

[Rob R]

He has a slim margin… and there is a strong independent.

True liberals hope Dutton goes down, he deserves too. thrown away the.election with cooker nonsense

 

[Gough]

A true Liberal looks like Dutton now, a Menzies Liberal wears Teal and the spineless moderates in the Party only have themselves to blame for this.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Just got back from warrnambool and Western districts.
Can't believe I was hearing this
For the 1st time in history they think wannon could be gettable.

Tehan/Libs are sh1tting themselves. Anti-Dyson Lib ads have gone into overdrive on local TV. Dyson firing back though, with plenty of historical footage going back years of Tehan saying he'll fix local roads... which are still deplorable. Will be an interesting watch on election night.

 

[TheDoor]

Tehan/Libs are sh1tting themselves. Anti-Dyson Lib ads have gone into overdrive on local TV. Dyson firing back though, with plenty of historical footage going back years of Tehan saying he'll fix local roads... which are still deplorable. Will be an interesting watch on election night.

Sure have upped the ads. On the tv heaps. Love the bit in the ad where it said that Alex was disrespectful to the military.
Showing a bit from this:

Launch of the HMAS Supply

I don't think it was Alex who was disrespectful.

 

[nut]

 

[aCunningPlan]

Sure have upped the ads. On the tv heaps. Love the bit in the ad where it said that Alex was disrespectful to the military.
Showing a bit from this:

Launch of the HMAS Supply

I don't think it was Alex who was disrespectful.

It totally undercuts the whole liberal MAGA argument that woke snowflakes are taking everything out of context, can't take a joke, and everyone is on the verge of being cancelled.

 

[nut]

Wow

 

[pazza]

Genuine three way contest. Anything could happen.

 

[Rotayjay]

We know Howard lost his seat as PM in 2007, but has an opposition leader ever lost his seat while serving as opposition leader?

 

[pazza]

We know Howard lost his seat as PM in 2007, but has an opposition leader ever lost his seat while serving as opposition leader?

Has happened at state level..

The Gurgle Hole of History – Leaders who’ve lost their Seats at Elections

Western Australia’s Liberal Leader Zak Kirkup holds his seat of Dawesville by a margin of just 0.8%. According to the Newspoll in this morning’s The Australian, the swing to Labor at th…

www.antonygreen.com.au

 

[geoffjennings79]

We know Howard lost his seat as PM in 2007, but has an opposition leader ever lost his seat while serving as opposition leader?

No federal oppo leader, but Howard wasn't the first PM. Conservative Stanley Melbourne Bruce after 7 years as PM, had his govt turfed in 1929, and lost his own seat. From Wikipedia:

 

[nut]

Make it happen

https://www.elliesmith.com.au/donate

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

This article extensively quotes a Griffith University professor who says it's no chance of happening, that Dutton will improve on 2022.

Dutton's 'struggle street' seat the most marginal in Queensland

Peter Dutton holds Dickson — a part outer-suburban mortgage belt, part rural electorate — with only a 2 per cent margin.

www.abc.net.au

It floats the idea that the money being poured into Ali France's campaign may be tactical to push Dutton to spend time shoring up his own seat, instead of getting to electorates where the Libs should be a chance of knocking off the incumbent ALP candidate, or helping other Lib MPs fortify their own marginal seats.

I don't know much about Dickson and I defer to their understanding of the electorate but it doesn't seem outside the realms of possibility to me that Dutton could do worse than 2022, with a couple of huge mistakes that would not have played well including his absence during Cyclone Alfred and his announcement and then backflip on WFH opportunities for public service employees.

Then of course is just the general trend being illustrated in the polls that the more people see of Dutton, the less they seem to like him. It's for a different thread, but it's why I'm a bit dubious about the Libs sweeping up a stack of seats in Victoria. Victorians have never liked Dutton and if he (or the ALP) gives them a reason to not vote for him, they'll take it and vote red/green/teal.

 

[DaRick]

This article extensively quotes a Griffith University professor who says it's no chance of happening, that Dutton will improve on 2022.

Dutton's 'struggle street' seat the most marginal in Queensland

Peter Dutton holds Dickson — a part outer-suburban mortgage belt, part rural electorate — with only a 2 per cent margin.

www.abc.net.au

It floats the idea that the money being poured into Ali France's campaign may be tactical to push Dutton to spend time shoring up his own seat, instead of getting to electorates where the Libs should be a chance of knocking off the incumbent ALP candidate, or helping other Lib MPs fortify their own marginal seats.

I don't know much about Dickson and I defer to their understanding of the electorate but it doesn't seem outside the realms of possibility to me that Dutton could do worse than 2022, with a couple of huge mistakes that would not have played well including his absence during Cyclone Alfred and his announcement and then backflip on WFH opportunities for public service employees.

Then of course is just the general trend being illustrated in the polls that the more people see of Dutton, the less they seem to like him. It's for a different thread, but it's why I'm a bit dubious about the Libs sweeping up a stack of seats in Victoria. Victorians have never liked Dutton and if he (or the ALP) gives them a reason to not vote for him, they'll take it and vote red/green/teal.

I don't think the WFH thing will have much effect, but largely disappearing during Cyclone Alfred and explicitly wanting to live far, far away from Dickson might.

Still see him as a weak favourite, though.

 

[OzeSparky]

Tehan/Libs are sh1tting themselves. Anti-Dyson Lib ads have gone into overdrive on local TV. Dyson firing back though, with plenty of historical footage going back years of Tehan saying he'll fix local roads... which are still deplorable. Will be an interesting watch on election night.

I think as the younger generation are coming through and they are doing their homework .
Tehan was placed in the seat cause it was a safe seat, he probably hasn't really had to do much. Now it look likes he has a battle.
I drove from Geelongl to Portland the other day and there was a lot more orange signs, (and orange kelpie signs) then the Blue ones.
It will be a interesting watch.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

This article extensively quotes a Griffith University professor who says it's no chance of happening, that Dutton will improve on 2022.

Paul Williams is not an oracle, he completely failed to foresee the Greens' success in inner Brisbane in 2022 and afterwards claimed it was down to demographics rather than the effort they made at campaigning. He's very stuck in the political past.