Analysis The Showdown - Draft Edition

[AFLOnline]

Would you do it if end up
Adelaide pick 3,21,24,
GC pick 2,4 , 8, 13 ,29
St Kilda 6, 16, 36,46,67

What in the *

 

[Two Planks]

Reckon Carlton trade pick 1 and future 1st to suns for 2 and 3.

Blues then trade 2 to port for 5 and 10
Blues then trade 3 to crows for 8 and 13
Blues end up with 5, 8, 10 and 13

1 - GC - WALSH
2 - PORT - LUKOSCIUS
3 - ADEL - RANKINE
4 - STK - M KING
5 - CARL - SMITH
6 - GC - CALDWELL
7 - WB - B KING
8 - CARL - ROZEE

 

[Peel67skin]

What in the ****

what the #### you don't want to add pick 16 into your list . Pick 6 and 16 are a lot better than pick 4 and 36 .
Brisbane done it in 2016 swapping pick 2 with GWS and gain pick 3 and 16 . D*** s!!!

 

[Suma Magic]

I can’t wait for the draft with live trading.

Also pumped that we have the last pick of the first night and the second pick of day two.

 

[Antares]

Assuming the top 8 order doesn't change (which I think is pretty likely), I'd predict:

Port will do the deal for Gold Coast's pick 3, not Adelaide.
Something like Pick 5 + 10 for Pick 3 + 24.
Or Pick 5 + Future first for 3 + 24.
It's overpaying quite a bit on Port's end, but as they showed with the Fremantle deal, they're clearly willing to pay big to move up the order, and pick 3 would guarantee them Rankine.
Gold Coast don't have as many available list spots as people think, so I wouldn't expect them to accept deals involving say picks 8, 13 and 16 from Adelaide.

I can see Adelaide targeting St.Kilda's pick 4, because St.Kilda have spare list spots. It would be pretty damn difficult to tempt them out of the opportunity to draft Bailey Smith or Max King though.

Logic would suggest it's not a bad idea for Carlton to float the idea of trading pick 1, because their next pick is 69, but history suggests that simply never happens, not since Fremantle committed one of the all-time biggest stuffups in 2001.

 

[AFLOnline]

Kinda off topic, but when was the last time twins played on each other?

For some reason most of the twins drafted in my time have been key position players (strange huh?) and pretty much all of them have played the same position as their twin. Max and Ben King might be the first I can think of any that may actually play on each other at one end of the ground.

Idk I've had a few beers so probably forgetting someone very obvious.

Edit: forgot the selwood brothers... surely Adam and Troy played on each other at some point even though Troy was mostly used as a tagger at Brisbane and probably played on Judd, Cousins, Kerr or Embley most of the time?

 

[Shaz2012]

Assuming the top 8 order doesn't change (which I think is pretty likely), I'd predict:

Port will do the deal for Gold Coast's pick 3, not Adelaide.
Something like Pick 5 + 10 for Pick 3 + 24.
Or Pick 5 + Future first for 3 + 24.
It's overpaying quite a bit on Port's end, but as they showed with the Fremantle deal, they're clearly willing to pay big to move up the order, and pick 3 would guarantee them Rankine.
Gold Coast don't have as many available list spots as people think, so I wouldn't expect them to accept deals involving say picks 8, 13 and 16 from Adelaide.

I can see Adelaide targeting St.Kilda's pick 4, because St.Kilda have spare list spots. It would be pretty damn difficult to tempt them out of the opportunity to draft Bailey Smith or Max King though.

Logic would suggest it's not a bad idea for Carlton to float the idea of trading pick 1, because their next pick is 69, but history suggests that simply never happens, not since Fremantle committed one of the all-time biggest stuffups in 2001.

So who are we spending 3 picks on if Luko and Rankine are gone before 4? I doubt we would even give up 2 picks in that scenario. I think we are keen to move up because we have yet to delist Cheney or Signorello.

But we moved swiftly to secure pick 13 and have been happy to let it play out since then. I don’t think we move unless we get a specific player. I am guessing Luko and I am also guessing Gold Coast won’t give him up.

 

[Antares]

So who are we spending 3 picks on if Luko and Rankine are gone before 4? I doubt we would even give up 2 picks in that scenario. I think we are keen to move up because we have yet to delist Cheney or Signorello.

But we moved swiftly to secure pick 13 and have been happy to let it play out since then. I don’t think we move unless we get a specific player. I am guessing Luko and I am also guessing Gold Coast won’t give him up.

I definitely wasn't suggesting giving up three picks for the Saints pick 4, I just think that's the one Adelaide may target. If I were to speculate a deal, I'd imagine it goes something along the lines of:

Pick 8 + 16 (or 21) for Pick 4 + 36.
Maybe a future pick could be involved.

Pick 4 would guarantee you one of Rankine or Rozee (probably Rozee). Worth dropping 16 to 36 for Rozee?

 

[Shaz2012]

I definitely wasn't suggesting giving up three picks for the Saints pick 4, I just think that's the one Adelaide may target. If I were to speculate a deal, I'd imagine it goes something along the lines of:

Pick 8 + 16 (or 21) for Pick 4 + 36.
Maybe a future pick could be involved.

Pick 4 would guarantee you one of Rankine or Rozee (probably Rozee). Worth dropping 16 to 36 for Rozee?

Not for me personally. Because we would also be giving up whoever slips to 8 as well, which could even be Rozee. Or Ben King or even Smith. It depends on how much truth there is to the Caldwell to GC rumour.

 

[JUSTWORK]

I definitely wasn't suggesting giving up three picks for the Saints pick 4, I just think that's the one Adelaide may target. If I were to speculate a deal, I'd imagine it goes something along the lines of:

Pick 8 + 16 (or 21) for Pick 4 + 36.
Maybe a future pick could be involved.

Pick 4 would guarantee you one of Rankine or Rozee (probably Rozee). Worth dropping 16 to 36 for Rozee?

We saw what port gave up to get 6, the top 7 are next level to the rest of the first round, would be more like 8 and 13, maybe even 8, 13 and 16 for 4 and 36. Saints won’t give it up cheaply.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Not for me personally. Because we would also be giving up whoever slips to 8 as well, which could even be Rozee. Or Ben King or even Smith. It depends on how much truth there is to the Caldwell to GC rumour.

I’d be amazed if Rozee slides that far, unless Rankine is also available can’t se him getting past port.

 

[Shaz2012]

I’d be amazed if Rozee slides that far, unless Rankine is also available can’t se him getting past port.

I can see both getting to Port and Port taking Rankine. If it’s true that GC are going to take Rozee because they want his mate Jack to be happy, then he probably doesn’t get that far. Seems legit. I will believe that when I see it.

The key for the Crows is whether GC take Caldwell. If that happens then one really high quality player gets to us. It would be nice if it was Rozee, but I’d prefer Smith. If it were Ben King then that’s still an amazing get for the club. I wouldn’t give up Ben King for Rozee and a 16 pick downgrade or whatever was being talked about.

I’d be pretty tempted to do that if it was a matter of giving up Caldwell though. But I don’t know a lot about him.

 

[Antares]

We saw what port gave up to get 6, the top 7 are next level to the rest of the first round, would be more like 8 and 13, maybe even 8, 13 and 16 for 4 and 36. Saints won’t give it up cheaply.

No, that's too much. Port gave up 23, 30 & 49 to move up from 11 to 6.
16 alone is probably worth a similar amount to 23 + 30, and Adelaide are upgrading from a better pick in 8.

I’d be amazed if Rozee slides that far, unless Rankine is also available can’t se him getting past port.

Didn't Port recently declare they're very interested in Rozee? At this point, it's pretty much certain all of Lukosius, Rankine and Rozee are going top 5.

 

[Crow till I die]

Not for me personally. Because we would also be giving up whoever slips to 8 as well, which could even be Rozee. Or Ben King or even Smith. It depends on how much truth there is to the Caldwell to GC rumour.

If the price is just too high i really hope we take caldwell at 8 before anyone else gets a look at him as even though he had hammy issues he looks a super player and could easily place inside the top 5 if injury free.

 

[Shaz2012]

If the price is just too high i really hope we take caldwell at 8 before anyone else gets a look at him as even though he had hammy issues he looks a super player and could easily place inside the top 5 if injury free.

I am sure Hamish will know all about him. It sounds like he is the guy we would take.

 

[JUSTWORK]

No, that's too much. Port gave up 23, 30 & 49 to move up from 11 to 6.
16 alone is probably worth a similar amount to 23 + 30, and Adelaide are upgrading from a better pick in 8.

Didn't Port recently declare they're very interested in Rozee? At this point, it's pretty much certain all of Lukosius, Rankine and Rozee are going top 5.

It’ll definitely cost more now then during the trade period, and a higher premium on draft night.

I didn’t hear the radio interview personally but apparently Chris Davious was asked straight up about Rozee and just said he’s a good player and someone they’d be looking at, very diplomatic from what I’ve heard. Certainly didn’t declare he is they guy we want.

 

[Brutalitops]

Reckon Carlton trade pick 1 and future 1st to suns for 2 and 3.

Blues then trade 2 to port for 5 and 10
Blues then trade 3 to crows for 8 and 13
Blues end up with 5, 8, 10 and 13

1 - GC - WALSH
2 - PORT - LUKOSCIUS
3 - ADEL - RANKINE
4 - STK - M KING
5 - CARL - SMITH
6 - GC - CALDWELL
7 - WB - B KING
8 - CARL - ROZEE

Its a nice scenario where everyone wins and I do like it as Im more keen on Smith and Rozee over Walsh alone (not a common sentiment with our supporters). However we cant trade our future first without another future first coming back in as we traded our future 2nd to GWS for Setterfield.

 

[Two Planks]

Its a nice scenario where everyone wins and I do like it as Im more keen on Smith and Rozee over Walsh alone (not a common sentiment with our supporters). However we cant trade our future first without another future first coming back in as we traded our future 2nd to GWS for Setterfield.

Gold Coast can quite easily include a future 2nd to get the deal over the line.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Gold Coast can quite easily include a future 2nd to get the deal over the line.

They already traded it to Brisbane.

 

[Two Planks]

They already traded it to Brisbane.

Im sure for a deal this size they could access another one from somewhere. Also I think you are allowed to apply to the AFL for special consideration to get the trade over the line.

 

[bmaurizio]

Reckon Carlton trade pick 1 and future 1st to suns for 2 and 3.

Blues then trade 2 to port for 5 and 10
Blues then trade 3 to crows for 8 and 13
Blues end up with 5, 8, 10 and 13

1 - GC - WALSH
2 - PORT - LUKOSCIUS
3 - ADEL - RANKINE
4 - STK - M KING
5 - CARL - SMITH
6 - GC - CALDWELL
7 - WB - B KING
8 - CARL - ROZEE

I’d do the trade, but GC would have to add a future 2nd rounder to to complete trade, as we may have restrictions on trading future 1st otherwise.
Apart from Smith& Rozee , Bailey William at pick 10 and Jones at 13 we snare 3 gun goal kicking midfielders and a quality tall/ Ruckman it would be a great outcome.

 

[Peel67skin]

Im sure for a deal this size they could access another one from somewhere. Also I think you are allowed to apply to the AFL for special consideration to get the trade over the line.

Isn't it Counter productive to get rid of pick 19 and then get rid of pick 6 for future pick . How to build culture and develop players when you keep delaying your rebuild for future pick .

 

[Jibroni]

Suns need to bring in as many players possible this year. Not sure what there benefit is in obtaining future picks.

 

[Two Planks]

Suns need to bring in as many players possible this year. Not sure what there benefit is in obtaining future picks.

Maybe they only see a couple of the top bracket as keepers, so no use drafting guys that will go home asap. Walsh is probably the least likely to go home and that's why they will do everything possible to get him.

 

[Jibroni]

Maybe they only see a couple of the top bracket as keepers, so no use drafting guys that will go home asap. Walsh is probably the least likely to go home and that's why they will do everything possible to get him.

I would back in the SA kids to stay with GC if Dewy can show them some light.

Not many players who leave SA return home, if anything it’s the other way round.