Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 appreciation thread (and other analytics)

Remove this Banner Ad

HairyO

Hall of Famer
Jul 13, 2015
30,673
33,205
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I started tracking this in 2019, because I suspected the answer was "almost always." Preseason ladder predictions in the media can be really wild, and only rarely did anyone ever go back and check how they held up.

Unfortunately we only got in one regular year before the massive disruption of 2020, where the fixture completely changed one round after the season started. And 2021 wasn't back to normal, either, with most of the fixture yet to be written at the start of the year. That meant models couldn't calculate which teams had easier/harder draws - or, in 2020, calculated it from a fixture that wasn't used in practice.

But in 2019, Squiggle's preseason ladder prediction was better than 29 out of 30 media ladders (details here). In 2020, it was better than 21 out of 38 media ladders (details here). In 2021, it was better than 19 out of 25 media ladders (details here).

I'm pretty sure at least a couple of these media types check the models, too! So their predictions are actually not completely independent.

So if COVID buggered off you'd be doing a pretty decent job.
 

TheUnicorn

Club Legend
Nov 1, 2021
1,140
1,386
AFL Club
Essendon
WLD%
1.Melbourne2110131.7%
2.Gold Coast1840131.2%
3.Port Adelaide1840120.6%
4.Brisbane Lions1750121.9%
5.Western Bulldogs1750117.4%
6.Sydney1660110.6%
7.GWS1480109.2%
8.Richmond1480104.6%
9.Essendon913094.9%
10.Geelong814094.9%
11.St Kilda814091.5%
12.Fremantle814091.4%
13.Collingwood616084.2%
14.West Coast616083.6%
15.Adelaide517089.0%
16.Hawthorn517084.2%
17.Carlton418083.5%
18.North Melbourne418080.6%

This was kinda fun

Believe Jason Sudeikis GIF by Apple TV
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Billy ray

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 10, 2013
19,766
30,882
The Valley near the Alley
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Hell no
WLD%
1.Melbourne2110131.7%
2.Gold Coast1840131.2%
3.Port Adelaide1840120.6%
4.Brisbane Lions1750121.9%
5.Western Bulldogs1750117.4%
6.Sydney1660110.6%
7.GWS1480109.2%
8.Richmond1480104.6%
9.Essendon913094.9%
10.Geelong814094.9%
11.St Kilda814091.5%
12.Fremantle814091.4%
13.Collingwood616084.2%
14.West Coast616083.6%
15.Adelaide517089.0%
16.Hawthorn517084.2%
17.Carlton418083.5%
18.North Melbourne418080.6%
QF1: MELBOURNE v Brisbane Lions
QF2: GOLD COAST v Port Adelaide
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Richmond
EF2: SYDNEY v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY

PF1: MELBOURNE v Sydney
PF2: GOLD COAST v Brisbane Lions

GF: Melbourne v GOLD COAST


Finals added.
B E L I E F
 

Ricky90

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2011
1,747
1,488
AFL Club
Collingwood
Apologise if this has been asked before but I can't find anything using search function.

Does anyone know of any similar utilities to Squiggle but for the NRL?
 

Chaisa

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 2, 2013
13,648
13,233
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
The Exers
How come the Squiggle hasn’t updated for the recent round?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Roobs321

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 28, 2008
10,454
7,357
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Arsenal Kilmarnock
Eagles now 0.00% chance for top 4 and 67% chance for bottom 2.

Squiggle remembers how crap we were late last year
 

tonygeeks

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 11, 2016
6,249
9,086
AFL Club
Fremantle
Freo as usual the loneliest little squiggle of all , we’ve even lost our only friend Collingwood


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com
 

Hobbes

Club Legend
Jul 20, 2006
1,722
2,434
Oxfordshire, UK
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg
WLD%
1.Melbourne2110131.7%
2.Gold Coast1840131.2%
3.Port Adelaide1840120.6%
4.Brisbane Lions1750121.9%
5.Western Bulldogs1750117.4%
6.Sydney1660110.6%
7.GWS1480109.2%
8.Richmond1480104.6%
9.Essendon913094.9%
10.Geelong814094.9%
11.St Kilda814091.5%
12.Fremantle814091.4%
13.Collingwood616084.2%
14.West Coast616083.6%
15.Adelaide517089.0%
16.Hawthorn517084.2%
17.Carlton418083.5%
18.North Melbourne418080.6%
QF1: MELBOURNE v Brisbane Lions
QF2: GOLD COAST v Port Adelaide
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Richmond
EF2: SYDNEY v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY

PF1: MELBOURNE v Sydney
PF2: GOLD COAST v Brisbane Lions

GF: Melbourne v GOLD COAST


Finals added.
B E L I E F

Does this set some kind of record in being proven wrong by round 5, as Port lost their fifth match?
 

freo_leo29

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
14,585
14,461
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Is Geelong a tad overrated by the squiggle at the moment?
Could be

Freo is definitely, got a juicy bump by smashing Eagles before the squiggle rated them bad, same for GWS (who the cats also got a nice bump from)

Both teams will probably even out over the season
 

Remove this Banner Ad