Sparkle
Simpson for Strawberry
Found my ladder prediction after I predicted every match back in March, and chucked it into the 'Rate My Ladder' feature on Squiggle (nice addition by the way). Fair to say I was a little off
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I'm not much better: https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder/?q=2019nkqiaderjmplgbofchFound my ladder prediction after I predicted every match back in March, and chucked it into the 'Rate My Ladder' feature on Squiggle (nice addition by the way). Fair to say I was a little off
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Yep, this is correct. Squiggle looks at 3 previous years plus the current year.It’s based purely on number of games played there over a certain period (don’t know what that period is exactly). Would come pretty damn close to zero when two tenants meet I’d say. Last night was +1.7pts to Collingwood and Essendon play most home games at Etihad.
You both beat Damien Barrett!I'm not much better: https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder/?q=2019nkqiaderjmplgbofch
Yep, this is correct. Squiggle looks at 3 previous years plus the current year.
Different models do HGA in different ways. It's hard to know who's right, since they usually agree within a handful of points, which is too small to test rigorously.
So we can be confident that an HGA estimate for a particular match is about right - within a goal, for most matches - but we can't really be sure whether it should be a couple of points higher or lower.
Mmm, I may tweak this in retrospect because I think the lower scoring has created a pretty significant distortion.Who is the best squiggle team to not make finals? Hawthorn surely up there this year.
GWS game helped a bit
I haven't tried it since, as you say, it's not very helpful for prediction as you don't know crowd sizes in advance. But yes, I do believe from what I've read that crowd size (& noise/passion) is likely to be a very significant factor - even more important than things like travel & ground familiarity.Have you done any modelling on home crowd sizes vs pure HGA? I often wonder how much of the HGA is down to local knowledge of the ground vs the impact of the crowd support on the local team (and the umpires). Probably not that useful for predictive modelling given you don't the crowd ahead of time, but might be interesting to know if there is a pure crowd size effect (and to a degree crowd sizes are probably somewhat predictable, so might not have zero predictive value, although probably not enough to be practically useful).
I'll take my beer for a CAnyone who gets a B or an A at predicting the ladder in March ... you deserve a beer
Paul Bastin from AFL.com.au had Brisbane 8th. His is the best preseason ladder by a human expert.Final Siren did any experts pick Brisbane in the finals?
The Squiggle's forecast has already eliminated Essendon!!
Quite the contrast between Hawthorn (2nd on the squiggle, 9th IRL) and Essendon (16th on the squiggle, 8th IRL).
Certainly back end of the year your form was on par with the best.A little bias, but by my eyes Squiggle was right.