Looks like I'm hop
That's only 20 games and in two of those at least he went off injured.
That's only 20 games and in two of those at least he went off injured.
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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
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Running the post-elimination final algorithm after returning home from holiday.
Geelong +14 v Collingwood
West Coast +28 v Essendon
GWS v Western Bulldogs +18
Brisbane +9 v Richmond
1/4, 126/202
1. Richmond 32.4 (+2)
[2. Hawthorn 19.8 (+3)]
3. Brisbane 18.1 (-2)
[4. Western Bulldogs 14.9 (-2)]
5. West Coast 13.6 (+2)
6. Geelong 13.3 (-2)
7. Collingwood 12.3 (+1)
8. GWS 10.5 (+3)
...
[15. Essendon -13.7 (-3)]
Geelong +9 v West Coast
Brisbane +19 v GWS
Geelong +14 v Collingwood
West Coast +28 v Essendon
GWS v Western Bulldogs +18
Brisbane +9 v Richmond
1/4, 126/202
1. Richmond 32.4 (+2)
[2. Hawthorn 19.8 (+3)]
3. Brisbane 18.1 (-2)
[4. Western Bulldogs 14.9 (-2)]
5. West Coast 13.6 (+2)
6. Geelong 13.3 (-2)
7. Collingwood 12.3 (+1)
8. GWS 10.5 (+3)
...
[15. Essendon -13.7 (-3)]
Geelong +9 v West Coast
Brisbane +19 v GWS
Last edited:
Geelong +9 v West Coast
Brisbane +19 v GWS
1/2, 127/204
1. Richmond 27.3
[2. Hawthorn 17.3]
3. Geelong 14.6 (+3)
4. GWS 14.1 (+1)
[5. Western Bulldogs 14.0 (-1)]
[6. Brisbane 13.4 (-3)]
[7. West Coast 11.7 (-2)]
8. Collingwood 11.4 (-1)
Richmond +13 v Geelong
Collingwood +2 v GWS
Brisbane +19 v GWS
1/2, 127/204
1. Richmond 27.3
[2. Hawthorn 17.3]
3. Geelong 14.6 (+3)
4. GWS 14.1 (+1)
[5. Western Bulldogs 14.0 (-1)]
[6. Brisbane 13.4 (-3)]
[7. West Coast 11.7 (-2)]
8. Collingwood 11.4 (-1)
Richmond +13 v Geelong
Collingwood +2 v GWS
Is this a squiggle prediction? In the forecast it has Richmond 71 - Geelong 70
No, it's mine. Or to be more specific, my computer's - except for data entry, I have minimal personal input.
Richmond +13 v Geelong
Collingwood +2 v GWS
1/2, 128/206
1. Richmond 27.3
2. GWS 15.6 (+2)
[3. Hawthorn 15.0] (-1)
[4. Western Bulldogs 11.8] (+1)
[5. Geelong 10.2] (-2)
[6. Brisbane 10.0]
[7. Collingwood 9.1] (+1)
Richmond +12 v GWS
Collingwood +2 v GWS
1/2, 128/206
1. Richmond 27.3
2. GWS 15.6 (+2)
[3. Hawthorn 15.0] (-1)
[4. Western Bulldogs 11.8] (+1)
[5. Geelong 10.2] (-2)
[6. Brisbane 10.0]
[7. Collingwood 9.1] (+1)
Richmond +12 v GWS
Massive move late in the year by the tigers ... wow
Richmond +12 v GWS
1/1, 129/207
End of season ratings (and starting ratings for next season).
1. Richmond 34.4
2. Hawthorn 12.0
3. Geelong 8.2
4. Western Bulldogs 7.81
5. Collingwood 7.79
6. Brisbane 7.2
7. West Coast 7.0
8. GWS 6.7
9. North Melbourne 3.3
10. Sydney 3.2
11. Port Adelaide 1.5
12. Carlton -5.1
13. St Kilda -6.8
14. Melbourne -7.47
15. Adelaide -7.53
16. Essendon -8.7
17. Fremantle -8.8
18. Gold Coast -21.6
There's a positive skew of about 1.8, but it has no effect (the only thing that matters is the difference between the ratings) and it will sort itself out in a few rounds next year.
1/1, 129/207
End of season ratings (and starting ratings for next season).
1. Richmond 34.4
2. Hawthorn 12.0
3. Geelong 8.2
4. Western Bulldogs 7.81
5. Collingwood 7.79
6. Brisbane 7.2
7. West Coast 7.0
8. GWS 6.7
9. North Melbourne 3.3
10. Sydney 3.2
11. Port Adelaide 1.5
12. Carlton -5.1
13. St Kilda -6.8
14. Melbourne -7.47
15. Adelaide -7.53
16. Essendon -8.7
17. Fremantle -8.8
18. Gold Coast -21.6
There's a positive skew of about 1.8, but it has no effect (the only thing that matters is the difference between the ratings) and it will sort itself out in a few rounds next year.
Last four premiers have had virtually the same attack rating of around 60 - these are still historically low with Sydney '05 the only team with a weaker attack.
Wow. The squiggle really gave GWS a hip and shoulder there.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
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To be fair - it didn't really rate them all finals - and once the variance stopped flowing their way it got ugly.
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
There's a real cluster of premiership teams out to the right now. Last 4 titles are to teams with very strong defenses. I guess this is now not a blip, but a trend. Maybe even a tipping point where several decades of one style of teams on Squiggle winning premierships, has changed to another style.
I guess the pycho pressure teams can stop the attacking teams. Alternatively there are not any genuinely top notch attacking teams around atm.
I guess the pycho pressure teams can stop the attacking teams. Alternatively there are not any genuinely top notch attacking teams around atm.
evo
Let's hit the f*ken road!
Scores across the board were lower than ever this season despite the 6-6-6, so I suppose Squiggle just reflects that.
so the Tiges were the most attacking team, just ahead of Brisbane, and the Tiges had the best defense, ahead of the Pies and Hawks?
Interesting how strong the Hawks looked on defense. If they add Patton, and shift Wingard forward, and Lewis steps up.....interesting next year?
Interesting how strong the Hawks looked on defense. If they add Patton, and shift Wingard forward, and Lewis steps up.....interesting next year?
That gws game may cause the Hawks position to be different to otherwise. Although it obviously happened and needs to be a consideration.
So the 2020 fixture is out. My first port of call is to see when the squiggle is being updated even before viewing my own teams fixture...
Final Siren
Final Siren
- Aug 18, 2009
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I'm on it!
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #1,769
A real-quick first pass at a 2020 forecast, accounting for fixture and off-season player movement:
This still needs work and I haven't checked it for grievous errors! Buuuuut:
2019 was a super-even year, surpassing 2016 and 2017, which were themselves considered to be very even years, compared to the dark Hawthorn/Collingwood/Geelong eras that came before. This means that a whole bunch of teams are rated quite closely to one another, and it will be more of a crapshoot than usual as to who winds up on top.
To measure player movement, Squiggle relies on AFL Player Ratings, which are pretty good but also definitely worse than expert human observation. For example, I have watched Richmond ruckman Ivan Soldo quite a bit, and I think he's a much better player than his terrible AFL Player Rating score suggests. But Player Ratings are objective and cover every single player.
Squiggle rates Fremantle as having the most new talent to pack into its Round 1 side compared to what they were putting out late last year. (This considers players returning from injury, retirements, delistings, and trades in/out). Next are Gold Coast, and then, further back, Melbourne, the Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
At the other end of the scale, Squiggle sees Adelaide as having a worse Best 22 in Round 1 next year than they put out late this year. They are the only team rated in the negatives that way. Other teams with relatively little scope for improvement are Brisbane, North Melbourne, Richmond, and - despite Tim Kelly -West Coast.
West Coast were never really rated by Squiggle in 2019, so that's what the the mid-table finish reflects, rather than anything unusual from player movement or the fixture.
Similarly, Essendon were rated very poorly by the end of 2019, and Squiggle doesn't see why they'll get better.
Conversely, Squiggle's weird love affair with Port Adelaide continues.
Hawthorn and the Bulldogs both finished off 2019 very well, leaving them well-placed for an assault on 2020.
2019 was a super-even year, surpassing 2016 and 2017, which were themselves considered to be very even years, compared to the dark Hawthorn/Collingwood/Geelong eras that came before. This means that a whole bunch of teams are rated quite closely to one another, and it will be more of a crapshoot than usual as to who winds up on top.
To measure player movement, Squiggle relies on AFL Player Ratings, which are pretty good but also definitely worse than expert human observation. For example, I have watched Richmond ruckman Ivan Soldo quite a bit, and I think he's a much better player than his terrible AFL Player Rating score suggests. But Player Ratings are objective and cover every single player.
Squiggle rates Fremantle as having the most new talent to pack into its Round 1 side compared to what they were putting out late last year. (This considers players returning from injury, retirements, delistings, and trades in/out). Next are Gold Coast, and then, further back, Melbourne, the Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
At the other end of the scale, Squiggle sees Adelaide as having a worse Best 22 in Round 1 next year than they put out late this year. They are the only team rated in the negatives that way. Other teams with relatively little scope for improvement are Brisbane, North Melbourne, Richmond, and - despite Tim Kelly -West Coast.
West Coast were never really rated by Squiggle in 2019, so that's what the the mid-table finish reflects, rather than anything unusual from player movement or the fixture.
Similarly, Essendon were rated very poorly by the end of 2019, and Squiggle doesn't see why they'll get better.
Conversely, Squiggle's weird love affair with Port Adelaide continues.
Hawthorn and the Bulldogs both finished off 2019 very well, leaving them well-placed for an assault on 2020.
- Jul 19, 2019
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Spewing I have only just discovered the squiggle.
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
It'll get into your head and then as you understand it, you'll hopefully improve your picking during the season.
Otherwise it's a fun thing to make you think a bit more deeply about footy than usual.
Obvious error in your suns algorithm
- Jul 19, 2019
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Yeah keen to get a grasp on it further. I normally graph this stuff out on paper and it takes a while and is not as in depth so thank god I found this. Going to save me a bit of hassle.
Thanks for the hawks love maxbarry, but I noted most of the 2019 hawks movement came from two victories over GWS, who now get the biggest chokers tag deservedly
- Aug 18, 2009
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Yes, there's one game in particular where the Hawks kept the Giants to 4.5 in Sydney - Squiggle looooved that and it's responsible for a lot of the Hawks' high rating.
I've gone back and tinkered with it a bit, but I just can't find a way to stop that kind of movement without harming the performance of the model. That is, anything I try to do to cap or scale down extraordinarily large movement off a single game makes the model worse as a predictor. So for now, at least, the Hawks keep their rating.
