Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle 2018, 2019 and 2020 appreciation thread (and other analytics)

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Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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And the Tigers ... it just stays hard (?)
At the end of the 17-round season, everyone will wind up with an "Opposition" number close to zero, since this isn't adjusted for timing (i.e. catching teams at a low or high point). Although top teams will have a slightly easier fixture by virtue of not having to play themselves, while bottom teams will have a slightly harder one.

The HGA numbers for the QLD clubs will keep going up, I assume, while the Vic ones will keep going down. I do think the AFL have done a very good job of controlling for this, though, since it would have been easy for those numbers to blow out.
 

Dr Tigris

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At the end of the 17-round season, everyone will wind up with an "Opposition" number close to zero, since this isn't adjusted for timing (i.e. catching teams at a low or high point). Although top teams will have a slightly easier fixture by virtue of not having to play themselves, while bottom teams will have a slightly harder one.

The HGA numbers for the QLD clubs will keep going up, I assume, while the Vic ones will keep going down. I do think the AFL have done a very good job of controlling for this, though, since it would have been easy for those numbers to blow out.
So given we've had the toughest opposition so far that means we've got the easiest run home? Or am I reading it wrong.

Anyway thanks FS. You're always an interesting fellow to have around.
 

harrythetiger

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So given we've had the toughest opposition so far that means we've got the easiest run home? Or am I reading it wrong.

Anyway thanks FS. You're always an interesting fellow to have around.
We haven’t had quite the toughest opposition. But the combination of tough opponents and ground familiarity means overall we have had the toughest draw (by that measure) so far. While opponent difficulty will roughly even out, ground familiarity won’t so I doubt we’ll have the easiest run home.
If I have interpreted the table correctly that is.
 

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Mantastic

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We haven’t had quite the toughest opposition. But the combination of tough opponents and ground familiarity means overall we have had the toughest draw (by that measure) so far. While opponent difficulty will roughly even out, ground familiarity won’t so I doubt we’ll have the easiest run home.
If I have interpreted the table correctly that is.
Yep, nailed it.
 

Dr Tigris

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We haven’t had quite the toughest opposition. But the combination of tough opponents and ground familiarity means overall we have had the toughest draw (by that measure) so far. While opponent difficulty will roughly even out, ground familiarity won’t so I doubt we’ll have the easiest run home.
If I have interpreted the table correctly that is.
Yeah, we've already played most of the top 8, but not the best teams (perhaps). And we get WEagles at home when they are on fire versus the original plan of playing them in Qld when they sucked worse than us :( ;). These are the games that decide how good you really are.

Anyway, it is what it is. Just keep winning and you're ahead - that's all any team can do.
 

harrythetiger

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Yeah, we've already played most of the top 8, but not the best teams (perhaps). And we get WEagles at home when they are on fire versus the original plan of playing them in Qld when they sucked worse than us :( ;). These are the games that decide how good you really are.

Anyway, it is what it is. Just keep winning and you're ahead - that's all any team can do.
We’ll get the eagles in QLD, they are leaving WA after R13.
 

Dr Tigris

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We won the last two games in Queensland, albeit against not top quality oppostion.

You are correct in that we're not so flash hot there but I am confident the hub experience taught us a lot on what works and doesn't work.
I'm sure it had. Hope it hasn't. But I expect the Eagles to be there when the whips are cracking. Probably form team right now.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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Here's the ladder after R11 plus some projections from the models (Squiggle + others) on the right.

Best guess is that the top 8 teams all stay in. Melbourne has a 40% chance of breaking in; the Dogs & Bombers each have a 20% shot at finals.

All the top 8 except St Kilda are expected to return 4+ wins from here.

Each of the current top 4 have a better-than-even chance of staying there. Richmond has a 36% chance, Collingwood 22%, GWS 21%, St Kilda 16%.

North & Sydney are equally likely to finish 17th.

The Crows are 98% likely to finish bottom.

Ladders are very volatile, though! A single unexpected result can change a lot.

Screenshot from 2020-08-13 08-52-13.png


Projected ladder:

Screenshot from 2020-08-13 09-03-11.png
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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Round 18 hasn't been assigned venues yet, but that aside, we can estimate how Home Ground Advantage for 2020 will wind up:

Tier 1: The QLD, SA and WA teams get a net benefit of 6-7 goals across the season.

Tier 2: A fair gap here, then three teams with a mostly neutral season (between 0 and 2-goal disadvantage): North Melbourne, GWS, and Sydney. North had many neutral games, while the two NSW teams basically split their fixture into thirds (one good, one neutral, one bad).

Tier 3: Most Vic teams net around a 3-goal disadvantage: Bulldogs, Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Essendon. These teams had no games with any significant home advantage, but did have a few with disadvantage. The Cats are an exception, having 3 at Kardinia, but also 3 away in SA and WA after crowds came back.

Tier 4: The Saints always have something quirky in their fixture. This time it's a worse fixture than most Melbourne clubs, with classic away games against all the QLD and SA clubs, but no Perth trip. That nets a 4.5 goal disadvantage.

Tier 5: Collingwood & Hawthorn net a 6-7 goal disadvantage. The Pies had the Perth hub on top of classic away games against Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, and Gold Coast, and, unlike Geelong, no good home games to balance it. The Hawks had Brisbane at the MCG, but managed to get every single other non-Melbourne club in a traditional away game. They will actually wind up with an 8-goal disadvantage if their R18 game against Gold Coast gets fixtured at Carrara.
 

Asapartyhat

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Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-
 

Spanish_Fly

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Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-
I think on the small samples size so far teams coming off an 8 or 9 day break have looked a little rusty compared to teams off a 5-6 day break, I thnk the teams can still only do 1 main training session in that entire 8 or 9 days off.
 

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Spanish_Fly

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Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-
Also you've just seen a statistical analysis of the difficulty of teams draws across the season, from a few posts above

"
Tier 1: The QLD, SA and WA teams get a net benefit of 6-7 goals across the season.

Tier 2: A fair gap here, then three teams with a mostly neutral season (between 0 and 2-goal disadvantage): North Melbourne, GWS, and Sydney. North had many neutral games, while the two NSW teams basically split their fixture into thirds (one good, one neutral, one bad).

Tier 3: Most Vic teams net around a 3-goal disadvantage: Bulldogs, Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Essendon. These teams had no games with any significant home advantage, but did have a few with disadvantage. The Cats are an exception, having 3 at Kardinia, but also 3 away in SA and WA after crowds came back. "

Which shows WC with an approx +7 goal draw, whilst Tiges will have an approx -3 goal draw, yet still somehow complain Richmond being looked after and I'm sure you think WCE are being robbed, lol.
 

Dr Tigris

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Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-
It's a nice run, but come on. The fixture gives and takes. 2 games against probably to best 2 teams on the run home isn't easy. The tiges never got home games like the Eagles. See FS's post above and you'll see that the Tiugers are middle of the road for advantage.

" Tier 1: The QLD, SA and WA teams get a net benefit of 6-7 goals across the season." And that's fair this year. No way the AFL should be playing in Vic.
 

Asapartyhat

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It's a nice run, but come on. The fixture gives and takes. 2 games against probably to best 2 teams on the run home isn't easy. The tiges never got home games like the Eagles. See FS's post above and you'll see that the Tiugers are middle of the road for advantage.

" Tier 1: The QLD, SA and WA teams get a net benefit of 6-7 goals across the season." And that's fair this year. No way the AFL should be playing in Vic.
Its a nice run alright.I would equate it to playing cards with a kid you know is cheating but you play along anyway just to humour them.
The Optus games were fairer in that the two visiting teams arrived at the same time played each other(at the same time) and had two weeks and a game on the surface before playing a home team.
See reality and you see the fixtures after the Essendon game place Richmond in a league of their own for advantage.
 

harrythetiger

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Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-
You're going to accuse Richmond of getting an advantage in a year where they won't get a genuine home advantage in any game and will spend almost all of it in a hub away from home. That's a strange obsession.
 

Seeds

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You're going to accuse Richmond of getting an advantage in a year where they won't get a genuine home advantage in any game and will spend almost all of it in a hub away from home. That's a strange obsession.
10 other teams are in that situation. You guys didnt have to do the perth run while spending 14 days in quarantine.
 

Simon_Nesbit

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Round 18 hasn't been assigned venues yet, but that aside, we can estimate how Home Ground Advantage for 2020 will wind up:

Tier 1: The QLD, SA and WA teams get a net benefit of 6-7 goals across the season.

Tier 2: A fair gap here, then three teams with a mostly neutral season (between 0 and 2-goal disadvantage): North Melbourne, GWS, and Sydney. North had many neutral games, while the two NSW teams basically split their fixture into thirds (one good, one neutral, one bad).

Tier 3: Most Vic teams net around a 3-goal disadvantage: Bulldogs, Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Essendon. These teams had no games with any significant home advantage, but did have a few with disadvantage. The Cats are an exception, having 3 at Kardinia, but also 3 away in SA and WA after crowds came back.

Tier 4: The Saints always have something quirky in their fixture. This time it's a worse fixture than most Melbourne clubs, with classic away games against all the QLD and SA clubs, but no Perth trip. That nets a 4.5 goal disadvantage.

Tier 5: Collingwood & Hawthorn net a 6-7 goal disadvantage. The Pies had the Perth hub on top of classic away games against Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, and Gold Coast, and, unlike Geelong, no good home games to balance it. The Hawks had Brisbane at the MCG, but managed to get every single other non-Melbourne club in a traditional away game. They will actually wind up with an 8-goal disadvantage if their R18 game against Gold Coast gets fixtured at Carrara.
Hi FS, I'd love to know the games Squiggle thinks have been (or would have been) changed by venue?
 

Spanish_Fly

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10 other teams are in that situation. You guys didnt have to do the perth run while spending 14 days in quarantine.
We didn't get 3 genuine home games at our boutique stadium. For me the draw this year is all over the place, other than Brisbane and GC all teams have been disadvantaged compared to a normal season. I wouldn't be complaining either way.

Just funny how even in a season where Richmond has ZERO games with HGA, people still complain we somehow get the easy run.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-
You would think more days' break gives an on-field advantage, but there isn't good statistical evidence for it.

Here are a couple of good articles by people going hunting for the supposed effect of a shorter break and coming up empty:

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl...ter-turnarounds-really-disadvantage-afl-teams

https://www.afl.com.au/news/86913/the-stats-files-will-a-sixday-break-hurt-pies-gws

As the Stats Insider piece mentions, the real story here is the Killer Bye, which honestly seems to be a real thing. Byes are terrible for teams. And not just ones in blue and white hoops.

But an extra one or two days' break doesn't seem to make any detectable difference. At best, there's a particular window where teams might do better if they have exactly 2-3 more days rest than their opponents, but not more and not less. But even then it's pretty suspect.

Therefore I ignore days' break as a factor, even though obviously people often talk about it like it's a proven thing.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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Hi FS, I'd love to know the games Squiggle thinks have been (or would have been) changed by venue?
It's always a bit of a dodgy question, because it will only be games that were very close, and therefore could have been changed by almost anything.

And even then, once you conclude the venue could have made a difference, you have to figure out whether the venue should have been different. And while I can say with confidence that Hawthorn have had a rough fixture, I can't point to an individual game and say THAT ONE is wrong, because it would have been fine if it had been balanced out by other games.

That said, to answer your question, these are the results Squiggle thinks would have gone the other way at a neutral venue:
  • R4 GWS def COL by 2 @ Sydney Showgrounds with 4.7pts of HGA
  • R8 BRI def MEL by 4 @ Carrara with 4.5pts of HGA (in a Melbourne home game, too, ouch)
  • R11 GCS drew ESS @ Carrara with 3.7pts of HGA to the Suns
  • R12 BRI def NOR by 1 @ Carrara with 3.4pts of HGA (a Nth Melbourne home game)
Quite a lot came awfully close. The COL v RIC draw had 0.0 HGA, for example, and a couple of Carlton one-pointers had less than half a point of HGA.

Really this kind of analysis should add up the probabilities that HGA could have made a difference in each game to arrive at a season total.
 

Asapartyhat

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You would think more days' break gives an on-field advantage, but there isn't good statistical evidence for it.

Here are a couple of good articles by people going hunting for the supposed effect of a shorter break and coming up empty:

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl...ter-turnarounds-really-disadvantage-afl-teams

https://www.afl.com.au/news/86913/the-stats-files-will-a-sixday-break-hurt-pies-gws

As the Stats Insider piece mentions, the real story here is the Killer Bye, which honestly seems to be a real thing. Byes are terrible for teams. And not just ones in blue and white hoops.

But an extra one or two days' break doesn't seem to make any detectable difference. At best, there's a particular window where teams might do better if they have exactly 2-3 more days rest than their opponents, but not more and not less. But even then it's pretty suspect.

Therefore I ignore days' break as a factor, even though obviously people often talk about it like it's a proven thing.
Richmond play a high intensity manic pressure type game style and with short breaks between games compact fixtures a higher attrition rate (injurys) means that style of play is the most compramised.
Longer breaks between games then their opponents and a shorter season definetly helps them imo.
 

Asapartyhat

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We didn't get 3 genuine home games at our boutique stadium. For me the draw this year is all over the place, other than Brisbane and GC all teams have been disadvantaged compared to a normal season. I wouldn't be complaining either way.

Just funny how even in a season where Richmond has ZERO games with HGA, people still complain we somehow get the easy run.
Richmond do have a much easier run then their opponents and the rest of the comp after the Essendon game.That is very hard to deny. Why do the two interstate teams (Eagles and Fremantle) BOTH have Richmond first up in Queensland four days after the two WA teams last game in Perth ? And Richmond have a longer break than them.That is ridiculous.
 
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