Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle 2018, 2019 and 2020 appreciation thread (and other analytics)

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Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
4,058
16,796
AFL Club
Richmond
I'm the same.

I vaguely remember this time last year Squiggle was bearish on us too wasnt it?
It was very bearish in 2017. (And bullish in 2018.) 2019 I think was about right -- had the Tigers 2nd flag favourite after the finals and tipped their finals correctly except for the Brisbane QF.
 

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Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
4,058
16,796
AFL Club
Richmond
I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.
Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.

A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.

As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239

Screenshot from 2020-10-19 09-51-24.png
 

Vikingnz

Premium Gold
Mar 11, 2013
671
1,945
AFL Club
Richmond
Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.

A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.

As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239
I was surprised to see Richmond as favourites with the bookies, I think Geelong should comfortably be favoured going in to the game. Surely the market as least tightens through the week.
 

evo

Morales
Oct 29, 2003
28,665
20,511
La Paz, Bolivia
AFL Club
Richmond
Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.

A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.

As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239

View attachment 989278
Booooooo!!!
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
4,058
16,796
AFL Club
Richmond
2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
View attachment 990675
The Hawks are ahead of the Swans there on overall rating (horizontal + vertical), but not by much. There are quite a few years where there's a gap like that - noticeable but much smaller than 2020 - most recently 2017.

The Cats' movement in the last two weeks has been extreme because they've delivered 52 scoring shots to 19, all without home advantage. Which is a pretty incredible tally. Worth noting that they had 17 to 13 in the QF they lost to Port, too, which makes it 69 to 33 across the finals so far.

It doesn't make them a sure thing in the Grand Final, by any stretch, and it's only last month that they lost 4.7 to Richmond 7.15, but it's very impressive. I think people have been a bit quick to find excuses to dismiss the Cats -- too old, can't win after a bye, can't win finals, only win big at home -- and overlooking the reality that there's a really solid team there that just keeps winning games by good margins.
 

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