Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Bungeye]

Mr squiggle is obviously on another planet to the rest of us!

 

[evo]

Squiggle hath forsaken Richmond in our most important hour.

 

[Final Siren]

May I kindly ask, your model predicts the Power, do you think personally we will see the Tigers in the GF?

Personally I think we will lose to Port tonight. But I usually go into games thinking we're going to lose, because it's hard to break the habit of a lifetime.

 

[evo]

Personally I think we will lose to Port tonight. But I usually go into games thinking we're going to lose, because it's hard to break the habit of a lifetime.

I'm the same.

I vaguely remember this time last year Squiggle was bearish on us too wasnt it?

 

[Final Siren]

Im very surprised that Squiggle has the Cats a clear 7pt winners here.

Yes, Squiggle is more pro-Cats than most models, although not outrageously so. It liked Geelong's 25 scoring shots to Collingwood's 7 last week.

 

[Final Siren]

I'm the same.

I vaguely remember this time last year Squiggle was bearish on us too wasnt it?

It was very bearish in 2017. (And bullish in 2018.) 2019 I think was about right -- had the Tigers 2nd flag favourite after the finals and tipped their finals correctly except for the Brisbane QF.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

What would be Geelong's attack and defence 'ratings' after last nights game? Doesn't seem to have updated

 

[Final Siren]

What would be Geelong's attack and defence 'ratings' after last nights game? Doesn't seem to have updated

Sorry, it got stuck. Updated now!

 

[HTT]

Sorry, it got stuck. Updated now!

View attachment 988542

That’s an imposing move

 

[Gydafud]

Phwoar. Hope the Richmond players have caught a glimpse of that! Intimidating!

Curiously, what has been the most “positive” position a team has lost a GF from?

 

[HTT]

Phwoar. Hope the Richmond players have caught a glimpse of that! Intimidating!

Curiously, what has been the most “positive” position a team has lost a GF from?

I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.

Wasn’t a GF, but the 2018 prelim must have been heavily in Richmonds favour too.

 

[n1ck]

Speaking of analytics... here's Stats Insider's Brownlow analysis:

2023 AFL Brownlow Medal Predictor & Odds

The Stats Insider 2023 AFL Brownlow Medal predictions are here, with this season's voting simulated over 10,000 times in order to find the most likely outcomes and the best betting value.

www.statsinsider.com.au

 

[HTT]

Wasn’t a GF, but the 2018 prelim must have been heavily in Richmonds favour too.

We were rated similarly defensively to the 08 Cats but not quite the same offensively, about 62

 

[Final Siren]

I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.

Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.

A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.

As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239

 

[Vikingnz]

Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.

A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.

As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239

I was surprised to see Richmond as favourites with the bookies, I think Geelong should comfortably be favoured going in to the game. Surely the market as least tightens through the week.

 

[evo]

Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.

A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.

As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239

View attachment 989278

Booooooo!!!

 

[RW]

Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up.

2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!

 

[Seeds]

So the squiggle has geelong 2020 looking similar to essendon 2000 and geelong 2011. literally two of the greatest individual seasons of the past 40 years.


f*** me.

 

[HTT]

2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
View attachment 990675

Hawthorn weren’t rated much higher overall than Sydney, the two teams were just opposite in terms of off/def

 

[The GOAT]

2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
View attachment 990675

Of our two GFs, I was thinking 2014 would be the bigger difference (in favour of Sydney)

 

[Final Siren]

2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
View attachment 990675

The Hawks are ahead of the Swans there on overall rating (horizontal + vertical), but not by much. There are quite a few years where there's a gap like that - noticeable but much smaller than 2020 - most recently 2017.

The Cats' movement in the last two weeks has been extreme because they've delivered 52 scoring shots to 19, all without home advantage. Which is a pretty incredible tally. Worth noting that they had 17 to 13 in the QF they lost to Port, too, which makes it 69 to 33 across the finals so far.

It doesn't make them a sure thing in the Grand Final, by any stretch, and it's only last month that they lost 4.7 to Richmond 7.15, but it's very impressive. I think people have been a bit quick to find excuses to dismiss the Cats -- too old, can't win after a bye, can't win finals, only win big at home -- and overlooking the reality that there's a really solid team there that just keeps winning games by good margins.

 

[Final Siren]

Of our two GFs, I was thinking 2014 would be the bigger difference (in favour of Sydney)

Only a small edge to Sydney pre-GF 2014.

That's Port hiding underneath the Hawks.

 

[Bungeye]

This thread is literally out of this world!

 

[evo]

Up yours Squiggle!!!

Just kidding. Love your work and will be an avid follower again next year.