The Squiggle 2018 and 2019 appreciation thread (and other analytics)

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juss

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These are my power rankings at the end of round 1.

1. West Coast Eagles (0-1) Ladder Position: 16th

2. Richmond Tigers (1-0) Ladder Position: 5th

3. GWS Giants (1-0) Ladder Position: 1st

4. Geelong (1-0) Ladder Position: 8th

5. Collingwood Magpies (0-1) Ladder Position: 11th

6. Melbourne Demons (0-1) Ladder Position: 13th

7. Brisbane Lions (1-0) Ladder Position: 3rd

8. Essendon Bombers (0-1) Ladder Position: 18th

9. Adelaide Crows (0-1) Ladder Position: 15th

10. Port Adelaide Power (1-0) Ladder Position: 6th

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) Ladder Position: 4th

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-0) Ladder Position: 2nd

13. Western Bulldogs (1-0) Ladder Position: 7th

14. Sydney Swans (0-1) Ladder Position: 12th

15. Carlton Blues (0-1) Ladder Position: 14th

16. North Melbourne Kangaroos (0-1) Ladder Position: 17th

17. St Kilda Saints (1-0) Ladder Position: 9th

18. Gold Coast Suns (0-1) Ladder Position: 10th
 

Simon_Nesbit

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One thing gone from Squiggle I really liked was the ability to "move" a team's rating then forecast the season. Not just to move Hawks far NE and Bombers SW, but just to play with 'what if' scenarios.

I still want to see the ability to edit the forecast algorithm function added - where you tip the next round yourself and it shows how squiggle would interpret the rest of the season if that tip actually happened.

ie, if Hawthorn beat Bulldogs 86-67 next week, how would Squiggle predict the rest of the season? Then, change the tip to 67-86 (loss) - what prediction then?
 

Virgin Dog

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These are my power rankings at the end of round 1.

1. West Coast Eagles (0-1) Ladder Position: 16th

2. Richmond Tigers (1-0) Ladder Position: 5th

3. GWS Giants (1-0) Ladder Position: 1st

4. Geelong (1-0) Ladder Position: 8th

5. Collingwood Magpies (0-1) Ladder Position: 11th

6. Melbourne Demons (0-1) Ladder Position: 13th

7. Brisbane Lions (1-0) Ladder Position: 3rd

8. Essendon Bombers (0-1) Ladder Position: 18th

9. Adelaide Crows (0-1) Ladder Position: 15th

10. Port Adelaide Power (1-0) Ladder Position: 6th

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) Ladder Position: 4th

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-0) Ladder Position: 2nd

13. Western Bulldogs (1-0) Ladder Position: 7th

14. Sydney Swans (0-1) Ladder Position: 12th

15. Carlton Blues (0-1) Ladder Position: 14th

16. North Melbourne Kangaroos (0-1) Ladder Position: 17th

17. St Kilda Saints (1-0) Ladder Position: 9th

18. Gold Coast Suns (0-1) Ladder Position: 10th
Comparing to last year's ladder (which I'm guessing you are using as your starting point), curious to hear your reasoning on these points:
  • Eagles get dismantled by Brisbane and don't drop (actually rise from the H&A ladder spot)
  • Adelaide embarrassed by the Hawks, and jump up 3 places
  • Hawks win convincingly and drop 7 places
  • Bulldogs win against last years' 6th place team, and don't move upwards
The Sydney and North drops I can sort of understand, but they still seemed a little extreme. Brisbane's rise also seems excessive, but it was a good win against last years' premiers so fair enough I guess
 

juss

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Comparing to last year's ladder (which I'm guessing you are using as your starting point), curious to hear your reasoning on these points:
  • Eagles get dismantled by Brisbane and don't drop (actually rise from the H&A ladder spot)
  • Adelaide embarrassed by the Hawks, and jump up 3 places
  • Hawks win convincingly and drop 7 places
  • Bulldogs win against last years' 6th place team, and don't move upwards
The Sydney and North drops I can sort of understand, but they still seemed a little extreme. Brisbane's rise also seems excessive, but it was a good win against last years' premiers so fair enough I guess
It's a combination of last years results, expectations over the preseason, prediction and round 1 results. On the Richmond board I give a small reason why each team is placed here. It's a starting point and will change but didnt want to clog up this thread. Next week il include the short analysis if you like.
 

Virgin Dog

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It's a combination of last years results, expectations over the preseason, prediction and round 1 results. On the Richmond board I give a small reason why each team is placed here. It's a starting point and will change but didnt want to clog up this thread. Next week il include the short analysis if you like.
Cheers, not actually arguing btw, was just curious what you're mindset is prior to round 1 and where you initially rate teams is all :)
 

juss

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Cheers, not actually arguing btw, was just curious what you're mindset is prior to round 1 and where you initially rate teams is all :)
This early in the season, I'm putting more weight into my personal preseason predictions and ratings. The reason is upsets are always going to happen in round 1, but not willing to completely change my ratings of teams based on the small sample size. Even though times like Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Port Adelaide all had good wins, I still need to be convinced they'll be better than teams like Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide over the course of the season, which I'm not yet. That could certainly change though, as the season goes on, more weight gets put into games rather than predictions.
 

Hobbes

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Carlton v Richmond +31
Collingwood +11v Geelong
Melbourne +27 v Port Adelaide
Adelaide +12 v Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs +7 v Sydney
Brisbane v West Coast +16
St Kilda +14 v Gold Coast
GWS +8 v Essendon
Fremantle v North Melbourne +5

Well, 4/9 in a tough round.

1. Collingwood 18.5 (+1)
2. West Coast 15.8 (-1)
3. GWS 15.7 (+3)
4. Geelong 14.4 (+1)
5. Richmond 11.6 (-1)
6. Melbourne 10.2 (-3)
7. Hawthorn 7.4 (+2)
8. Brisbane 4.0 (+4)
9. Port Adelaide 3.6 (+4)
10. Adelaide 1.5 (-3)
11. Essendon -0.6 (-3)
12. Western Bulldogs -0.7 (-1)
13. Fremantle -0.8 (+3)
14. Sydney -3.9
15. North Melbourne -8.21 (-5)
16. St Kilda -8.23 (-1)
17. Gold Coast -14.2
18 Carlton -17.6

Richmond v Collingwood +7
Sydney +4 v Adelaide
Essendon +8 v St Kilda
Port Adelaide +27 v Carlton
Geelong +4 v Melbourne
West Coast +12 v GWS
North Melbourne v Brisbane +6
Hawthorn +8 v Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast v Fremantle +1
 

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juss

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ROUND 2 POWER RANKINGS

Round 2 sees some big changes, with some teams gaining some respect while others losing their ratings credits over preseason predictions. Again this early there is still some stock placed in expectation, with not many games in 2019 to use as formguides.

1. West Coast Eagles (1-1) Ladder Position: 10th
Looked completely dominant against the Giants and have now started their season. Slick, skilful, strong in the air, and still with players to come back. Almost impossible to beat in Perth and they hold 1st spot.

2. Geelong Cats (2-0) Ladder Position: 1st
Geelong are a seriously good side and one I underrated in the preseason. Their midfield is elite, and with Hawkins and Ratugolea forward they have quality marking options. Good defence and wins against good signs including a demoltion of the Demons, will also be almost impossible to beat in Geelong.

3. GWS Giants (1-1) Ladder Position: 8th
Losing to the Premiers away on the rebound. Don't lose too much credit for that. With some star players set to return they are still one of the teams to beat.

4. Collingwood Magpies (1-1) Ladder Position: 7th
They dismantled Richmond, and they look good early. Elite midfield + ruck division, Cox only needs to provide a contest and there is quality smalls and some matchwinners around him like De Goey. Defence remains the perceived weakness, and this week against West Coast will reveal a lot. They could rise with a win.

5. Richmond Tigers (1-1) Ladder Position: 13th
We cling on because it's only 2 games in, but we are dropping and likely to drop further after this week. Injuries/suspensions to players have cruelled us and exposed lack of depth, and it doesn't look like getting better this week with an extremely hard road trip against the Giants. Ball use and lack of pressure was horrible against the Pies.

6. Brisbane Lions (2-0) Ladder Position: 2nd
Rising with a bullet. Young with a ton of upside, they could make the 8 this year and two impressive wins to start the season.

7. Adelaide Crows (1-1) Ladder Position: 12th
Maybe a little high, but rated them preseason and they got back on track with a good win on the road. They're middle of the pack, but stay here due to preseason rankings.

8. Port Adelaide (2-0) Ladder Position: 3rd
Could have them higher, except they didn't beat the Blues by much and were it not for some in-game injuries to Curnow, they may have been knocked off at home.

9. Bulldogs (2-0) Ladder Position: 4th
Another that could be higher after 2 wins, however I am not convinced the sides they beat are any good. Another one that needs to be watched more, but more wins will have them rise. Expected to beat Gold Coast which won't necessarily earn them too many credits.

10. Melbourne Demons (0-2) Ladder Position: 18th
Last on the ladder but prepared to give them one more chance. Have looked awful so far, but the talent is there. Crunch game against the Bombers who look just as desperate. Lose that and they are in real trouble.

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-1) Ladder Position: 9th
Impressed last week, disappointed in this. They hold spot because they copped some in game injuries and some dodgy free kicks and key moments went against them. Mid table side.

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-1) Ladder Position: 6th
Don't rate Gold Coast, and had of the Suns kicked better Freo wouldn't have been close. It might be a long road trip, but still expected to beat what will be an eventual bottom 4 side.

13. St Kilda Saints (2-0) Ladder Position: 5th
2 wins, but still think they won't win many more. Have been blessed with the draw to start the season but expect them to start dropping to their expected bottom 3 position. Freo away this week is a tough challenge, will earn real credit if they get up.

14. Sydney Swans (0-2) Ladder Position: 14th
Clinging on and could be lower, but they lost to a decent side this week. Expect they might drop in coming weeks, but the chance to get on track against Carlton.

15. Gold Coast Suns (1-1) Ladder Position: 11th
Good win, and should have won by more. This sees them rise, previously had them bottom 2. Will struggle against the Doggies.

16. Carlton Blues (1-1) Ladder Position: 15th
Liked the fight they have shown so far. Bit of bad luck against the Power with the Curnow injury earlyish. They aren't good, but aren't the worst either.

17. North Melbourne (0-2) Ladder Position: 16th
Smashed in round 1, beaten at home in round 2. Not much to get excited about.

18. Essendon Bombers (0-2) Ladder Position: 17th
They have lost all their preseason hype credits. Have never seen such a weak first quarter like they put in against the Saints. They should be embarrassed. Season on the line against the Demons already in round 3. Another meek performance will have them entrenched at the bottom.
 
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ROUND 2 POWER RANKINGS

Round 2 sees some big changes, with some teams gaining some respect while others losing their ratings credits over preseason predictions. Again this early there is still some stock placed in expectation, with not many games in 2019 to use as formguides.

1. West Coast Eagles (1-1) Ladder Position: 10th
Looked completely dominant against the Giants and have now started their season. Slick, skilful, strong in the air, and still with players to come back. Almost impossible to beat in Perth and they hold 1st spot.

2. Geelong Cats (2-0) Ladder Position: 1st
Geelong are a seriously good side and one I underrated in the preseason. Their midfield is elite, and with Hawkins and Ratugolea forward they have quality marking options. Good defence and wins against good signs including a demoltion of the Demons, will also be almost impossible to beat in Geelong.

3. GWS Giants (1-1) Ladder Position: 8th
Losing to the Premiers away on the rebound. Don't lose too much credit for that. With some star players set to return they are still one of the teams to beat.

4. Collingwood Magpies (1-1) Ladder Position: 7th
They dismantled Richmond, and they look good early. Elite midfield + ruck division, Cox only needs to provide a contest and there is quality smalls and some matchwinners around him like De Goey. Defence remains the perceived weakness, and this week against West Coast will reveal a lot. They could rise with a win.

5. Richmond Tigers (1-1) Ladder Position: 13th
We cling on because it's only 2 games in, but we are dropping and likely to drop further after this week. Injuries/suspensions to players have cruelled us and exposed lack of depth, and it doesn't look like getting better this week with an extremely hard road trip against the Giants. Ball use and lack of pressure was horrible against the Pies.

6. Brisbane Lions (2-0) Ladder Position: 2nd
Rising with a bullet. Young with a ton of upside, they could make the 8 this year and two impressive wins to start the season.

7. Adelaide Crows (1-1) Ladder Position: 12th
Maybe a little high, but rated them preseason and they got back on track with a good win on the road. They're middle of the pack, but stay here due to preseason rankings.

8. Port Adelaide (2-0) Ladder Position: 3rd
Could have them higher, except they didn't beat the Blues by much and were it not for some in-game injuries to Curnow, they may have been knocked off at home.

9. Bulldogs (2-0) Ladder Position: 4th
Another that could be higher after 2 wins, however I am not convinced the sides they beat are any good. Another one that needs to be watched more, but more wins will have them rise. Expected to beat Gold Coast which won't necessarily earn them too many credits.

10. Melbourne Demons (0-2) Ladder Position: 18th
Last on the ladder but prepared to give them one more chance. Have looked awful so far, but the talent is there. Crunch game against the Bombers who look just as desperate. Lose that and they are in real trouble.

11. Hawthorn Hawks (1-1) Ladder Position: 9th
Impressed last week, disappointed in this. They hold spot because they copped some in game injuries and some dodgy free kicks and key moments went against them. Mid table side.

12. Fremantle Dockers (1-1) Ladder Position: 6th
Don't rate Gold Coast, and had of the Suns kicked better Freo wouldn't have been close. It might be a long road trip, but still expected to beat what will be an eventual bottom 4 side.

13. St Kilda Saints (2-0) Ladder Position: 5th
2 wins, but still think they won't win many more. Have been blessed with the draw to start the season but expect them to start dropping to their expected bottom 3 position. Freo away this week is a tough challenge, will earn real credit if they get up.

14. Sydney Swans (0-2) Ladder Position: 14th
Clinging on and could be lower, but they lost to a decent side this week. Expect they might drop in coming weeks, but the chance to get on track against Carlton.

15. Gold Coast Suns (1-1) Ladder Position: 11th
Good win, and should have won by more. This sees them rise, previously had them bottom 2. Will struggle against the Doggies.

16. Carlton Blues (1-1) Ladder Position: 15th
Liked the fight they have shown so far. Bit of bad luck against the Power with the Curnow injury earlyish. They aren't good, but aren't the worst either.

17. North Melbourne (0-2) Ladder Position: 16th
Smashed in round 1, beaten at home in round 2. Not much to get excited about.

18. Essendon Bombers (0-2) Ladder Position: 17th
They have lost all their preseason hype credits. Have never seen such a weak first quarter like they put in against the Saints. They should be embarrassed. Season on the line against the Demons already in round 3. Another meek performance will have them entrenched at the bottom.
Generous on the Tigers there, we are playing so average footy.
 

juss

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Generous on the Tigers there, we are playing so average footy.
Definitely. We have some runs on the board from the last 2 seasons though so while we dont look great, we are still 1-1 and still reckon we are a 5th-8th team just unlucky to play Pies and GWS these weeks.
 

Hobbes

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Richmond v Collingwood +7
Sydney +4 v Adelaide
Essendon +8 v St Kilda
Port Adelaide +27 v Carlton
Geelong +4 v Melbourne
West Coast +12 v GWS
North Melbourne v Brisbane +6
Hawthorn +8 v Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast v Fremantle +1

5/9. Time will tell whether some of these results are weird, or nobody had any idea which teams were good.
Running Total: 9/18

1. Collingwood 24.6
2. Geelong 22.2 (+2)
3. West Coast 21.1 (-1)
4. GWS 8.7 (-1)
5. Brisbane 8.0 (+3)
6. Richmond 6.5 (-1)
7. Adelaide 3.6 (+3)
8. Western Bulldogs 2.6 (+4)
9. Hawthorn 1.9 (-2)
10. Port Adelaide 1.1 (-1)
11. Fremantle 0.3 (+2)
12. Melbourne -0.2 (-6)
13. Essendon -6.2 (-2)
14. St Kilda -6.5 (+2)
15. North Melbourne -9.78
16. Sydney -9.84 (-2)
17. Gold Coast -11.7
18. Carlton -16.0

Adelaide v Geelong +13
Melbourne +6 v Essendon
Carlton v Sydney +1
GWS +7 v Richmond
Brisbane +17 v Port Adelaide
Collingwood +13 v West Coast
Western Bulldogs +20 v Gold Coast
Hawthorn +12 v North Melbourne
Fremantle +16 v St Kilda
 

Final Siren

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It'll be interesting to see how it settles down.

Right now teams going everywhere. Good to see
Yes, it feels like it's going to be one of those seasons where there's a big shift from the previous year, and not just a couple of early rounds of crazy results, so I'm glad Squiggle is responsive.

 

Forward Press

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Yes, it feels like it's going to be one of those seasons where there's a big shift from the previous year, and not just a couple of early rounds of crazy results, so I'm glad Squiggle is responsive.

It is a bit difficult to tell but are the 2016, 2017 and 2018 premiers the worst in attack compared to all recent premiership sides with the exception of Sydney 2005 Final Siren?

It sort of explains the AFL's rule changes to try and encourage more scoring.
 

iluvparis

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It is a bit difficult to tell but are the 2016, 2017 and 2018 premiers the worst in attack compared to all recent premiership sides with the exception of Sydney 2005 Final Siren?

It sort of explains the AFL's rule changes to try and encourage more scoring.
Yup - you are correct.
 
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