Heh, but I reckon North were dominant, too. They kept pumping it inside 50 and their forwards were getting perfectly timed, unhindered leaps at the footy - plenty of which didn't quiiiite come off. Could very easily have been a bigger smashing.
I haven't watched much of Geelong, so don't know how they're playing, but the Cats and Eagles are both a LOT more accurate than everyone else this season. Geelong are converting at 60% and West Coast at 59%, vs a league average of 51%.
I too quickly deleted that game.
Conveniently enough, today there is a Fox Sports article on exactly this!
Does historical data back up that Geelong and West Coast can't sustain this? I only ask because one of the WA journos (Duffield or Quartermaine I think) is always on about how often the Eagles practice skills, including goal kicking. Perhaps they are just benefiting from spending more time on it?
The data I have access to strongly imply that it's unsustainable, yeah.
Yes, and the same effect seems to occur at a team level. It isn't often that a forward finds himself with an easy pass to a teammate in an even better spot, so what mostly happens is that players move the ball around until someone has a 50% or better chance of kicking a goal, then that person takes the shot. If it's an exceptionally skilled player, like Franklin or Betts, they're able to meet that criterion from more difficult chances, and if it's a less skilled player, they need easier chances, but either way, they're all usually looking for that 50%ish chance.
It is a very good example of the statistics not matching the reality on the ground at the time. Because at the end of the day, the criteria that the AFL statistics are created from are supposed to be objective, they have the biases of the compiler built into them.
Yes, although I notice the top 3 models tracked by Squiggle (20% of the field) are all currently beating the best "Expert" from the Herald-Sun's Supertipping panel of 30 people.
These days being very accurate is a sign of a decent game plan IMO.
It probably expected us to beat certain sides (Sydney, GC, NM) by more than we did.
Yep, in Hawthorn's threepeat years 2013-15 they were converting scoring shots at 57.3%, 58.9% and 58.2%. Across the three seasons they kicked at 58.1%, so definitely not impossible for a good team with accurate forwards/game plan that results in quality i50s to stay near 60% over a season or longer.
