Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

BlueandGoldforever

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Apr 10, 2008
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Yep. Would definitely feel more comfortable facing Hawthorn than Melbourne, but still hoping Melbourne win. If they beat us at least they get a chance to play in a gf and break the drought, so it'll be a win win.

Do you actually support West Coast? You seem to want to appease everybody and give up pretty quickly on your ‘apparent team’.
 

Hobbes

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Jul 20, 2006
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Hawthorn v Melbourne +16
Collingwood +1 v GWS

2/2. I'll permit myself a mild gloat, since that's 100% for the last 3 rounds.

1. Melbourne 33.3
2. Richmond 23.9
3. (Geelong 19.0)
4. (GWS 16.0)
5. West Coast 15.7
6. Collingwood 14.2 (+2)
7. (Essendon 12.7) (-1)
8. (Adelaide 11.6) (+1)
9. (Hawthorn 10.8) (-2)

Richmond +10 v Collingwood
West Coast v Melbourne +8
 

Hobbes

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Richmond +10 v Collingwood
West Coast v Melbourne +8
0/2

There goes my clean sweep this finals series.

1. West Coast 27.1 (+4)
2. Melbourne 24.4 (-1)
3. Collingwood 23.4 (+3)
4. Richmond 16.2 (-2)

West Coast +4 v Collingwood.

(Note: I don't take into account home-ground advantage for grand finals. If I did, the prediction would be Collingwood +5.)
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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Gonna make sure the squiggle lowers me into my grave so it can let me down one last time.
Mmm, the problem with being a 65% chance to win is there's a 35% chance you'll lose.

It's a good illustration of why it's easier to forecast the minor premier than the premier. Over the course of a season, there will be many unexpected results, but these will tend to average out, so you can expect a team to finish around a certain position even though you're not sure how they'll get there.

In the finals, though, a single result means everything. And win probabilities tend to be something like 60/40, or even closer. So it's much harder to pick.

It's also why Richmond's chance of winning the flag was less than 50% before the prelim despite being the clear favourite - the chance of winning two matches in a row when you're a 65% chance in each of them is 0.65 x 0.65 = 0.4225 or 42%. You only need to stumble once and it's over.
 
Sep 13, 2015
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Mmm, the problem with being a 65% chance to win is there's a 35% chance you'll lose.

It's a good illustration of why it's easier to forecast the minor premier than the premier. Over the course of a season, there will be many unexpected results, but these will tend to average out, so you can expect a team to finish around a certain position even though you're not sure how they'll get there.

In the finals, though, a single result means everything. And win probabilities tend to be something like 60/40, or even closer. So it's much harder to pick.

It's also why Richmond's chance of winning the flag was less than 50% before the prelim despite being the clear favourite - the chance of winning two matches in a row when you're a 65% chance in each of them is 0.65 x 0.65 = 0.4225 or 42%. You only need to stumble once and it's over.
What chance did the squiggle have of us losing like that though :oops:
 

Pessimistic

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30k Posts 10k Posts HBF's Milk Crate - 70k Posts TheBrownDog
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Funny that now richmond exited, the grand final teams are barely in the premiership zone

This is the third season like that and it’s back to 97-98 to get anything like that.

Consider that 12 teams achieved 12 wins. Above 50% wins you could conclude the league is pretty much equalised
 
Sep 25, 2007
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Funny that now richmond exited, the grand final teams are barely in the premiership zone

This is the third season like that and it’s back to 97-98 to get anything like that.

Consider that 12 teams achieved 12 wins. Above 50% wins you could conclude the league is pretty much equalised


Yeah will this be the least dominant premiership team in squiggle?
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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Yeah will this be the least dominant premiership team in squiggle?
It's a contender. If the Grand Final is close, then yes, the premier will be rated the least dominant of the last 20 years. If they deliver a smashing, though, they could jump North 1999, Sydney 2005, and Richmond 2017.

Certainly it'll be the third year in a row where the premier hasn't established a clear lead over the pack at some point.

Which is actually pretty common, but didn't happen once from 2007-2015, so we're not used to it.

Historically it looks a little clumpy, e.g.:
  • 98-99: relatively even
  • 00-02: Essendon & Brisbane
  • 03-06: even
  • 07-15: Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Collingwood
  • 16-18: even
 

Pessimistic

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30k Posts 10k Posts HBF's Milk Crate - 70k Posts TheBrownDog
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It's a contender. If the Grand Final is close, then yes, the premier will be rated the least dominant of the last 20 years. If they deliver a smashing, though, they could jump North 1999, Sydney 2005, and Richmond 2017.

Certainly it'll be the third year in a row where the premier hasn't established a clear lead over the pack at some point.

Which is actually pretty common, but didn't happen once from 2007-2015, so we're not used to it.

Historically it looks a little clumpy, e.g.:
  • 98-99: relatively even
  • 00-02: Essendon & Brisbane
  • 03-06: even
  • 07-15: Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Collingwood
  • 16-18: even

  • 19-22: Melbourne Collingwood GWS XXXX (maybe)
 
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