Analysis The statistical evolution of the last 5 years.

[RussellEbertHandball]

Less is more is what we tried to do in 2018 by scoring off of rebound 50s and running play passages, and the reason that costed us, in the end, was because we generally got shut down by sides that had a better field balance (Collingwood and West Coast) and we were 50/50 for close games since it all depended on how good our speed was from the packs, along with our efficiency.

We expected the change in 2019 to help create more opportunities to create higher scores, but it failed for the same reason, and that was inefficiency and missed opportunities. The difference is that we didn't win close games since we weren't breaking packs and splitting the field, and instead were getting nailed down due to an underperforming forward line.

My point is that YES, less can be more, but it also becomes a greater risk, and it's pretty evident that if the club had a choice to improve our scoring efficiency, then we wouldn't have had to change our gameplan, but the aim of the new structure was to create more scoring opportunities and have a better-balanced playing field so we weren't lacking in numbers. That doesn't mean the instructions were "Hammer the ball forward" it meant that we needed less running and more leads in the forward line so our entries could come and end quicker.

And keep in mind that 2019 was the ONLY year we scored more behinds than goals, and that would've mattered if we created more opportunities on the forward line, but unlike 2018 it wasn't the forward structure making it difficult, but rather the forward performances, since the absence of Dixon in certain games along with our empty tall stocks, and underperforming smalls excluding a few key players, made the actual matchup really difficult to bypass.

We tried "less is more" and that didn't work, so now it's just "more" and these are solutions to get around the current skill and conversion issues rather than address them directly, and why's that? Well logically if they could they would, and they're not, so why else wouldn't they?

We didn't try less is more for that long in 2018. Sure against the weaker sides we did and got away with it but we went back to old habits against the better sides when the game was on the line.

We tried to change our field play position but we probably dont have the skill and our forward line set up is shithouse because we worry more about defensive pressure than actually winning the ball inside forward 50. That's why if in doubt Ken would pick Neade and/or Sam Gray over a tall.

West Coast 2018 Rd 21 game we actually did a bloody good job for about 3.90 quarters and especially given we had to play for over a quarter with no Dixon, Ryder and Houston, due to injuries, but under pressure when we should have held our nerve and used less is more tactics, we fell back into bad habits of just bomb it into the forward line and get territory under all costs, we blew it, and we were mentally shot after losing again to them after the siren, and we were never going to beat Collingwood or Essendon even if finals were still a very real chance.

All teams get injuries to key players. The better skilled and/or better coached teams get over these problems.

The same issues have been there for years. They don't really address the fundamentals. They just finesse around the edges.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

AwwThatsApples. Mate. Paragraphs.

I just divided the text for a couple of other posts in this thread. They're still beefy paragraphs but it's still manageable.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

We didn't try less is more for that long in 2018. Sure against the weaker sides we did and got away with it but we went back to old habits against the better sides when the game was on the line.

We tried to change our field play position but we probably dont have the skill and our forward line set up is shithouse because we worry more about defensive pressure than actually winning the ball inside forward 50. That's why if in doubt Ken would pick Neade and/or Sam Gray over a tall.

West Coast 2018 Rd 21 game we actually did a bloody good job for about 3.90 quarters and especially given we had to play for over a quarter with no Dixon, Ryder and Houston, due to injuries, but under pressure when we should have held our nerve and used less is more tactics, we fell back into bad habits of just bomb it into the forward line and get territory under all costs, we blew it, and we were mentally shot after losing again to them after the siren, and we were never going to beat Collingwood or Essendon even if finals were still a very real chance.

All teams get injuries to key players. The better skilled and/or better coached teams get over these problems.

The same issues have been there for years. They don't really address the fundamentals. They just finesse around the edges.

Which was actually the same way we played in our 10 point win over Melbourne earlier that year. Getting the numbers back meant that we could at least prevent rapid scoring from the opposition in order to keep ourselves in the game and exchange up to the forward line when we were ready to break the glass, but the difference with that Eagles game was that we started with a blaze and tried to rope the game up early when realistically we would've been better savouring that forward momentum until the end of the game, but after the showdown loss the previous week the instructions were likely shifted to lock away the win to prevent the same result. Then, of course, the injuries came, and we couldn't win as many clearances because we didn't have a proper ruck for the majority of that second half (We lost hitouts in the last quarter 2-13) and without Dixon, our forward 50 entries were easier to cut off. The biggest issue with that game is that with the injuries we couldn't win the stoppage clearances like we normally do and neither could we keep up with the late charge from the Eagles. With the Melbourne game, we played it opposite and started slow, but good enough to stay in the game, until we could apply consecutive scoring to take the game in the end.

All teams get injuries but not all teams get 3 interchanges taken away mid-game with empty gaps in their most important positions. The Eagles had time to lick their wounds and full weeks to find replacements for Nic Nat and Gaff, not only that but we were also working with terrible list depth (defiantly on the coach) which we would have to fix up slowly the following year. Using more or less in either of those games wasn't the difference though, it was actually the way we paced those games out from beginning to end, with that said, doing more gives you more opportunities, and that comes at the sacrifice of energy, so we should be doing more, but we should be doing it at the right time, either put the game away early or savour the momentum and take it to the wire.

A problem we had last year was that our best quarters were always 2nd and 3rd (For most games) And with poor starts and finishes, we didn't pace games ut properly when they were close and shot ourselves in the foot for comfortable losses. Doing more takes more time, doing less doesn't always mean less time though, so that's the area we need to look at. I can't show the exact stats for the quarters we won and lost in our best and worst games last year, but I'll keep looking and see if I can find it.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

I was going to share an update on league stats from Footywire after round 5 to give an idea of where we stand in the league, but not only is it too early for the stats to be efficient, but I won't currently have the time for it. One thing I WILL point out is that following our first loss of the year I identified one key statistic that dictates the game for us, MARKING.

Were we beaten in centre clearances? Wouldn't have mattered if we MARKED from the defence to reset efficiently instead of forcing a stoppage or conceding a score. Did we lose the inside 50 count? Wouldn't have mattered if we MARKED inside the forward 50 to kick a winning score.

Last night was the first time we lost the marks for the game this year, I cannot stress enough how important it is that we mark the ball from every end of the ground, chances are if we win that statistic we also win clearances and inside 50s, but the only way to reset from the defence or create set shots up forward is to MARK THE BALL.

Pin it up on the wall, and don't forget it. WIN THE MARKS PORTS



Oh yeah and kick straight I guess...

 

[AwwThatsApples]

Also, I'd just like to get the message out there in case anyone was interested, but I would much appreciate it if there was someone who would like to continue updating this thread. I will not be posting on Bigfooty anymore after this so I wanted to know if someone else on this board would be happy to update this thread PROVIDED it remains within relevance towards FootyWire and information relevant to team stats. If there are no takers then I guess this thread just dies put, but I thought it would be useful to this board if we can keep it going. Thanks.

 

[GremioPower]

Also, I'd just like to get the message out there in case anyone was interested, but I would much appreciate it if there was someone who would like to continue updating this thread. I will not be posting on Bigfooty anymore after this so I wanted to know if someone else on this board would be happy to update this thread PROVIDED it remains within relevance towards FootyWire and information relevant to team stats. If there are no takers then I guess this thread just dies put, but I thought it would be useful to this board if we can keep it going. Thanks.

Shame, Apples. There are people interested in the subject. I don't think this is going to be an issue.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

Shame, Apples. There are people interested in the subject. I don't think this is going to be an issue.

I hope so. This thread was actually heavily inspired by the thread you made on "The three games that shaped 2019" and made this to explore the statistical strengths and weaknesses of our team for the past five years and onwards. It's not on any champion data levels of complexity, but perhaps just a better way to find areas the club can lift in.

Anyways, just wanted to pop in for one last post to say thanks before moving on. I'd like to keep posting but I currently have other matters in my life that require more attention than social media. Best wishes to this thread and the rest of the board.