The Statistics Thread

[Fossie 32]

So is this right?
Our biggest win ever v Saints - 111 points v the 107 margin in 1978 when we kicked the VFL record
Our 5th biggest win ever
Bonti's highest score by a couple of points
Libba's highest AFL rating points and 17 score involvements our second highest [Johnno holds the record with 20?]
Our highest percentage after R10 - previous best in 1955 - 139.2
Also our highest percentages after R3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 [highest. ever was over 300 after thrashing Richmond in R1 2006, what happened after that? ] X_box_X

Our win against North our biggest margin ever [128] beating the previous highest of 120 v Melb 1985
Bruce's 10 goals was equal 6th highest ever [bettered once by KT and 4 times by Beasley] and only equalled 4 other times; he is on track to be our highest goalkicker since Barry Hall in 2010 and in the top 20 of goalkickers for us in a season. Astro is on 27 just behind Bruce on 30 so may set some records as well

First time we have had two 100 point wins in a season

Most new records since 1985??


What else?

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs - Game Records

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs Goalkicking Records

 

[dogwatch]

So is this right?
Our biggest win ever v Saints - 111 points v the 107 margin in 1978 when we kicked the VFL record
Our 5th biggest win ever
Our win against North our biggest margin ever [128] beating the previous highest of 120 v Melb 1985
Bruce's 10 goals was equal 6th highest ever [bettered once by KT and 4 times by Beasley] and only equalled 4 other times; he is on track to be our highest goalkicker since Barry Hall in 2010 and in the top 20 of goalkickers for us in a season
What else?

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs - Game Records

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs Goalkicking Records

Sounds right. There are more probably more records or top-10 efforts if we scratch a bit deeper too.

For instance I'm hearing that it's the most wildebeest fragments ever found on a footy ground.

 

[X_box_X]

Where does the Bulldogs round 10 percentage of 161.91 rank among the highest round ten percentages of all time?

WCE in 1991 had a percentage of 195 at the round ten mark. I'm guessing this would be close to the benchmark.

 

[Fossie 32]

Where does the Bulldogs round 10 percentage of 161.91 rank among the highest round ten percentages of all time?

WCE in 1991 had a percentage of 195 at the round ten mark. I'm guessing this would be close to the benchmark.

AFL Tables - Season Records

Essendon, Fitzroy and Swans highest after R10 - all around 1900
WC in 1991 next with 189.1
They haven't updated ours. but previous best was in 1955 - 139.2

 

[Bont2Bruce]

ABC radio had a nice but quirky stat on their show this morning:

Until yesterday, the last time Carlton had defeated Hawthorn at the MCG was the day that Sam Walsh was born.

 

[X_box_X]

ABC radio had a nice but quirky stat on their show this morning:

Until yesterday, the last time Carlton had defeated Hawthorn at the MCG was the day that Sam Walsh was born.

Yeah, that was doing the rounds yesterday.

Some of you may be interested in this thread on the main forum (where the Walsh stat was mentioned):

Amazing coincidences in football

What amazing coincidences have there been in football? How about this one: In 1993, Essendon and Carlton play a draw. A Carlton player wearing number 4, has a shot with the scores level, and is unable to register a score. In 2014, Essendon and Carlton play a draw. A Carlton player wearing...

www.bigfooty.com

This was a cool stat I read yesterday:

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Both Buddy and Lynch broke their streak with 1 goal apiece in round 11 (funnily enough in the same game).

 

[Fossie 32]

3 times in history a side has won the first quarter in every one of the first 10 games
Essendon 1906
Collingwood 1913
WB 2021

 

[Black Dog]

3 times in history a side has won the first quarter in every one of the first 10 games
Essendon 1906
Collingwood 1913
WB 2021

And neither Essendon nor Collingwood made the GF in those years, let's hope we are third time lucky!

 

[Fossie 32]

Saints biggest loss at Marvel - previous worst 99 pt in 2002 v Ess

 

[Northernsoul74]

Bloody hell Brad was good.

 

[maddog37]

Bloody hell Brad was good.

Kicked more goals than Daicos did.

 

[Oliver G]

Interesting stat I came across today...

We are ranked 1st for goal accuracy from shots 50m+ out and 18th from shots 0m-15m.

 

[Werewolf]

Interesting stat I came across today...

We are ranked 1st for goal accuracy from shots 50m+ out and 18th from shots 0m-15m.

It's because Naughton can't kick around his body from the pockets. It's the only weakness in his game. He must've hit the post at least 7 or 8 times this year

 

[Oliver G]

It's because Naughton can't kick around his body from the pockets. It's the only weakness in his game. He must've hit the post at least 7 or 8 times this year

Correct, we've hit the post 20 times this year Naughton has 7 of them.

Naughton Behinds
Left: 7
Left Post: 3
Right Post: 4
Right: 7

From 0m-15m Naughton is 1.5

 

[Werewolf]

To be fair, I'm not solely blaming Naughton for the missed shots within 15m, but it seems like he's the worst offender. He fixes that and his accuracy becomes elite!

 

[BEaston]

Correct, we've hit the post 20 times this year Naughton has 7 of them.

Naughton Behinds
Left: 7
Left Post: 3
Right Post: 4
Right: 7

From 0m-15m Naughton is 1.5

If Naughton is 5.1 from <15m, where does that put our rank?

 

[Oliver G]

If Naughton is 5.1 from <15m, where does that put our rank?

We would still be 18th, we are last by some margin. Here is the table for 0m-15m shots...


Player table...

 

[worbod]

We now have 902 wins since joining the VFL in 1925. We have beaten North Melbourne (who also joined the league in 1925) to the milestone of 900 wins and are currently 14 wins ahead of their present total of 888. This is despite the Kangaroos having played 24 extra finals than us and having claimed two extra premierships. The Roos won't reach the 900 barrier this season and possibly not even the one after.

 

[Fossie 32]

Hunter 4% above

 

[Boristown]

Naughton getting some great looks, 58% EX on that amount of shots is crazy.

Would love to see how his EX numbers compare to the likes of McKay, Hawkins and Walker.

 

[Al dente]

When you throw yourself around like Naughton does, risking injury at every contest, its crucial that you convert the opportunities as you're likely to miss some games every year.

I'm surprised he's featured in coaches votes in his poor kicking games, im not sure why coaches reward that, if a backman kicked that badly they'd be dropped (im not saying he should be dropped or scolded, rather that kicking below expectancy in any position on the ground shouldnt be rewarded with praise)

 

[dogwatch]

Lot's of talk about our goal accuracy this week so I thought I'd compile a summary of how we are doing across the board from shot type, distance and angle, along with a player table.

The following is our shot at goal accuracy percentage along with our competition ranking (competition average is in brackets)...

Overall
48% - 9th (48%)

Shot Type

Set Shot
56% - 6th (53%)

On The Run
46% - 6th (43%)

Snap
35% - 16th (40%)

Mark Play On
56% - 11th (56%)

Ground
25% - 15th (40%)

Distance

0m-15m
56% - 18th (77%)

15m-30m
53% - 13th (56%)

31m-40m
45% - 8th (45%)

41m-50m
45% - 5th (41%)

50m+
42% - 1st (27%)

Angle

Left Acute
8% - 17th (32%)

Left Angle
41% - 13th (44%)

Corridor
49% - 10th (52%)

Right Angle
34% - 15th (41%)

Right Acute
33% - 5th (24%)

Now below is our player table for the season with goal accuracy percentage along with expected goal accuracy percentage. For those unfamiliar with how expected score/accuracy is calculated click here to watch a simple but informative explanation.

View attachment 1160903

Bruce is ranked 1st in the competition for goal accuracy for any player with 40+ shots and is over 12% ahead of his expected average which means he is nailing difficult shots. The same can't be said for Naughton who is almost 15% below his expected accuracy, just think how good he will be when he fixes this up. Bontempelli is ahead of his expected accuracy but that's due to him taking a lot of shots on the run from 40m-50m+ which he is nailing most of the time, however his accuracy from 0m-30m is 40% which is certainly not good enough.

Hannan, McNeil and B. Smith are approximately 12-14% below their expected accuracy, while Hunter is around 4% below and Weightman and English are around their expected accuracy.

Excellent post. Thanks OG.

The conclusions I draw from that are:

• Our biggest problem seems to be a horrible rate of conversion from really easy shots (56% within 15m, against comp avge of 77%). That is consistent with the eye test.
• I don't care about players who are below conversion average if they have only had a handful of shots. Let's focus on the ones who are regularly getting the ball in scoring range. Say at least once a game on average. The main culprits here are Naughton, Hannan, Vandermeer, B Smith, Scott, McNeil and Dunkley.
• Also, not a criticism, but the table of players doesn't drill down far enough to reveal some player anomalies. The most obvious example is Bont's figures which look good because he is an excellent shot on the run and from a distance (well above comp or expected average I'd guess) but he is deplorable from easy set shots close to goal. He should be very much under the microscope for that and should not get off lightly because of his good long range goals. It may well have cost us the win in an "8-point game" last Friday. It just seems such an easily fixable problem. My guess is he has about a 95% conversion rate on those at training. English might be another I suspect, but not as glaring. And Naughton definitely, but his averages are already sub-par overall.
• The other thing that makes it hard to draw conclusions is that we only have percentages and AFL ranking not absolute numbers in each of the team-wide categories. Again let's not sweat the stuff where the total numbers are small and a 15-20% improvement might equate to only two or three more goals over the season so far. Let's look instead at where we create our greatest number of opportunities but fall well short of the competition average or expected score.

 

[Fossie 32]

I guess expected score is based on competition average which includes some innacurate kickers so we would hope / aim for our players to be better than that?
It looks like of those who have had a decent number of shots, 5 are above av, 5 about av and 7 under. Wonder how many shots we have had from outside 50

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I guess expected score is based on competition average which includes some innacurate kickers so we would hope / aim for our players to be better than that?
It looks like of those who have had a decent number of shots, 5 are above av, 5 about av and 7 under. Wonder how many shots we have had from outside 50

I'm not so sure that there should be an "expectation" that our team as a whole is better than average, but it should just be average in accuracy. There's very few teams in the 10 or so years that we've had these expected accuracy stats that you can say with statistical certainty beyond just randomness are a better than average goalkicking team: Hawthorn's premiership teams in part because their small forwards were so good at kicking goals whilst winning contested possessions and under pressure (think the best version of Puopolo and Rioli) and West Coast of the last few years mainly because Kennedy is such a reliable shot for goal.

Apart from that - of 180 instances of team seasons over 10 years - virtually none of them have kicked more or less accurately than what can simply be explained by the statistical equivalent of flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads 55 of them (ie that doesn't the coin biased to heads, just like kicking a goal 55% of the time when the league average is 50% doesn't necessarily make you more accurate).