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The Statistics Thread

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We play Adelaide in game 1998. Same shit, different smell.
 
First crack sometimes has some nice info in-between the fluff. We've had 7 players play every game. Melbourne have 12, Geelong 5, Port 8, Brisbane 10 and Sydndey 6. If you instead say players that have played every game or only missed 1-2, we've had 13. Melbourne 17, Geelong 14, Port 13, Brisbane 15 and Sydney 14.

In this segment David King sort of corrected himself and has said our ommisions aren't by choice but we've made changes not necessarily due to injuries. Puzzled at what he could possibly mean I've tried to break down our ins and outs every week. Can I just say I hate the way they list the sub? Round 2 and 9 West was out as 'managed' but really was an unused sub. Cavarra on the other hand is an ommision in round 6, and I can only assume it's different because he was a used sub? Lipinski is dropped to the sub, subbed in, and promoted back into the starting 22 in the space of 3 weeks but never recorded as an in or out. Then mid way through the year the include 'medi-sub' as an out instead of using managed/rested. But I'm not even sure that's true cause Port's never listed someone out as a medi-sub, so I don't know if they just don't bother and do it as ommitted or if they just haven't dropped their subs since then. As if listening to King talk doesn't confuse me enough.

So there's a little bit of an error in that when a sub was managed/rested in the first half of the year I counted that but when they were an out due to 'medi-sub' I ignored it. Whatever, it should only be a tiny rounding error.

Outs due to ommisions: 17
Outs due to management: 5
Outs due to injuries: 15
Outs due to suspensions: 1
Out due to quarantine: 1

Around 45% of our changes are forced. A real quick and ugly round up is

Melbourne 25 changes, 10 forced (40%)
Geelong 41 changes, 21 forced (50%)
Port 37 changes, 19 forced (50%)
Brisbane 29 changes, 16 forced (55%)
Sydney 44 changes, 16 forced (35%)

If anything I think our forced/unforced changes is pretty normal. We just ended up using more of our list than other sides because Bevo likes to try new things.

(And just because it was annoying me that this included subs in the first half of the year but not the second, the percentages if you included medi-subs will have Melbourne drop to 35%, Brisbane to 50%, and the rest keep to the same rounding.)
 

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During this year we have set a personal record many times for our highest percentage at the end of each particular round. After today's 49-point win against Adelaide we now have our highest percentage after round 20. Our previous highest had been 133.9 after round 20, 1992. The oldest Bulldogs percentage which has been beaten was when we finished with 142.4 after round 17 this year, which outdid our previous best round 17 total of 141.7 from 1953. I would have liked to see that percentage stay put among all the 21st century percentages: it's been overtaken by only 0.7 %, but never mind. I have bolded all the instances of 2021 setting a new highest percentage and will update the table as the remaining three rounds unfold, as it looks likely those percentages from 1992 are going to be toppled (except round 24 of course).


[TABLE=centered]
[TR]
[TD]round[/TD][TD]highest percentage[/TD][TD]season[/TD][TD]ladder position[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD][TD]321.2[/TD][TD]2006[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD][TD]264.9[/TD][TD]2016[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD][TD]181.6[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD][TD]171.8[/TD][TD]2016[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD][TD]178.6[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD][TD]175.3[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD][TD]157.0[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD][TD]150.2[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD][TD]146.9[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD][TD]161.9[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD][TD]150.6[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD][TD]150.0[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD][TD]150.0[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD][TD]144.7[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD][TD]148.6[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD][TD]147.6[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD][TD]142.4[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD][TD]141.3[/TD][TD]2010[/TD][TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD][TD]140.3[/TD][TD]2010[/TD][TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD][TD]142.0[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD][TD]138.1[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD][TD]134.5[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD][TD]132.8[/TD][TD]2021[/TD][TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24[/TD][TD]129.8[/TD][TD]1992[/TD][TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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Bailey Smith has currently kicked 8 goals in finals matches for the Bulldogs.
Clay Smith finished with 8 finals goals for the Bulldogs.
Rohan Smith finished with 8 finals goals for the Bulldogs.

Roarke Smith currently has 2 finals goals. I'm expecting big things from him in our first final this year.
 
Gees, this is concerning.

1649391724774.png

Even more concerning is this only goes back to 2013...

Looking beyond that:

2012: Lost to Geelong twice
2011: Lost to Collingwood
2010: Lost to Geelong
2009: Defeated Hawthorn by 88 pts

That is depressing. 0-13 in our last 13 H&A matches against the reigning premier.
 

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With all the trolling and whining about free kicks I thought I'd have a look at the historical record. All the stats are from AFL Tables.

Here is the WB record (blue columns) and that of the premiership side (orange) for each of the 32 completed seasons from 1990 to now. The competition was called the VFL before 1990. After that the competition moved to become a truly national one so it's a reasonable year to call the start of the modern era.

1650941223595.png
NB: Ladder position is after the H&A rounds, not after the finals series.

Some general observations about what the stats say:
  • In 32 seasons we only finished with a negative difference (more Frees Against than Frees For) on seven occasions. Expected result would be 16.
  • We finished as the side with the greatest free kick percentage (FF/FA) on 9 occasions out of 32. On average it should only be about twice in 32 years.
  • Our overall average (FF/FA) over that period is 109.01%. To look at it another way, for every 100 frees awarded we get 54.5 and the opposition gets 45.5.
  • In six of those nine years where we ranked first for FF/FA we made the finals but they also included three poor years:
    • Second on ladder - 1
    • Third on ladder - 2
    • Fifth - 1 (played the GF)
    • Seventh - 2 (one of these we were Premiers)
    • Tenth - 1
    • Twelfth - 1
    • 16th (wooden spoon) - 1
  • The Premiers each year averaged about what you'd expect: 99.85% over 32 years. 14 had a positive difference, 17 had a negative difference and one was exactly even (no difference).
  • The WB are the only Premiers in that period to finish top in the FF/FA% in the same year. However on three other occasions the Premiers finished in the top three for FF/FA%.
  • Since Richmond's period of dominance began (2017) their ranking in FF/FA% has been:
    • 2017 - 18th
    • 2018 - 18th
    • 2019 - 13th
    • 2020 - 17th
    • 2021 - 18th
    • and so far in 2022 they are 18th again.
  • More free kicks seemed to be awarded in a match in the 1990s, especially before 1995. For some reason it dropped from about 1995-2000 and remained at lower levels for ten years or so but it has seen a slight uptick in the last decade (ignoring the shortened Covid season of 2020).
What does it tell us?
  • Yes, we are definitely a statistical outlier.
  • No, there doesn't appear to be any strong correlation between having a good free kick differential and on-field success. If anything there might be some negative correlation (more Premiers have a poor free kick differential, especially when you look at Richmond in recent years).
Why are we a statistical outlier?
Good question! It doesn't appear to have made a huge difference although no doubt some opposition club trolls will see it differently. It doesn' really suggest any one WB coach dictated a playing style that was more (or less) likely to concede frees. It could be that we have often had smaller and lighter players but that's pretty tenuous and I haven't any solid evidence to support it.​
​
What's going on with Richmond?
Another good question. It's hard to call it a coincidence over five seasons. Maybe it's their swarming style. Maybe they just have a philosophy of go hard, go often. Pressure is a huge part of the game and the side that applies it better and more consistently will win most of the time. Yes you give away a few more frees doing that but on balance perhaps it pays off handsomely with more loose ball and plenty of speedy crumbers to pick up the scraps. Yet by contrast there's not much to suggest that Hawthorn's era of so-called "unsociable football" generated more frees against than normal.​
​
​
Stay tuned. I'll post a bit more in a while - the home and away variance in the full record going back to 1965.​
 
Free Kicks 1965 to the present (Rd 5, 2022) - Who has the greatest home ground advantage?

Surprise, surprise! It's the West Coast Eagles, followed by Port. Then us.

In home games every club except Hawthorn (LOL) has received more free kicks than they have given away. Hmmmmm ... :think:

1650945144463.png
The second column shows FF / FA as a percentage since 1965.
Brisbane appears twice in this table - once as the Bears and once as the Lions.
 
Free Kicks - does anybody do any good away from home?

Yes, the Western Bulldogs do. No other club apart from the defunct Fitzroy has won more free kicks than they have conceded while playing away. Although Collingwood comes close.

1650945607699.png
 
Free Kicks in Finals 1965 to 2021

You can ignore the Bears (only four finals so not a good enough sample). Port do best with free kicks in finals, followed by the Western Bulldogs.

1650945863556.png
 
All Free Kicks 1965 to Rd5 2022

So who has the best differential of Frees For to Frees Against in the last 57 years? Why, the Western Bulldogs of course!

Is this because of a VFL/AFL conspiracy or because the umpires just like to pay us free kicks all the time? Of course not. That's preposterous over six decades.

Are some teams fairer than others? Are some teams consistently "dirtier"? <cough, cough> Hawthorn, GWS <cough, cough>
Maybe, but over 60 years that's an extraordinarily long time for a trend to prevail. Or is it the "culture" that clubs like to boast about so much? You know, like Bloods culture ;).

The West Coast, Western/Whitten Oval and Victoria Park home crowds have probably been an intimidating factor. However for all the Melbourne clubs this would have been neutralised over the last 25 years since the "home" games have converged on just two venues - the MCG and Docklands.

1650948981861.png
 
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Goals kicked against defenders would be an interesting stat
 

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Oliver Gigacz said:
Your wish...

View attachment 1384567

Player match-ups are recorded at the start of each stoppage.
Click to expand...

Interesting. In theory our best backline would be:

R. West | S. Martin | L. Butler
R. Garcia | J. Schache | R. McComb

With that backline we could expect to concede 0 goals per game.
I wonder if our data analysts are across this particular stat?

Also worth mentioning that, despite one particular poster questioning the defensive side of his game, JUH has never had a goal kicked on him.
 
Oliver Gigacz

English v Gawn in the ruck at CBs 2020, 2021 & 2022 Attendances, taps won, taps to adv, scores/goals from CB for and against

English v Darcy (Freo) in the ruck at CBs 2020 (?), 2021 Attendances, taps won, taps to adv, scores/goals from CB for and against

Thanks in advance
 
Oliver Gigacz said:
I've had a look I don't believe I have access to match player v player numbers but here are the matchups from those matches (Gawn didn't play in 2020)...

English v Gawn
View attachment 1388554

English v Darcy
View attachment 1388555
HO = hitouts, HOTA = hitouts to advantage, HOS = hitouts sharked

Scores From Centre Bounces

Melbourne
R1 2022 vs. Melbourne
WB: 3.1 (19)
ME: 1.1 (7)

GF 2021 vs. Melbourne
WB: 1.2 (8)
ME: 7.3 (45)

R19 2021 vs. Melbourne
WB: 1.1 (7)
ME: 2.0 (12)

R11 2021 vs. Melbourne
WB: 1.0 (6)
ME: 2.4 (16)

Fremantle
R12 2021 vs. Fremantle
WB: 2.3 (15)
FR: 2.3 (15)

R18 2020 vs. Fremantle
WB: 3.1 (19)
FR: 0.1 (1)

Let me know if you need anything else.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the stats:thumbsu:

One thing I'd note is that the HOTAs are a % of Hit Outs won. Over the 2021 season where we've played Melbourne, English at 22% (8/35) trails Gawn at 31% (36/113). However, if you look at HOTA as a % of RC, English at 4.2% (6/143) and Gawn at 20.8%(37/178) is instructive. The volume of HOTAs in Melbourne's favour is significant. 5:1

Melbourne also generated at least 18 shots on goal from CBs to our 6. 3:1

Rnd 1 this year English 9.5% (6/63) with Gawn 15.1% (8/53) appears to have made inroads and shots on goal 4:2 from CBs in our favour. Whether it's an outlier remains to be seen.

I didn't watch Rnd 1 so can't offer an explanation as to where the gap was closed in terms of effectiveness. Timmy and the onballers improved or set up differently or did Gawn and co have an off day?
 
After witnessing our streak of 13 unanswered goals against Hawthorn on Friday I became interested in how many other streaks of 10 or more unanswered goals I could find. Most of what I discovered came from the AFL Tables website and I was able to use YouTube to find a few older matches. Obviously, this table is nowhere near complete. For example, the match against Richmond in round 5, 1983 where we scored 10 goals to none in the opening quarter would feature in such a list but without knowing who kicked the first goal of the second quarter it is impossible to say whether our unanswered goal streak in that game was 10 or 11 or possibly 12. I hope I haven't left out anything obvious.

Unanswered
goals​
Opponent​
Game​
Scores before the unanswered streak​
Scores prior to opponent scoring their next goal​
21​
Essendonround 21, 20190.2 (2) vs 1.0 (6)21.11 (137) vs 1.8 (14)
14​
Hawthornround 14, 20090.0 (0) vs 0.0 (0)14.10 (94) vs 0.4 (4)
13​
Hawthornround 15, 20221.4 (10) vs 5.4 (34)14.10 (94) vs 5.11 (41)
12​
Fitzroyround 12, 19928.5 (53) vs 6.3 (39)20.13 (133) vs 6.11 (47)
12​
Melbourneround 20, 20150.0 (0) vs 0.0 (0)12.4 (76) vs 0.2 (2)
12​
Greater Western Sydneyround 22, 20197.3 (45) vs 9.6 (60)19.12 (126) vs 9.11 (65)
FINAL SCORE
12​
North Melbourneround 3, 20215.2 (32) vs 3.2 (20)17.13 (115) vs 3.8 (26)
11​
Gold Coastround 5, 20210.0 (0) vs 0.0 (0)11.4 (70) vs 0.3 (3)
10​
Fitzroyround 5, 19530.0 (0) vs 0.0 (0)10.6 (66) vs 0.0 (0)
10​
St. Kildaround 13, 197823.12 (150) vs 16.10 (106)33.15 (213) vs 16.10 (106)
FINAL SCORE
10​
Essendonround 5, 19855.8 (38) vs 6.7 (43)15.16 (106) vs 6.12 (48)
10​
Adelaideround 5, 19942.2 (14) vs 4.5 (29)12.4 (76) vs 4.6 (30)
10​
Port Adelaideround 7, 20062.0 (12) vs 1.0 (6)12.7 (79) vs 1.4 (10)
10​
Collingwood1st elimination final, 20066.6 (42) vs 6.8 (44)16.10 (106) vs 6.14 (50)
10​
North Melbourneround 9, 20100.0 (0) vs 0.0 (0)10.1 (61) vs 0.8 (8)
10​
Port Adelaideround 22, 20110.0 (0) vs 0.0 (0)10.3 (63) vs 0.0 (0)
10​
St. Kildaround 20, 20184.6 (30) vs 7.4 (46)14.12 (96) vs 7.9 (51)
 
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