THE STATS DON’T LIE: Coll can’t score vs finals-calibre teams

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Crypt Keeper

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I borrowed this from Nick’s Collingwood forum:

We really struggle to kick goals against the good (finals-calibre) teams. We just don’t have the size up forward or the composure through wing-to-F50 to either make something out of nothing or capitalise on our half chances, because the opposition is too good to allow us to fumble our way to a goal like the lesser teams. Here are our last 13 games vs finals teams:

2018
Haw 9.13.67 (L)
GWS 12.7.79 (L)
Rich 10.10.70 (L)
Geel 5.15.45 (L)
Melb 20.13.133 (W)
Rich 9.13.67 (L)
WC 12.5.77 (L)
Syd 10.11.71 (L)
—————
WC 10.10.70 (L)
GWS 9.15.69 (W)
Rich 15.7.97 (W)
WC 11.8.74 (L)


2019
Geel 9.11.65 (L)


Over the past 13 games vs finals calibre teams, Collingwood has averaged:

Goals: 10.8
Behinds: 9.1
Score: 74.2
( Scoring Shots: 19.9 )


Take out the anomaly that was the destroyation of Melbourne on QB, and it looks like this:

Goals: 10.1
Behinds: 8.8
Score: 69.1
( Scoring Shots: 18.
8 )

THAT’S SOME DAMN UGLY READING!

It’s probably worth considering this evidence before making any further outlandish 30+ winning margin predictions vs the ‘good’ sides.

In summary...we’re in a bit of spot of bother this season considering our draw.

Something has to shange, but I don’t know what that is, because tonight was more of the same ‘deer in headlights panic football’ vs another good team when the goals are within sight.

Bucks and players have their work cut out.
 
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Crypt Keeper

Debutant
May 9, 2005
141
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Melbourne
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Collingwood
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Detroit Pistons
So a good team is a team that we lose to as we don't score enough as opposed to a bad team where we score enough therefore they are a bad team. I think I follow...
My post didn’t save properly. Stats are up now...
 

sirlothie

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2007
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The forward line needs rejigging IMO. It's not the personnel, it just doesn't seem cohesive when we are going forward, it seems to be each man for himself rather than working together which probably gets found out against better sides. As example when you think of Hawthorn's forward line they always seem to be palming off goals to each other, we don't really do that. It's whoever gets it goes all the way. And we don't get enough midfield goals.
 

nahnah

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 26, 2012
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West Coast and Geelong clearly have our number and we need to try something different vs them, the 2 Richmond games we ran out of legs in the last quarter both times because we were multiple players down on the bench, Hawks we were off target all night, Swans game was just a classic dour SCG slog, first Giants game we died in the last quarter (we were down multiple players again) and the final vs the giants we again kicked horrendously at goal.
 

TTRRAAVVIISS

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Jun 24, 2014
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I told ya so... Hawthorn have rebuilt since 2015 and are like 13-3 in games where the winning margin is less than 6 points. Collingwood is like 3-13.

Its not rocket science it’s coaching. What were we, 29 points up 25 mins in?? That’s like the Atalanta Falcons 28-3. Just ******* woeful coaching we lost in red time last year.

Buckley has read the theories Bill Walsh’s ‘the score looks after it self” which he quoted at 3/4 time but he’s failed to understand many disciples of Walsh failed. Same as Bellichick disciples have. You either have it or u don’t.

And bucks ain’t got a clue man. You can cover for his negatives by hiring longmuir or Maxwell but sooner or later his lack of tactic/strategic nous is gonna get found out.

Bill Bellichick spent 12 months scheming a play that was only required with 26 on the clock in a Super Bowl. His diligence won Pats the title. How was the diligence in the last 6 mins of GF 2018??? Woeful...
 

Lonerism

Rookie
Mar 22, 2019
48
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Collingwood
Our forwards rarely led except for WHE. VERY easy for opponents to stop by clogging our 50.

Most of our shots are in play or out the back. 8 marks in our forward tonight.
 

TTRRAAVVIISS

All Australian
Jun 24, 2014
706
1,192
AFL Club
Collingwood
I borrowed this from Nick’s Collingwood forum:

We really struggle to kick goals against the good (finals-calibre) teams. We just don’t have the size up forward or the composure through wing-to-F50 to either make something out of nothing or capitalise on our half chances, because the opposition is too good to allow us to fumble our way to a goal like the lesser teams. Here are our last 13 games vs finals teams:

2018
Haw 9.13.67 (L)
GWS 12.7.79 (L)
Rich 10.10.70 (L)
Geel 5.15.45 (L)
Melb 20.13.133 (W)
Rich 9.13.67 (L)
WC 12.5.77 (L)
Syd 10.11.71 (L)
—————
WC 10.10.70 (L)
GWS 9.15.69 (W)
Rich 15.7.97 (W)
WC 11.8.74 (L)


2019
Geel 9.11.65 (L)


Over the past 13 games vs finals calibre teams, Collingwood has averaged:

Goals: 10.8
Behinds: 9.1
Score: 74.2
( Scoring Shots: 19.9 )


Take out the anomaly that was the destroyation of Melbourne on QB, and it looks like this:

Goals: 10.1
Behinds: 8.8
Score: 69.1
( Scoring Shots: 18.
8 )

THAT’S SOME DAMN UGLY READING!

It’s probably worth considering this evidence before making any further outlandish 30+ winning margin predictions vs the ‘good’ sides.

In summary...we’re in a bit of spot of bother this season considering our draw.

Something has to shange, but I don’t know what that is, because tonight was more of the same ‘deer in headlights panic football’ vs another good team when the goals are within sight.

Bucks and players have their work cut out.
**** yeah! Worst coach we every had. Despite what these muppets say, 2018 on the MCG was the most UNLOSABLE GF in Collingwood history. It’s insane pies fans sit back and swallow the mediocrity simply cause Eddie tells us too.

Adam Simpson out coaching a Collingwood coach... Seriously.... Adam ******* Simpson got his midfield to dominate Collingwoods A+ Grade midfield on GF day...

At what point would have Matthews, Malthouse or Millane or Banks or Heath Shaw or the Browns allowed a mid fielder all alone on HFF to take a mark?

Never ******* happened cause in red time ya gotta be accountable. No ******* chance we win a flag under Nathan
 
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Leviathan Pie

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Oct 7, 2014
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Tonight we really struggled tactically going forward, it was hap-hazard & just plain messy. Again situations where our forwards were sucked up the ground, and on a fast break we had no-where to go.

Nathan has something to fix, here.
 

Lonerism

Rookie
Mar 22, 2019
48
9
AFL Club
Collingwood
Tonight we really struggled tactically going forward, it was hap-hazard & just plain messy. Again situations where our forwards were sucked up the ground, and on a fast break we had no-where to go.

Nathan has something to fix, here.
I get the feeling his personal issues have impacted the club greater than we know. Time will tell.
 

Darkyprotector

Premiership Player
Apr 10, 2017
3,753
1,741
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I told ya so... Hawthorn have rebuilt since 2015 and are like 13-3 in games where the winning margin is less than 6 points. Collingwood is like 3-13.

Its not rocket science it’s coaching. What were we, 29 points up 25 mins in?? That’s like the Atalanta Falcons 28-3. Just ******* woeful coaching we lost in red time last year.

Buckley has read the theories Bill Walsh’s ‘the score looks after it self” which he quoted at 3/4 time but he’s failed to understand many disciples of Walsh failed. Same as Bellichick disciples have. You either have it or u don’t.

And bucks ain’t got a clue man. You can cover for his negatives by hiring longmuir or Maxwell but sooner or later his lack of tactic/strategic nous is gonna get found out.

Bill Bellichick spent 12 months scheming a play that was only required with 26 on the clock in a Super Bowl. His diligence won Pats the title. How was the diligence in the last 6 mins of GF 2018??? Woeful...
Who gives a **** about NFL coaches

Talk tonight
Pendels , grundy, degoey , Phillips and treloer all missed sodas that most on here would kick

Sure Geelong did miss a couple but we win

Coach isn't kicking
Game plan holds up
Poor selections , top heavy no run

Couldn't play guys where suited
Give the bucks bashing a rest
 

Darkyprotector

Premiership Player
Apr 10, 2017
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Tonight we really struggled tactically going forward, it was hap-hazard & just plain messy. Again situations where our forwards were sucked up the ground, and on a fast break we had no-where to go.

Nathan has something to fix, here.
Yeah drop a few overrated players
Get rid of 1 large back out of 4 (more run)

I've copped a bit but again
Checkers can't mark overhead and dines out on easy teams
Langdon and aish give no run. Have no dare and are slow disposers and iffy
Phillips and treleor love easy ball and waste it no composure
Sidey hates a tag

All Our mids didnt work both ways
Mayne defensively covering their arse like last year
But

Adams tough
Seir. Ditto
Wells class
Whe class
Dunne Sack and greenwood tough

Totally different team

It ain't over
 

sirlothie

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2007
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Yeah drop a few overrated players
Get rid of 1 large back out of 4 (more run)

I've copped a bit but again
Checkers can't mark overhead and dines out on easy teams
Langdon and aish give no run. Have no dare and are slow disposers and iffy
Phillips and treleor love easy ball and waste it no composure
Sidey hates a tag

All Our mids didnt work both ways
Mayne defensively covering their arse like last year
But

Adams tough
Seir. Ditto
Wells class
Whe class
Dunne Sack and greenwood tough

Totally different team

It ain't over
Who is Checkers?
 

sirlothie

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2007
11,365
8,199
Melbourne
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Collingwood
Yeah drop a few overrated players
Get rid of 1 large back out of 4 (more run)

I've copped a bit but again
Checkers can't mark overhead and dines out on easy teams
Langdon and aish give no run. Have no dare and are slow disposers and iffy
Phillips and treleor love easy ball and waste it no composure
Sidey hates a tag

All Our mids didnt work both ways
Mayne defensively covering their arse like last year
But

Adams tough
Seir. Ditto
Wells class
Whe class
Dunne Sack and greenwood tough

Totally different team

It ain't over
Wait let me guess, Mihocek, haha good one.
 

nowon

Draftee
Aug 20, 2009
18
19
Neither here nor there
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Collingwood
Tonight we really struggled tactically going forward, it was hap-hazard & just plain messy. Again situations where our forwards were sucked up the ground, and on a fast break we had no-where to go.

Nathan has something to fix, here.
This is exactly what I was thinking walking out of the ground...

My thoughts were :

- It’s only round 1

- We were incredibly rusty in ‘connection’ (as Nathan said in the post-match.

- Why didn’t he pick Greenwood to run with and niggle Selwood all night (since it seems to put him off).

- Since De Goey had little influence to half-time - why not send him into the middle to get some touch? Even if he doesn’t have the tank yet - surely a 5 minute spell could have be an option? Heck put Varcoe in there to try and rush it out.

- What is our game plan? I can see from kick-ins we seem to set Grundy and Cox at 65m on the left or right.

- I have a feeling that we want to use run and dash and use the corridor - but Geelong knew this - and shut it down - the ball-carrier would keep looking for handball link-ups until Geelong pressed it into a road-block. Turnover - then left to chase them back to their goal.

- I agree re: forwards being pushed up - meaning that if we won possession again - often the ball-carrier had to wait until someone ran in front to present an option.

(Remember seeing situations where we won the ball back - and thought - that’s good - oh wait - ficken now he needs to wait for a forward line to emerge).

- We lacked efficiency in delivering into F50 - and Geelong cut us up in transition and were slicker in forward entry. Multiple times they took marks outside the 50 and then waited - and passed to a forward leading to a good space.

(By contrast, when we did the same our passes seemed to either be bombs or directed to forwards leading out of pockets to the boundary).

Anyway - like you said - Nathan has a bit of work to do. But the boys need to start cracking in (running two ways and pressure) and clicking (when they have the ball) to be a headache for the competition this year.

Floreat Pica
 

spartan-magpie

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Oct 28, 2006
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It's definitely an issue, I wonder when we will start recruiting KPF again?

We’ve already got one, he’s being played down back though.

I’m still burning that sier hasn’t played. The club needs to get him on the right page and into the middle.
 

well left

Club Legend
May 3, 2008
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Agree with others that a lack of KPF is an issue against the best teams. We’re relying on Cox to become that it seems.

Love what Mihocek does and his effort but he doesn’t play like a KPF. If he can’t get that going we are limited in replacements. Reid is one but the other option is one of Moore or Roughead once Dunn is ready.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

lenny20

Club Legend
Mar 12, 2007
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On the flipside to this argument... our last ten "points against" versus finals teams:

Geel 9.12.66 (L)
Melb 14.7.91 (W)
Rich 15.12.102 (L)
WC 16.9.105 (L)
Syd 11.7.73 (L)
WC 12.14.86 (L)
GWS 9.5.59 (W)
Rich 8.10.58 (W)
WC 11.13.75 (L)
Geel 10.12.72 (L)

So we've only conceded 100 points twice (and both times by less than a goal) for an average of 78.7 points against. As opposed to an average of 76.8 points for over the same period.

Less than two points difference.

It's almost as if the better teams structure up more defensively, with more competent defensive players, making for a lower scoring match for both sides?

I'd love it if we could kick away more against better sides, don't get me wrong, and maybe we need to learn more efficiency in attack. But let's be real. It's not like a finals side has blown us out of the water since maybe the Hawks or Tigers games of early 2018.

It's less a reflection of our forward line and more a reflection of how the better teams (including us) approach the tactical side of the game.
 
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